The October 2008 issue of PS published a symposiumof presidential and congressional forecasts made in the summerleading up to the election. This article is an assessment of theaccuracy of their models.

At its most basic level, the Economic Expectations andTime-for-a-Change Model performed well in that it successfullyforecast a Barack Obama victory. It was in estimating the two-partyvote that the model underperformed. The point estimate was off byjust under five percentage points. While not terrible, the model didnot perform as well as it did in earlier years.