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The Time-for-Change Model and the 2004 Presidential Election: A Post-Mortem and a Look Ahead

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 April 2005

Alan I. Abramowitz
Alan I. Abramowitz
Affiliation:
Emory University
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Extract

Based on George Bush's net approval rating of −1% in the final Gallup Poll in June, a 3.7% growth rate for real GDP during the first two quarters of 2004, and the fact that the Republican Party had controlled the White House for only one term, the time-for-change model predicted that Mr. Bush would win reelection with 53.7% of the major party vote. This forecast was made in late July, before the Republican National Convention and more than three months before Election Day.

Type
Symposium
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 38 , Issue 1 , January 2005 , pp. 31
Copyright
© 2005 by the American Political Science Association

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