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Change We Can Believe In? Using Political Science to Predict Policy Change in the Obama Presidency

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 April 2009

Jonathan Woon
Jonathan Woon
Affiliation:
University of Pittsburgh
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Abstract

Based on the results of the 2008 presidential and congressional elections, an analysis using theories and methods of modern political science (pivotal politics theory, ideal point estimates, and bootstrap simulations) suggests that the conditions are ripe for real policy change. Specifically, we should expect policies to move significantly in a liberal direction, few or no policies should move in a conservative direction, and many of the outcomes will be moderate or somewhat to the left of center (rather than far left). Furthermore, the predictions depend as much on partisan polarization and the results of the congressional election as they do on the outcome of presidential election itself.

Type
Features
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 42 , Issue 2 , April 2009 , pp. 329 - 333
Copyright
Copyright © The American Political Science Association 2009

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