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WHY THE STATE-BY-STATE POLITICAL ECONOMY MODEL DID IT RIGHT

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 January 2013

Bruno Jerôme  and
Véronique Jerôme-Speziari
Bruno Jerôme
Affiliation:
University of Paris 2
Véronique Jerôme-Speziari
Affiliation:
University of Paris Sud 11
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Extract

One hundred and forty two days before the 2012 US presidential election our final State-by-State Political-Economy Model gave an advantage to Barack Obama with 51.6% of the popular vote (error margin ± 4.47) and 324 electoral votes (Jerôme and Jerôme-Speziari 2012). On November 6, 2012, with 51.6% of the vote and 332 electoral votes, the Democratic incumbent wins a second term. Regarding certainty of an Obama plurality, the model gave a probability of victory by 64%. In 2012, it seems that this was enough to ensure a good predictability.

Type
Features Symposium: Recap: Forecasting the 2012 Election
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 46 , Issue 1 , January 2013 , pp. 45 - 46
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2013

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References

Jerôme, Bruno, and Jerôme-Speziari, Véronique. 2012. “Forecasting the 2012 US Presidential Election: Lessons from a State-by-State Political Economy Model.” PS: Political Science and Politics 45 (4): 663–68.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S. 2005. “Election Forecasting, Principles and Practice.” British Journal of Political International Research 7: 145–64.Google Scholar