Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-fbnjt Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-06T06:05:34.416Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Testing the “tropical storm” hypothesis of Yucatan Peninsula climate variability during the Maya Terminal Classic Period

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 January 2017

Martín Medina-Elizalde*
Affiliation:
Department of Geosciences, Auburn University, AL 36849, USA
Josué Moises Polanco-Martínez
Affiliation:
Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3), Bilbao, BIZ, Spain Laboratoire Paléoclimatologie et Paléoenvironnements Marins, EPHE, PSL Research University, Pessac, France Univ. Bordeaux, EPOC, UMR 5805, Pessac, France
Fernanda Lases-Hernández
Affiliation:
Río Secreto Natural Reserve, Playa del Carmen, QROO, Mexico
Raymond Bradley
Affiliation:
Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, M.A., USA
Stephen Burns
Affiliation:
Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, M.A., USA
*
*Corresponding author. E-mail address:[email protected](M. Medina-Elizalde)

Abstract

We examine the “tropical storm” hypothesis that precipitation variability in the Yucatan Peninsula (YP) was linked to the frequency of tropical cyclones during the demise of the Classic Maya civilization, in the Terminal Classic Period (TCP, AD 750—950). Evidence that supports the hypothesis includes: (1) a positive relationship between tropical storm frequency and precipitation amount over the YP today (proof of feasibility), (2) a statistically significant correlation between a stalagmite (Chaac) quantitative precipitation record from the YP and the number of named tropical cyclones affecting this region today (1852—2004) (calibration sensu lato), and, (3) correlations between the stalagmite Chaac precipitation record and an Atlantic basin tropical cyclone count record and two proxy records of shifts in macroscale climate and ocean states that influence Atlantic tropical cyclongenesis. At face value, regional paleotempestology proxy records suggest that tropical storm activity in the YP was either similar or significantly lower than today during the TCP. The “tropical storm” hypothesis has implications for our understanding of the role the hydrological cycle played in the collapse of Classic Maya polities and the role of tropical storms in possibly ameliorating future drought in the YP and other tropical regions.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © American Quaternary Association 2016

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

1 Formerly Department of Geology, Amherst College, MA, USA

References

Bender, M.A., Knutson, T.R., Tuleya, R.E., Sirutis, J.J., Vecchi, G.A., Garner, S.T., Held, I.M., 2010. Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes. Science 327 (5964), 454458.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Brohan, P., Kennedy, J.J., Harris, I., Tett, S.F.B., Jones, P.D., 2006. Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new data set from 1850. Journal of Geophysical Research 111 (D12106).Google Scholar
Burn, M.J., Palmer, S.E., 2015. Atlantic hurricane activity during the last millenium. Scientific Reports 5.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carmean, K., Dunning, N., Kowalski, J.K., 2004. High times in the hill country: a perspective from the Terminal Classic Puuc Region. The Terminal Classic in the Maya Lowlands: Collapse, Transition, and Transformation. University Press of Colorado.Google Scholar
Christensen, J.H., Hewitson, B., Busuioc, A., Chen, A.,X.,G., Held, I., Jones, R., 2007. Regional Climate Projections. Climate Change 2007: the Physical Science Basis.Google Scholar
CONAGUA, 2011. Servicio meteorológico nacional, Mexico available at: http://smn.cna.gob.mx/.Google Scholar
Cook, B.I., Anchukaitis, K.J., Kaplan, J.O., Puma, M.J., Kelley, M., Gueyffier, D., 2012. Pre-Columbian deforestation as an amplifier of drought in Mesoamerica. Geophysical Research Letters L16706 no. 39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Curtis, J.H., Brenner, M., Hodell, D.A., Balser, R.A., Islebe, G.A., Hooghiemstra, H., 1998. A multi-proxy study of Holocene environmental change in the Maya lowlands of Peten, Guatemala. Journal of Paleolimnology 19 (2), 139159.Google Scholar
Curtis, J.H., Hodell, D.A., Brenner, M., 1996. Climate variability on the Yucatan Peninsula (Mexico) during the past 3500 years, and implications for Maya cultural evolution. Quaternary Research 46 (1), 3747.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Demarest, A.A., Rice, P.M., Rice, D.S., 2004. The Terminal Classic in the Maya lowlands: Collapse, Termination, and Transformation. University Press of Colorado, Boulder, CO, 676 p.Google Scholar
Denommee, K.C., Bentley, S.J., Droxler, A.W., 2014. Climatic controls on hurricane patterns: a 1200-y near-annual record from Lighthouse Reef, Belize. Scientific Reports 4.Google Scholar
Donnelly, J.P., Hawkes, A.D., Lane, P., MacDonald, D., Shuman, B.N., Toomey, M.R., Van Hengstum, P.J., Woodruff, J.D., 2015. Climate forcing of unprecedented intense-hurricane activity in the last 2000 years. Earth’s Future 3, 4965.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dunning, N., Houston, S., 2011. Chan Ik: Hurricanes as a Disruptive Force in the Maya Lowlands., Markt Schwaben, Germany, Verlag Anton Saurwein, Ecology, Power, and Religion in Maya Landscapes.Google Scholar
Dunning, N., Wahl, D., Beach, T., Jones, J., Luzzadder-Beach, S., McCane, C., 2014. The End of the Beginning: Drought, Environmental Change, and the Preclassic to Classic Transition in the East-Central Lowlands. University Press of Colorado, The Great Maya Droughts in Cultural Context, Boulder, Colorado, 466 p.Google Scholar
Dunning, N.P., Beach, T.P., Luzzadder-Beach, S., 2012. Kax and kol: collapse and resilience in lowland Maya civilization. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109 (10), 36523657.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Emanuel, K., 2005. Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature 436 (7051), 686688.Google Scholar
Frappier, A., Knutson, T., Liu, K.B., Emanuel, K., 2007. Perspective: coordinating paleoclimate research on tropical cyclones with hurricane-climate theory and modelling. Tellus Series a-Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 59 (4), 529537.Google Scholar
Frappier, A., Pyburn, J., Pinkey-Drobnis, A.D., Wang, X., Corbett, D.R., Dahlin, B.H., 2014. Two millennia of tropical cyclone-induced mud layers in a northern Yucatan stalagmite: multiple overlapping climatic hazards during the Maya Terminal Classic “megadroughts”. Geophysical Research Letters 43, 51485157. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059882.Google Scholar
Gill, R.B., 2000. The Great Maya Droughts: Water, Life, and Death Albuquerque. University of New Mexico Press, 445 p.Google Scholar
Gischler, E., Anselmetti, F.S., Shinn, E.A., 2013. Seismic stratigraphy of the Blue Hole (Lighthouse Reef, Belize), a late Holocene climate and storm archive. Marine Geology 344, 155162.Google Scholar
Goldenberg, S.B., Shapiro, L.J., 1996. Physical mechanisms for the Association of El Nino and West African rainfall with Atlantic major hurricane activity. Journal of Climate 9, 11691187.Google Scholar
Gunn, J., Adams, R.E.W., 1981. Climate change, culture, and civilization in North America. World Archaeology 13 (1), 87100.Google Scholar
Gunn, J.D., Foss, J.E., Folan, W.J., Domínguez-Carrasco, M.R., Faust, B., 2002. Bajo sediments and the hydraulic system of Calakmul, Campeche, Mexico. Ancient Mesoamerica 13 (2002), 297315.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hastenrath, S., 1984. Interannual variability and annual cycle: mechanisms of circulation and climate in the tropical Atlantic sector. Monthly Weather Review 112 (6), 10971107.Google Scholar
Haug, G.H., Gunther, D., Peterson, L.C., Sigman, D.M., Hughen, K.A., Aeschlimann, B., 2003. Climate and the collapse of Maya civilization. Science 299 (5613), 17311735.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hodell, D.A., Anselmetti, F.S., Ariztegui, D., Brenner, M., Curtis, J.H., Gilli, A., Grzesik, D.A., Guilderson, T.J., Muller, A.D., Bush, M.B., Correa-Metrio, A., Escobar, J., Kutterolf, S., 2008. An 85-ka record of climate change in lowland Central America. Quaternary Science Reviews 27 (11-12), 11521165.Google Scholar
Hodell, D.A., Brenner, M., Curtis, J.H., 2005. Terminal Classic drought in the northern Maya lowlands inferred from multiple sediment cores in Lake Chichancanab (Mexico). Quaternary Science Reviews 24 (12-13), 14131427.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hodell, D.A., Curtis, J.H., Brenner, M., 1995. Possible role of climate in the collapse of Classic Maya civilization. Nature 375 (6530), 391394.Google Scholar
Hoyos, C.D., Agudelo, P.A., Webster, P.J., Curry, J.A., 2006. Deconvolution of the factors contributing to the increase in global hurricane intensity. Science 312, 9497.Google Scholar
IPCC, 2007. Climate Change 2007: the Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.Google Scholar
Jauregui, E., 1995. Rainfall fluctuations and tropical storm activity in México. Erdkunde 49, 3848.Google Scholar
Karmalkar, A.V., Bradley, R.S., Diaz, H.F., 2011. Climate change in Central America and México: regional climate model validation and climate change projections. Climate Dynamics 37, 605629.Google Scholar
Kennett, D.J., Breitenbach, S.F.M., Aquino, V.V., Asmerom, Y., Awe, J., Baldini, J.U.L., Bartlein, P., Culleton, B.J., Ebert, C., Jazwa, C., Macri, M.J., Marwan, N., Polyak, V., Prufer, K.M., Ridley, H.E., Sodemann, H., Winterhalder, B., Haug, G.H., 2012. Development and disintegration of Maya political systems in response to climate change. Science 338 (6108), 788791.Google Scholar
Lachniet, M.S., Bernal, J.P., Asmerom, Y., Polyak, V., Piperno, D., 2012. A 2400-yr rainfall history links climate and cultural change in Mexico. Geology 40, 259262.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lawrence, J.R., Gedzelman, S.D., 1996. Low stable isotope ratios of tropical cyclone rains. Geophysical Research Letters 23, 527530.Google Scholar
Mann, M.E., Woodruff, D.J., Donnelly, P.J., Zhang, Z., 2009a. Atlantic hurricanes and climate over the last 1,500 years. Nature 460, 880885.Google Scholar
Mann, M.E., Zhang, Z., Rutherford, S., Bradley, R.S., Hughes, M.K., Shindell, D., Ammann, C., Fluvegi, G., Ni, F., 2009b. Global signatures and dynamical origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval climate anomaly. Science 326, 12561260.Google Scholar
Maraun, D., Kurths, J., 2004. Cross wavelet analysis: significance testing and pitfalls. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 11, 505.Google Scholar
McCloskey, T.A., Liu, K.B.A., 2013. A 7000 year record of paleohurricane activity from coastal wetland in Belize. Holocene 23, 278291.Google Scholar
Medina-Elizalde, M., Burns, S.J., Lea, D.W., Asmerom, Y., von Gunten, L., Polyak, V., Vuille, M., Karmalkar, A., 2010. High resolution stalagmite climate record from the Yucatan Peninsula spanning the Maya terminal classic period. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 298 (1-2), 255262.Google Scholar
Medina-Elizalde, M., Burns, S.J., Polanco-Martínez, J.M., Beach, T., Lases-Hernandez, F., Shen, C-C., Wang, H.-C., 2016. High-resolution speleothem record of precipitation from the Yucatan Peninsula spanning the Maya Preclassic period. Global and Planetary Change 138, 93102.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Medina-Elizalde, M., Rohling, E.J., 2012. Collapse of Classic Maya civilization related to modest reduction in precipitation. Science 335, 956959.Google Scholar
Mendoza, B., Velasco, V., Jauregui, E., 2006. A Study of historical droughts in southeastern Mexico. Journal of Climate 19, 29162934.Google Scholar
Mestas-Nunez, A.M., Enfield, D.B., Zhang, C., 2007. Water vapor fluxes over the Intra-Americas Sea: seasonal and interannual variability and associations with rainfall. Journal of Climate 20 (9), 19101922.Google Scholar
Paillard, D.L., Labeyrie, L., Yiou, P., 1996. Macintosh program performs time-series analysis. EOS, Transactions American Geophysical Union 77, 379.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Price, R.M., Swart, P.K., Willoughby, H.E., 2008. Seasonal and spatial variation in the stable isotopic composition (d18O and dD) of precipitation in south Florida. Journal of Hydrology 358, 193205.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rosenmeier, M.F., Hodell, D.A., Brenner, M., Curtis, J.H., Guilderson, T.P., 2002. A 4000-year lacustrine record of environmental change in the southern Maya lowlands, Peten, Guatemala. Quaternary Research 57 (2), 183190.Google Scholar
Santley, R.S., Killion, T.W., Lycett, M.T., 1986. On the Maya collapse. Journal of Anthropological Research 42, 123158.Google Scholar
Scarborough, V.L., 1996. Reservoirs and Watersheds in the Central Maya Lowlands. University of Utah Press Managed Mosaic, Salt Lake City.Google Scholar
Sheets, R.C., 1990. The National Hurricane Center — past, present, and future. Weather Forecasting 5, 185232.Google Scholar
Silverstein, J.E., Webster, D., Martinez, H., Sotoc, A., 2009. Rethinking the great earth work of Tikal: a hydraulic hypothesis for the Classic Maya Polity. Ancient Mesoamerica 20, 4558.Google Scholar
Stahle, D.W., Burnette, D.J., Diaz, J.V., Heim, R.R., Fye, F.K., Paredes, J.C., Soto, R.A., Cleaveland, M.K., 2012. Pacific and Atlantic influences on Mesoamerican climate over the past millennium. Climate Dynamics 39 (6), 14311446.Google Scholar
Trenberth, K.E., Fasullo, J., 2008. Energy budgets of Atlantic hurricanes and changes from 1970. Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems 9.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Turner, B.L., Sabloff, J.A., 2012. Classic period collapse of the Central Maya Lowlands: insights about human-environment relationships for sustainability. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109 (35), 1390813914.Google Scholar
Vásquez-Bedoya, L.F., Cohen, A.L., Oppo, D.W., Blanchon, P., 2012. Corals record persistent multidecadal SST variability in the Atlantic Warm Pool since 1775 AD. Paleoceanography 27, PA3231.Google Scholar
Vuille, M., Bradley, R.S., Healy, R., Werner, M., Hardy, D.R., Thompson, L.G., Keimig, F., 2003. Modeling delta O-18 in precipitation over the tropical Americas: 2. Simulation of the stable isotope signal in Andean ice cores. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 108 (D6).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Waliser, D.E., Gautier, C., 1993. A satellite-derived climatology of the ITCZ. Journal of Climate 6 (11), 21622174.Google Scholar
Wang, C., Lee, S.-K., Enfield, D.B., 2008. Atlantic warm pool acting as a link between Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems 9, Q05V03.Google Scholar
Webster, D.L., 2002. The Fall of the Ancient Maya: Solving the Mystery of the Maya Collapse. Thames & Hudson, London; New York.Google Scholar
Webster, J.W., Brook, G.A., Railsback, L.B., Cheng, H., Edwards, R.L., Alexander, C., Reeder, P.P., 2007. Stalagmite evidence from Belize indicating significant droughts at the time of Preclassic Abandonment, the Maya Hiatus, and the classic Maya collapse. Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology 250 (1-4), 117.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Medina-Elizalde et al. Supplementary Material

Table S1

Download Medina-Elizalde et al. Supplementary Material(File)
File 54.8 KB
Supplementary material: File

Medina-Elizalde et al. Supplementary Material

Table S2

Download Medina-Elizalde et al. Supplementary Material(File)
File 48.7 KB
Supplementary material: PDF

Medina-Elizalde et al. Supplementary Material

Supplementary Material

Download Medina-Elizalde et al. Supplementary Material(PDF)
PDF 621.6 KB