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Leading Economic Indicators, the Polls, and the Presidential Vote

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 October 2008

Robert S. Erikson  and
Christopher Wlezien
Robert S. Erikson
Affiliation:
Columbia University
Christopher Wlezien
Affiliation:
Temple University
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Extract

On the eve of the election, the impending result of the presidential vote can be seen fairly clearly from trial-heat polls. Earlier in the election year, the polls offer much less information about what will happen on Election Day (see Campbell 2008; Wlezien and Erikson 2002). The polls capture preferences to the moment and do not—because they cannot—anticipate how preferences will evolve in the future, as the campaign unfolds. Various things ultimately impact the final vote. The standing of the sitting president is important. The economy is too. Both can change as the election cycle evolves. To make matters worse, late-arriving economic shocks have a bigger impact on the electoral verdict than those that arrive earlier. This complicates accurately forecasting the vote well in advance.

Type
Symposium
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 41 , Issue 4 , October 2008 , pp. 703 - 707
Copyright
Copyright © The American Political Science Association 2008

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