As the 2008 presidential nominating process got underway, Iowa's
coveted status as first-in-the-nation appeared increasingly in
jeopardy, as states engaged in aggressive frontloading throughout
2006 and 2007. In the past, late March primaries in large states
like Florida, New York, and California were irrelevant to the
electoral outcome. To avoid a repeat in 2008, Florida moved its
primary to January 29 and California moved to what is now being
called “super duper Tuesday” on February 5 when nearly two dozen
states will hold primaries. Under pressure from extra-early voting
in Florida and other front-loading states, as we write this the Iowa
caucuses are to be held on January 3, two days after New Year's. It
seems possible that as a result of the nominating season becoming
more condensed, there may be an increase in the importance of Iowa
and New Hampshire, the opposite of what the states moving earlier
wanted. If the first nominating events are now the starter's gun in
a 50-meter dash rather than a mile run, who gets off the starting
blocks first may well matter even more. As Hull (2007, 66) argues, Iowa's impact on New Hampshire and the
national nomination process is a “wild, wired one.” In this rapid
sea of a changing nomination process we take a close look at the
Iowa electorate, both statewide registered voters and a subset of
likely caucus attendees, to shed light on the underpinnings of
support for the presidential candidates in the early stages of the
2008 campaign, using unique rolling cross-sectional data to track
opinion change over time.The
University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll is co-directed by David Redlawsk
and Caroline Tolbert. It was administered with the support of
the University of Iowa Social Science Research Center, Director
Kevin Leicht, and funded by the University of Iowa Office of the
Provost and the College of Liberal Arts and Science. We thank
all these people along with the team of graduate and
undergraduate students who worked with us on the survey
project.