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Prediction, Accommodation, and the Logic of Discovery

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  31 January 2023

Patrick Maher
Patrick Maher*
Affiliation:
University of Michigan
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Extract

It is widely believed that if a piece of evidence for a theory was known at the time the theory was proposed, then it does not confirm the theory as strongly as it would if the evidence had been discovered after the theory was proposed. I shall call this view the predictivist thesis. Those who have endorsed it include Leibniz (1678), Huygens (1690, preface), Whewell (1847 vol. 2, p. 64f.), Peirce (1883), Duhem (1914, ch. II, §5), Popper (1965, p. 241f.), Lakatos (1970, p. 123), and Kuhn (1977, p. 322). On the other hand, the thesis has been rejected by a number of philosophers, including Mill (1872 bk. III, ch. 14, §6), Keynes (1921, p. 305), Rosenkrantz (1977, p. 169f.), Horwich (1982, pp. 108-117) and Schlesinger (1987). Others, while not rejecting the predictivist thesis, nevertheless regard the justification of the thesis as problematic; these include Hempel (1966, p. 38) and Gardner (1982).

Type
Part IX. Interpreting Scientific Inference
Information
PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association , Volume 1988 , Issue 1: Volume One: Contributed Papers 1988 , 1988 , pp. 272 - 285
Copyright
Copyright © Philosophy of Science Association 1988

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Footnotes

1

This paper was written during my tenure as a fellow with the Michigan Society of Fellows. It is based on research supported by the National Science Foundation under grant SES-8708168.

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