Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-2brh9 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-22T23:56:08.876Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Presidential Primary Turnout 1972–2016

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  12 October 2016

Lonna Rae Atkeson  and
Cherie D. Maestas
Lonna Rae Atkeson
Affiliation:
University of New Mexico
Cherie D. Maestas
Affiliation:
University of North Carolina, Charlotte
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

We explore the implications of sequential presidential primary elections for turnout in selecting the presidential party nominees. Drawing from a micro-level theory of participation in sequential elections, we develop a set of aggregate-level hypotheses that tease out different ways that candidate mobilization efforts as well as the legal and institutional structures within a sequential contest influence turnout in presidential nomination contests. Using data from all state primary elections from 1972–2016, we find that electorates facing winnowed candidate pools, and those with contests after the effective endings to presidential contests have substantially reduced turnout that effectively disenfranchises voters in many states. Sequenced primary elections lead to lower overall turnout and less meaningful participation for many voters during presidential nominations contests.

Type
Articles
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 49 , Special Issue 4: Elections in Focus , October 2016 , pp. 755 - 760
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2016 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Aldrich, John H. 1980. Before the Convention: Strategies and Choices in Presidential Nomination Campaigns. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Atkeson, Lonna Rae. 1993. “Moving Toward Unity: Attitudes in the Nomination and General Election Stages of the Presidential Campaign.” American Politics Quarterly 21 (3): 272–89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Atkeson, Lonna Rae and Maestas, Cherie D.. 2009. “Meaningful Participation and the Evolution of the Reformed Presidential Nominating System.” PS: Political Science & Politics 42 (1): 59–64.Google Scholar
Atkeson, Lonna Rae. 1998. “Divisive Primaries and General Election Outcomes: Another Look at Presidential Campaigns.” American Journal of Political Science 42 (1): 256–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Battaglini, Marco. 2005. “Sequential Voting with Abstention.” Games and Economic Behavior 51 (2): 445–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bartels, Larry M. 1988. Presidential Primaries and the Dynamics of Public Choice. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bump, Philip. 2016. “Why the Associated Press Called the Race for Hillary Clinton when Nobody was Looking,” Washington Post June 7, available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/06/07/why-the-associated-press-called-the-race-for-hillary-clinton-when-nobody-was-looking/, accessed June 29, 2016.Google Scholar
Geer, John. 1989. Nominating Presidents. New York: Greenwood.Google Scholar
Gurian, Paul-Henri. 1990. “The Influence of Nomination Rules on the Financial Allocations of Presidential Candidates.” Western Political Quarterly 43 (3): 661–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holbrook, Thomas M. and La Raja, Raymond J.. 2008. “Parties and Elections.” In Politics in the American States: A Comparative Analysis, 9th edition, ed., Gray, Virginia and Hanson, Russell L.. Washington, DC: CQ Press, 61–97.Google Scholar
Jackson, John S. and Crotty, William. 1996. The Politics of Presidential Selection. New York: Harper Collins.Google Scholar
Kenney, Patrick J. and Rice, Tom W.. 1985. “Voter Turnout in Presidential Primaries: A Cross-Sectional Examination.” Political Behavior 7 (1): 101–12.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kenney, Patrick J. and Rice, Tom W.. 1994. “The Psychology of Political Momentum.” Political Research Quarterly 47 (4): 923–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lucey, Catherine and Swanson, Emily. 2016. “AP-NORC poll: Americans want nomination system changed,” available at: http://bigstory.ap.org/article/f5821f2774c14c39ad00c1777f9ec6ea/ap-norc-poll-americans-support-changing-primary-process.Google Scholar
Commission on Party Structure and Delegate Selection. George S. McGovern, Chair. Mandate for Reform. Washington D.C.: Democratic National Committee, 1970.Google Scholar
Moran, Jack and Fenster, Mark. 1982. “Voter Turnout in Presidential Primaries: A Diachronic Analysis.” American Politics Quarterly 10 (4): 453–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mutz, Diana C. 1995. “Effects of Horse-Race Coverage on Campaign Coffers: Strategic Contributing in Presidential Primaries.” Journal of Politics 57 (4): 1015–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mutz, Diana C. 1997. “Mechanisms of Momentum: Does Thinking Make It So?” Journal of Politics 59 (1): 104–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norrander, Barbara and Smith, Gregg W.. 1985. “Type of Contest, Candidate Strategy and Turnout in Presidential Primaries.” American Politics Quarterly 13 (1): 28–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norrander, Barbara. 2000. “The End Game in Post-Reform Presidential Nominations.” Journal of Politics 62 (4): 999–1013 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norrander, Barbara. 1986a. “Correlates of Vote Choice in the 1980 Presidential Primaries.” Journal of Politics 48 (1): 156–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norrander, Barbara. 1986b. “Measuring Primary Turnout in Aggregate Analysis.” Political Behavior 8 (4): 356–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norrander, Barbara 1986c. “Selective Participation: Presidential Primary Voters as a subset of General Election Voters.” American Politics Quarterly 14 (1–2): 35–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norrander, Barbara. 1992. Super Tuesday: Regional Politics and Presidential Priamries. Lexington: University of Kentucky Press.Google Scholar
Popkin, Samuel L. 1991. The Reasoning Voter: Communication and Persuasion in Presidential Campaigns. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ranney, Austin. 1977. Participation in American Presidential Nominations, 1976. Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute.Google Scholar
Steger, Wayne P., Hickman, John, and Yohn, Ken. 2002. “Candidate Competition and Attrition in Presidential Primaries, 1912-2000.” American Politics Research 30 (5):528–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stone, Walter J., Atkeson, Lonna Rae and Rapoport, Ronald. 1992. “Turning On or Turning Off: Mobilization and Demobilization Effects of Participation in Presidential Nomination Campaigns.” American Journal of Political Science 36 (3): 665–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wolfinger, R and Rosenstone, Steven. 1980. Who Votes? New Haven, Conn: Yale University Press.Google Scholar