Background. Adverse life events prior to episodes of depression are assumed to play a causal role. Earlier studies have, however, not adequately controlled for the potential confounding effects of previous depression.

Method. A two-phase study was nested within a six-wave population based cohort study of 1947 adolescents. Interviews at two assessment phases with the CIS-R and CIDI were used to generate ICD-10 diagnoses of depressive disorder. Life events with longer-term contextual threat were reported for the 6 months before first diagnosis and categorized on the basis of participant appraisal as negative and neutral/positive in effects. Previous depressive and anxiety symptoms were measured 6 months earlier.

Results. Pre-existing depressive and anxiety symptoms predicted later events, increasing three-fold the risks for both neutral/positive and negative events in females and increased seven-fold the risk of negative events in males. Life events in turn predicted the onset of depressive disorder independently of previous symptoms. Single negative events held an over five-fold elevated risk and multiple events an almost eight-fold higher risk. Personal threat and loss were associated with disorder in females but not males.

Conclusions. The findings are consistent with a causal role for life events in early episodes of depression. The association also reflects a reciprocal relationship in which earlier symptoms predict later events, perhaps as a result of an individual's attempts to change unfavourable social circumstances.