Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-dlnhk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-25T05:14:44.342Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

The Natural Breakdown of the Present Interglacial and its Possible Intervention by Human Activities

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 January 2017

J.Murray Mitchell Jr.*
Affiliation:
Environmental Data Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland 20910 USA.

Abstract

On the premise that climate responds in a stable and well-behaved manner to changes of terrestrial or extraterrestrial conditions of environment, the question of anticipating when the present interglacial will break down is explored from two different viewpoints. The concept, that the timing of the breakdown can be inferred through a comparison of the duration of the present interglacial (to date) with the duration of previous interglacials of similar warmth in the upper Quaternary, is examined from the viewpoint of the chronology of changes of solar radiation received at the top of the atmosphere, generally recognized as a likely causative agent in the development of interglacials. It is found that the radiation changes around the time of the present interglacial are somewhat different in character from those that accompanied the last interglacial, but that the radiation changes around the time of the last interglacial were more nearly similar to those which may have accompanied earlier interglacials. From this viewpoint, comparisons drawn between the present and previous interglacials are judged to be of uncertain value as a predictive tool for the future. The principal effects of man's activities on present-day climate are then reviewed. and the thermal effects of anticipated future increases of atmospheric carbon dioxide and particle loading are compared. It is concluded that the net impact of human activities on the climate of future decades and centuries is quite likely to be one of warming, and therefore favorable to the perpetuation of the present interglacial.

Type
Original Articles
Copyright
Academic Press, Inc.

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Lamb, H.H. 1969 Climatic fluctuations Flohn, H. World Survey of Climatology Vol. 2 Elsevier Amsterdam 173 249 Google Scholar
Lamb, H.H. 1970 Volcanic dust in the atmosphere, with a chronology and assessment of its meteorological significance Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A 266 425 533 Google Scholar
Machta, L. 1971 The role of the oceans and biosphere in the carbon dioxide cycle Nobel Symposium 20 (in press)Google Scholar
Manabe, S. Wetherald, R.T. 1967 Thermal equilibrium of the atmosphere with a given distribution of relative humidity Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 24 241 259 2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Manabe, S. Wetherald, R.T. 1971 Thermal equilibrium of the atmosphere with a given distribution of relative humidity Matthews, W.H. Kellogg, W.W. Robinson, G.D. Man's Impact on the Climate M.I.T. Press Cambridge, U.S.A Google Scholar
Mitchell, J.M. Jr. 1961 Recent secular changes of global temperature Annals New York Academyof Sciences 95 235 250 Article 1Google Scholar
Mitchell, J.M. Jr. 1963 On the world-wide pattern of secular temperature change Changes of Climate Arid Zone Research 20 UNESCO Paris 161 181 Google Scholar
Mitchell, J.M. Jr. 1970 A preliminary evaluation of atmospheric pollution as a cause of the global temperature fluctuation of the past century Singer, S.F. Global Effects of Environmental Pollution Springer Verlag New York 139 155 D. Reidel, DordrechtCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mitchell, J.M. Jr. 1971 The effect of atmospheric aerosols on climate with special reference to temperature near the earths surface Journal of Applied Meteorology 10 703 714 Google Scholar
Rasool, S.I. Schneider, S.H. 1971 Atmospheric carbon dioxide and aerosols: effects of large increases on global climate Science 173 138 141 CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Reitan, C.H. 1971 An Assessment of the Role of Volcanic Dust in Determining Modern Changes in the Temperature of the Northern Hemisphere Ph.D. Thesis University of Wisconsin Madison Google Scholar
Vernekar, A.D. 1972 Long-Period Global Variations of Incoming Solar Radiation Meteorological Monographs 34 American Meteorological Society Boston Google Scholar
Wilson, C.L. 1970 Man's Impact on the Global Environment M.I.T. Press Cambridge, U.S.A Google Scholar
Wilson, C.L. Inadvertent Climate Modification M.I.T. Press Cambridge, U.S.A Google Scholar