Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-sjtt6 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-07-02T21:58:44.107Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

A Preliminary Reconstruction of Rainfall in North-Central China since A.D. 1600 from Tree-Ring Density and Width

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 January 2017

Malcolm K. Hughes ,
Wu Xiangding ,
Shao Xuemei  and
Gregg M. Garfin
Malcolm K. Hughes
Affiliation:
Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721
Wu Xiangding
Affiliation:
Institute of Geography, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100101, People's Republic of China
Shao Xuemei
Affiliation:
Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721; and Institute of Geography, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100101, People's Republic of China
Gregg M. Garfin
Affiliation:
Laboratory of Tree Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

May-June (MJ) and April-July (AJ) precipitation at Huashan in north-central China has been reconstructed for the period A.D. 1600 to 1988 using tree-ring density and width from Pinus armandii. MJ precipitation (based on ring width and maximum latewood density) calibrated and cross-validated against local instrumental data more strongly than AJ precipitation (based only on ring width). A major drought was reconstructed for the mid- and late 1920s, confirmed by local documentary sources. This drought (culminating in 1929) was the most severe of the 389-yr period for MJ and second most severe for AJ, after an event ending in 1683. Neither reconstruction shows much spectral power at frequencies lower than 1 in 10 yr, but both show concentrations of power between 2.1 and 2.7 yr and 3.5 to 9 yr. There are significant correlations between the two reconstructions and a regional dryness/wetness index (DW) based on documentary sources, particularly at high frequencies. These correlations are focused in the 7.6- to 7.3-, 3.8- to 3.6-, and 2.5-yr periods. Using singular spectrum analysis, quasiperiodic behavior with a period close to 7.2 yr was identified in the MJ precipitation reconstruction and in the DW index based on documents.

Type
Research Article
Information
Quaternary Research , Volume 42 , Issue 1 , July 1994 , pp. 88 - 99
Copyright
University of Washington

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Cook, E. (1985). “A Time-Series Analysis Approach to “free-Ring Standardization.” Unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, University of Arizona.Google Scholar
Davis, J. C. (1986). “Statistics and Data Analysis in Geology, 2nd ed., pp 170–176. Wiley, New York.Google Scholar
Fritts, H. C. Biasing, T. J. Hayden, B. P., and Kutzbach, J. E. (1971). Multivariate techniques for specifying tree-growth and climate relationships and reconstructing anomalies in paleoclimate. Journal of Applied Meteorology 10, 845–864.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Garfin, G. M. (1992). “Interannual Variability of the Asian Monsoon during the Period of Instrumental Records.” Unpublished M.S. thesis, University of Massachusetts.Google Scholar
Hughes, M. K. (1992). Dendroclimatic evidence from the western Himalaya. In “Climate since A.D. 1500.” (Bradley, R. S. and Jones, P. D., Eds.), pp 415–431. Routledge, London and New York.Google Scholar
Kendall, M. G. (1970). “Rank Correlation Methods.” Griffin, London.Google Scholar
Kohler, M. A. (1949). On the use of double-mass analysis for testing the consistency of meteorological records and for making required adjustments. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 82, 96–97.Google Scholar
Lenz, O. Schar, E., and Schweingruber, F. (1976). Methodische Probleme bei der radiographisch-densitometrischen Bestimmung der Dichte und der Jahrringbreiten von Holz. Holzforschung 30, 114–123.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Li, Zhaoyuan, , and Quan, Xiaowei, . (1987). The climatic changes of drought-wet in ancient Chang-an region of China during the last 1604 years. In “The Climate of China and Global Climate” (Ye Duzheng, Fu Congbin, Chao Jiping, and Yoshino, M., Eds.), pp. 57–62. China Ocean Press, Beijing.Google Scholar
Mann, H. B. (1945). Non-parametric test of randomness against trend. Ekonometrika 13, 245–259.Google Scholar
Montgomery, D. C., and Peck, E. (1992). “An Introduction to Linear Regression Analysis.” Wiley, New York.Google Scholar
Penland, C. Ghil, M., and Weickmann, K. (1991). Adaptive filtering and maximum entropy spectra with application to changes in atmospheric angular momentum. Journal of Geophysical Research 96(D12), 22,659–22,671.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Potter, K. W. (1981). Illustration of a new test for detecting a shift in mean in precipitation series. Monthly Weather Review 109, 2040–2045.Google Scholar
Rasmusson, E. Wang, X., and Ropelewski, C. (1990). The biennial component of ENSO variability. Journal of Marine Systems 1, 71–96.Google Scholar
Riches, M. R. Zhao, J. Wang, W.-C., and Tao, S. (1992). The U.S. Department of Energy and the Peoples’ Republic of China’s Academy of Sciences research on the greenhouse effect: 1985-1991 research progress. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 73, 585–594.Google Scholar
Shaanxi Meteorological Station. (1979). “The Flistorical Documents on Natural Hazards in Shaanxi Province.” Unpublished report.Google Scholar
State Meteorological Administration. (1981). “Annals of 510 Years of Precipitation Records in China,” Meteorological Research Institute, Beijing.Google Scholar
T&o, S. Fu, C. Zeng, Z., and Zhang, Q. (1991). “Two Long-Term Instrumental Climatic Data Bases of the Peoples’ Republic of China. ORNL/CDIAC-47, NDP-039.” Carbon Dioxide Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN.Google Scholar
Thompson, L. G. Mosley-Thompson, E. Bolzan, J. Dai, N. Gundestrup, N. Yao, T. Wu, X. Klein, L., and Xie, Z. (1989). Holocene/ Late Pleistocene climatic ice core records from Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Science 246, 474–477.Google Scholar
Thompson, L. G. Mosley-Thompson, E. Bolzan, J. Dai, N. Gundestrup, N. Yao, T. Wu, X. Klein, L., and Xie, Z. (1990). Glacial stage ice core records from the subtropical Dunde ice cap, China. Annals of Glaciology 14, 288–297.Google Scholar
Vautard, R., and Ghil, M. (1989). Singular spectrum analysis in nonlinear dynamics with applications to paleoclimatic time series. Physicu D35, 395–424.Google Scholar
Vautard, R. Yiou, P., and Ghil, M. (1992). Singular-spectrum analysis: A toolkit for short, noisy chaotic signals. Physica D58, 95–126.Google Scholar
Velleman, P. (1980). Definition and comparison of robust nonlinear data smoothers. Journal of the American Statistical Association 75, 609–615.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wang, R. Wang, S., and Fraedrich, K. (1991). An approach to reconstruction of temperature on a seasonal basis using historical documents from China. International Journal of Climatology 11, 381–392.Google Scholar
Wang, P., and Zhang, D. (1988). An introduction to some historical weather records of China. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 69, 753–758.Google Scholar
Wang, W., and Li, K. (1990). Precipitation fluctuation over semiarid region in northern China and the relationship with El Nino/Southem Oscillation. Journal of Climate 3, 769–783.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wigley, T. M. L., and Jones, P. D. (1987). England and Wales precipitation: A discussion of recent changes in variability and an update to 1985. Journal of Climatology 7, 231–246.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wigley, T. Briffa, K., and Jones, P. (1984). On the average value of correlated time series, with applications in dendroclimatology and hydrometeorology. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 23, 201–213.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wilkinson, L. (1987). “SYSTAT: The System for Statistics.” SYSTAT, Inc., Evanston, IL.Google Scholar
World Meteorological Organization. (1966). “Technical Note No. 79: Climatic Change; Report of a Working Group of the Commission for Climatology prepared by J. M. Mitchell, Jr., chairman; B. Dzerd-zeevskii; H. Flohn; W. L. Hofmeyr; H. H. Lamb; K. N. Rao; C. C. Wallen.” Secretariat of the World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.Google Scholar
Wu, X. (1992). Dendroclimatic studies in China. In “Climate since A.D. 1500.” (Bradley, R. and Jones, P. Eds.), pp. 432–445. Routledge, London and New York.Google Scholar
Yellow River Management Committee. (1991) “Climatoiogical Analysis of Prolonged Periods of Dryness in the Yellow River Valley.” Unpublished report.Google Scholar
Zahner, R. (1968). Water deficits and growth of trees. In “Water deficits and plant growth, II” (Kozlowski, T. T., Ed.), pp 191–254. Academic Press, New York and London.Google Scholar
Zhang, D. (1988). The method for reconstruction of the dryness/ wetness series in China for the last 500 years and its reliability. In“The Reconstruction of Climate in China for Historical Times.” (Zhang, J., Ed.), pp. 18–31. Science Press, Beijing.Google Scholar
Zhang, J., and Crowley, T. J. (1989). Historical climate records in China and reconstruction of past climates. Journal of Climate 2, 833–849.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zhang, X. Song, J., and Zhao, Z. (1989). The Southern Oscillation reconstruction and drought/flood in China. Acta Meteorologica Sinica 3, 290–301.Google Scholar