Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-2plfb Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-25T00:38:27.799Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Forecasting Canadian Federal Elections

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 October 2010

Éric Bélanger  and
Jean-François Godbout
Éric Bélanger
Affiliation:
McGill University
Jean-François Godbout
Affiliation:
University of Montreal
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

In recent decades, the scientific forecasting of election outcomes has made great strides in a number of advanced industrial democracies. One country that has not received much attention to date is Canada. In this article, we present a vote function model to forecast Canadian federal elections. We explain our model's theoretical underpinnings and assess its statistical properties and forecasting capabilities against all federal elections held between 1953 and 2008. We then explore potential ways for improving the model's accuracy. We conclude by discussing the forecast of different hypothetical scenarios for an upcoming federal election.

Type
Features
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 43 , Issue 4 , October 2010 , pp. 691 - 699
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2010

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abramowitz, Alan I. 2008. “Forecasting the 2008 Presidential Election with the Time-for-Change Model.” PS: Political Science and Politics 41: 691–95.Google Scholar
Bélanger, Éric, and Godbout, Jean-François. 2000. “Les résultats des prochaines élections fédérales sont-ils prévisibles?” Le Devoir, November 13, A7.Google Scholar
Bélanger, Éric, and Godbout, Jean-François. 2004. “Des libéraux usés, mais encore au pouvoir.” Le Devoir, June 15, A7.Google Scholar
Bélanger, Éric, and Godbout, Jean-François. 2006. “How Will We Vote?” Toronto Star, January 16, A13.Google Scholar
Bélanger, Éric, Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Nadeau, Richard. 2005. “A Political Economy Forecast for the 2005 British General Election.” British Journal of Politics and International Relations 7: 191–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, James E. 2008a. “Evaluating U.S. Presidential Election Forecasts and Forecasting Equations.” International Journal of Forecasting 24: 259–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, James E. 2008b. “The Trial-Heat Forecast of the 2008 Presidential Vote: Performance and Value Considerations in an Open-Seat Election.” PS: Political Science and Politics 41: 697–701.Google Scholar
Campbell, James E., and Garand, James C., eds. 2000. Before the Vote: Forecasting American National Elections. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.Google Scholar
Clarke, Harold D., and Stewart, Marianne C.. 1994. “Economic Evaluations and Election Outcomes: An Analysis of Alternative Forecasting Models.” In British Elections and Parties Yearbook 1994, ed. Broughton, David, Farrell, David M., Denver, David, and Rallings, Colin, 73–91. London: Frank Cass.Google Scholar
Erikson, Robert S., and Wlezien, Christopher. 2008. “Leading Economic Indicators, the Polls, and the Presidential Vote.” PS: Political Science and Politics 41: 703–07.Google Scholar
Gélineau, François, and Bélanger, Éric. 2005. “Electoral Accountability in a Federal System: National and Provincial Economic Voting in Canada.” Publius 35: 407–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gelman, Andrew, and King, Gary. 1993. “Why Are American Presidential Election Campaign Polls So Variable When Votes Are So Predictable?” British Journal of Political Science 23: 409–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Happy, J. R. 1992. “The Effect of Economic and Fiscal Performance on Incumbency Voting: The Canadian Case.” British Journal of Political Science 22: 117–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holbrook, Thomas M. 1996. Do Campaigns Matter? Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Imai, Kosuke, King, Gary, and Lau, Oliva. 2007. “Zelig: Everyone's Statistical Software.” http://gking.harvard.edu/zelig.Google Scholar
Jackman, Simon, and Marks, Gary N.. 1994. “Forecasting Australian Elections: 1993, and All That.” Australian Journal of Political Science 29: 277–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S. 2005. “Election Forecasting: Principles and Practice.” British Journal of Politics and International Relations 7: 145–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Rice, Tom W.. 1992. Forecasting Elections. Washington, DC: CQ Press.Google Scholar
Mughan, Anthony. 1987. “General Election Forecasting: A Comparison of Three Simple Models.” Electoral Studies 6: 195–207.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nadeau, Richard, and Blais, André. 1993. “Explaining Election Outcomes in Canada: Economy and Politics.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 26: 775–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nadeau, Richard, and Blais, André. 1995. “Economic Conditions, Leader Evaluations and Election Outcomes in Canada.” Canadian Public Policy 21: 212–18.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nadeau, Richard, Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Bélanger, Éric. 2009. “Election Forecasting in the United Kingdom: A Two-Step Model.” Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 19: 333–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nannestad, Peter, and Paldam, Martin. 1994. “The VP-function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after 25 Years.” Public Choice 79: 213–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norpoth, Helmuth. 2004. “Forecasting British Elections: A Dynamic Perspective.” Electoral Studies 23: 297–305.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Organization for Economic Co-operation, and Development. 2009. “Employment Outlook 2009 Country Notes: Canada.” OECD Report, September 16. http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/62/10/43707194.pdf.Google Scholar
Paldam, Martin. 1986. “The Distribution of Election Results and the Two Explanations of the Cost of Ruling.” European Journal of Political Economy 7: 1–26.Google Scholar
Persichilli, Angelo. 2009. “Ignatieff 's Committing Political Euthanasia.” Hill Times, October 5.Google Scholar
Pickup, Mark, and Johnston, Richard. 2007. “Campaign Trial Heats as Electoral Information: Evidence from the 2004 and 2006 Canadian Federal Elections.” Electoral Studies 26: 460–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Statistics Canada. N.d. “CANSIM Table 282-0001 (Labour Force Survey, Monthly).” http://www.statcan.ca.Google Scholar
Whiteley, Paul F. 1979. “Electoral Forecasting from Poll Data: The British Case.” British Journal of Political Science 9: 219–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Whiteley, Paul F. 2005. “Forecasting Seats from Votes in British General Elections.” British Journal of Politics and International Relations 7: 165–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wolfers, Justin, and Leigh, Andrew. 2002. “Three Tools for Forecasting Federal Elections: Lessons from 2001.” Australian Journal of Political Science 37: 223–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar