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Post-Election Reflections on Our Pre-Election Predictions

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 April 2005

Christopher Wlezien  and
Robert S. Erikson
Christopher Wlezien
Affiliation:
Oxford University
Robert S. Erikson
Affiliation:
Columbia University
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Extract

Prior to the 2004 presidential election we provided forecasts of the final vote relying on two different models. The first model follows what we did in 1996 and 2000 and relies on two variables:

  1. the cumulated weighted growth in leading economic indicators (LEI) through the 13th quarter of the sitting president's term—March of the election year—which provides advance information about income growth leading up to Election Day while also summarizing prior income growth; and

  2. the current value of presidential approval, which absorbs some economic effects but also reflects non-economic aspects of incumbent performance.

Type
Symposium
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 38 , Issue 1 , January 2005 , pp. 25 - 26
Copyright
© 2005 by the American Political Science Association

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References

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