This report considers the scientific opportunities and problems for paleoclimatic research for three time intervals, 0-1000 yr, 0-30,000 yr, and 0-1 my. Each of these intervals is appropriate to understanding different parts of the climate problem. The most recent interval is one for which there exists the possibility of determining year-by-year changes in certain parts of the climatic system over a time span which overlaps the instrumental record. The interval 0 to 30,000 yr is one for which the response of many parts of the climate system during a major change in climate can be examined, and for which laC dating provides good chronological control. The interval 0 to 1.000,000 yr is one for which there is reasonably good chronological control. a well-developed global record of changes in the ocean, and the opportunity of investigating glacial-interglacial changes in global climate which appear to have a cyclic or quasi-cyclic component.

Spatial anomalies of tree-ring chronologies can provide information on high-frequency spatial anomalies in paleoclimate representing droughts, colder-than-normal intervals, and other synoptic-scale features. Examples are presented in which 65 tree-ring chronologies are calibrated with spatial anomalies in North American meteorological records of seasonal temperature and precipitation, and with sea-level pressure over the North American and North Pacific sectors. Multivariate transfer functions are obtained that scale and convert the past spatial variations in the tree-ring record into estimates of past variations in the meteorological record. Objective verifications of the reconstructions are obtained using independent meteorological observations for time periods other than those used in the calibration. Historical information or other proxy data from the 19th century are also used for verifying the decadal (or longer) and regional reconstructions and for identifying strengths and weaknesses of the various sources of information. The reconstructed winter and summer temperatures for the United States and southwestern Canada and winter precipitation for the Columbia Basin and California during the 17th through 19th centuries were found to differ from the 20th century means with large-scale variations evident. Extreme winters similar to 1976–77 are also identified and found to be more frequent in the past, especially in the 17th century. The climatic reconstructions in this time domain are dominated by high-frequency, synoptic-scale fluctuations that can be interpreted as cyclonic-scale changes in atmospheric circulation. Such reconstructions may be useful for testing various climatic models and estimates developed primarily from 20th-century meteorological data against the longer estimated record for the 17th through 19th centuries.

The development of reliable paleoclimatic maps at a global scale requires data at the following three levels of analysis: (1) well-recorded observations of evenly positioned, well-dated geological evidence (Level I), (2) paleoclimatic estimates derived from this evidence by well-defined quantitative repeatable methods (Level II), and (3) maps synthesizing the estimates from several independent sources of geological evidence (Level III). Our paper describes much of the currently available paleoclimatic data from unglaciated terrestrial areas at ca. 18,000 yr B.P. and illustrates the quantity and quality of the data at both the Level I and the Level II stages of analysis. Although the scarcity of well-dated evidence for this time period precluded any major Level III syntheses of the information, comparisons were drawn where possible between the geological evidence and the climatic conditions simulated by general-circulation model experiments of Gates (1976a, b) and Manabe and Hahn (1977). Of the more than 320 sites with data from 18,000 yr B.P., only 65 are well-dated with bracketing dates within the interval of 23,000 to 13,000 yr B.P., whereas about 100 are undated or poorly dated. We concentrated our survey on palynological and paleobotanical evidence and also thoroughly reviewed the evidence for water levels in lakes at 18,000 yr B.P. In areas with few of these sources of evidence, data on former snowlines, periglacial features, and eolian deposits were included, but the survey of these data is far from complete. Maps of the assembled data reveal the consistency of the paleoclimatic estimates in “data-rich” areas and also show which areas required additional information. The maps show that conditions were colder than present at 18,000 yr B.P. for all sites with temperature estimates. Estimated temperature depressions varied from ca. 1° to 12°C or more, depending on the location of the sample, the type of geological evidence, and the method of temperature estimation. Interpreted hydrological conditions were more variable spatially than the temperature estimates. The southwestern U.S. was moister than present, whereas the southeast may have been drier. Europe and the northern Mediterranean across to Afghanistan were drier than present, but northwest Africa was wetter. Australia was mainly drier than present, but several sites there as well as in Africa show significant climatic changes between 21,000 year period and 16,000 yr B.P. This latter evidence suggests that considerable variability may have occurred during the several thousand-centered on 18,000 yr B.P. Accurate time control is therefore required for the geological data used to study the climate dynamics of 18,000 yr ago. Large portions of South America and Asia as well as significant portions of the other continents lack the data base, or at least the well-dated base, required to define the 18,000 yr B.P. climate. In the few areas where comparisons were made with the Ice Age climates simulated by general-circulation models, general agreement existed between the geological evidence and the model simulations. Many critical comparisons were thwarted, however, by the lack of model simulations for all seasons at 18,000 yr B.P. Difficulty in validating precipitation anomalies in the tropics also arose because surface-albedo values, which are a vital input to the general circulation models, are estimated from the same evidence that is used to validate the results of the models.

This paper presents selected world maps of lake-level fluctuations since 30,000 yr B.P. These are based on a literature survey of 141 lake basins with radiocarbon-dated chronologies. The resulting patterns are subcontinental in scale and show orderly variations in space and time. They reflect substantial changes in continental precipitation, evaporation, and runoff, which are due to glacial/interglacial fluctuations in the atmospheric and oceanic circulations. In the tropics, high lake levels are essentially an interglacial or interstadial phenomenon, although there are important exceptions. Since extensive lakes during the Holocene corresponded with relatively high sea-surface temperatures, and therefore presumably with high evaporation rates on land, they are interpreted as the result of higher precipitation. Tropical aridity culminated in most areas at, or just after, the glacial maximum, although the present day is also characterized by a below-average abundance of surface water. In extratropical regions the mapped patterns are more complex. They vary markedly with latitude and proximity to major ice sheets. In these areas, evidence is at present insufficient to evaluate the relative contributions of precipitation and temperature to the observed lake-level record.

Calculations based on temperature-corrected oxygen-isotope ratios from deep-sea cores yield a glacioeustatic sea-level fall in excess of 50 m during the first 10,000 yr of the last glaciation, and generally support the local regression of about 70 m inferred from tectonically rising New Guinea beaches. We propose that this rapid glacial buildup depended on high-latitude cooling, and large increases of high-latitude regional winter precipitation in the Laurentide and the Fennoscandian-Barents Sea areas, and that these factors were caused by a critical alteration of North Atlantic Drift currents and their associated subpolar atmospheric circulation. In support of this, faunal data from northeast North Atlantic deep-sea cores show that the glacial buildup was accompanied by a sudden loss of most of the North Atlantic Drift from the Greenland-Norwegian Sea, a factor favoring reduced heat input into the higher latitudes. Subpolar mollusk and foraminifera fauna from elevated marine deposits on the Baffin Island coast, and northwest North Atlantic core data suggest a continuation or an associated restoration of subpolar water west of Greenland as far north as Baffin Bay, a factor favoring precipitation in the northeast Canadian region. Heat transport and atmospheric circulation considerations suggest that the loss of the northeast North Atlantic Drift was itself a major instrument of high-latitude climate change, and probably marked the initiation of major new ice-sheet growth.

During the last 7 × 105 years the occurrence of abrupt climatic variations, of an intensity probably reaching 5°C/50 yr and with a duration of the order of several centuries can be demonstrated; their frequency is of the order 10−4 (sometimes even 10−3) per year. Most impressive examples are sudden coolings in earlier interglacials; in some periods the variability of past climates was obviously much greater than now. Due to the effective spatial coherence of the atmospheric and oceanic circulation their extension, not necessarily of similar intensity, is probably hemispheric or even global. They are modified by feedback mechanisms within the geophysical climatic system; orbital changes play a selective role leading either to suppression or to growth. Any physical interpretation of such abrupt paleoclimatic events remain as yet speculative. One of the most attractive models is the occurrence of clusters of major volcanic eruptions which is more frequent than expected in random series. This is similar to the clustering of severe earthquakes in recent years; both events are probably interrelated responses to the (apparently discontinuous) motions of tectonic plates.