Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-2plfb Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-24T19:05:47.646Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Mundus Vult Decipi, Ergo Decipiatur: Visual Communication of Uncertainty in Election Polls

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 September 2021

Alexander Bauer
Affiliation:
Statistical Consulting Unit StaBLab, Department of Statistics, LMU Munich, Germany
André Klima
Affiliation:
Statistical Consulting Unit StaBLab, Department of Statistics, LMU Munich, Germany
Jana Gauß
Affiliation:
Statistical Consulting Unit StaBLab, Department of Statistics, LMU Munich, Germany
Hannah Kümpel
Affiliation:
Statistical Consulting Unit StaBLab, Department of Statistics, LMU Munich, Germany
Andreas Bender
Affiliation:
Statistical Consulting Unit StaBLab, Department of Statistics, LMU Munich, Germany
Helmut Küchenhoff
Affiliation:
Statistical Consulting Unit StaBLab, Department of Statistics, LMU Munich, Germany

Abstract

Image of the first page of this content. For PDF version, please use the ‘Save PDF’ preceeding this image.'
Type
Forecasting the 2021 German Elections
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Bauer, Alexander, Bender, Andreas, Klima, André, and Küchenhoff, Helmut. 2020. “KOALA: A New Paradigm for Election Coverage.” AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis 104 (1): 101–15.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bender, Andreas, and Bauer, Alexander. 2018. “Coalitions: Coalition Probabilities in Multi-Party Democracies.” Journal of Open Source Software 3 (23): 606.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Biemer, Paul P. 2010. “Total Survey Error: Design, Implementation, and Evaluation.” Public Opinion Quarterly 74 (5): 817–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
FAZ. 2018. “Neue INSA-Umfrage: Keine Mehrheit für große Koalition.” Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. cuturl.net/WcmsT2. (Accessed March 31, 2021.)Google Scholar
FiveThirtyEight. 2016. “Who Will Win the Presidency?” cuturl.net/l2IfqeG. (Accessed March 31, 2021.)Google Scholar
Gelman, Andrew, Hullman, Jessica, Wlezien, Christopher, and Morris, George E.. 2020. “Information, Incentives, and Goals in Election Forecasts.” Judgment and Decision Making 15 (5): 863.Google Scholar
Graefe, Andreas. 2021. “Poll Illiteracy: How the Public Misunderstands Polls.” Preprint available at Social Science Research Network. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3834394.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hendrich, Cornelia K. 2017. “Wieso ein Statistiker Merkels Wahlsieg mit 99,7 Prozent vorhersagt.” welt.de. cuturl.net/s0qmeU. (Accessed March 31, 2021.)Google Scholar
Moy, Patricia, and Rinke, Eike M.. 2012. “Attitudinal and Behavioral Consequences of Published Opinion Polls.” In Opinion Polls and the Media, ed. Holtz-Bacha, Christina and Strömbäck, Jesper, 225–45. London: Palgrave Macmillan.10.1057/9780230374959_11CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Siegel, Ethan. 2016. “The Science of Error: How Polling Botched the 2016 Election.” Forbes.com. cuturl.net/ABYNHk. (Accessed March 31, 2021.)Google Scholar
Silver, Nate. 2017. “The Comey Letter Probably Cost Clinton the Election.” FiveThirtyEight. cuturl.net/LXhoWJ. (Accessed March 31, 2021.)Google Scholar
wahlrecht.de. 2021. “Sonntagsfrage Bundestagswahl.” wahlrecht.de. cuturl.net/r4JmIQi. (Accessed March 31, 2021.)Google Scholar