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Forecasting the 2008 Presidential Election: A Challenge for the Fiscal Model

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 October 2008

Alfred G. Cuzán  and
Charles M. Bundrick
Alfred G. Cuzán
Affiliation:
The University of West Florida
Charles M. Bundrick
Affiliation:
The University of West Florida
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Extract

In 2004, for the first time the fiscal model was employed for the purpose of real-time, ex ante forecasting of a presidential election. The results were encouraging (Cuzán and Bundrick 2005). This year, however, the model encounters a set of challenging conditions, relevant only to it, never seen in the data before. In this paper, we briefly summarize the model, describe the problem, wrestle with ways to address it, and conclude with a forecast for November.

Type
Symposium
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 41 , Issue 4 , October 2008 , pp. 717 - 722
Copyright
Copyright © The American Political Science Association 2008

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References

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