For all the signs of a dead heat in the horserace polls and strong hints of a victory for Senator John Kerry in exit polls on Election Day itself, the reelection of George W. Bush proved predictable from a model with a leading indicator available as far back as January. The forecast published in the October 2004 issue of PS was initially posted on January 29, 2004, the day after the New Hampshire Primary. It claimed, with 95% certainty, that President George W. Bush would defeat Democrat John Kerry in November. The forecast, which was not subject to any revision throughout the remainder of the election year, gave Bush 54.7% and Kerry 45.3% of the major-party vote. It missed the actual division of the major-party vote by a little more than one unit of the forecast error (2.7). All in all, a satisfactory performance of the model.