Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-rcrh6 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-22T16:34:55.417Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The American Voter and the Economy, 2008

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 June 2009

Robert S. Erikson
Robert S. Erikson
Affiliation:
Columbia University
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

Why did Obama defeat McCain in 2008? As with any national election outcome, the immediate culprit that comes to mind is economic performance. When the U.S. is prosperous, the electorate votes the incumbent presidential party back into office. When the U.S. economy sours, the incumbent (or incumbent party) loses. In 2008, the application of this rule led to a correct prediction once again. Economy up, Republicans out. It is difficult to challenge this conventional wisdom that the economy contributed to the transfer of the White House from the Republicans to Democrat Obama.

Type
Symposium
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 42 , Issue 3 , July 2009 , pp. 467 - 471
Copyright
Copyright © The American Political Science Association 2009

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Achen, Christopher, and Bartels, Larry. 2002. “Blind Retrospection: Electoral Responses to Draught, Flu, and Shark Attacks.” Paper delivered at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston.Google Scholar
Bartels, Larry. 2006. “Priming and Persuasion in Presidential Campaigns.” In Capturing Campaign Effects, ed. Johnston, Richard and Brady, Henry E.. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 78–112.Google Scholar
Bartels, Larry. 2008. Unequal Democracy. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Campbell, Angus. 1964. “Voters and Elections, Past and Present. Journal of Politics 26 (August): 745–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip E., Miller, Warren E., and Stokes, Donald E.. 1960. The American Voter. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Erikson, Robert S. 1989. “Economic Conditions and the Presidential Vote.” American Political Science Review 83: 568–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Erikson, Robert S., Mackuen, Michael B., and Stimson, James A.. 2002. The Macro Polity. New York: CambridgeGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael, Jacoby, William, Norpoth, Helmut, and Weisberg, Herbert. 2008. The American Voter Revisited. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Stegmaier, Mary. 2000. “Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes.” Annual Review of Political Science 3: 183–219.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lockerbie, Brad. 2008. Do Voters Look to the Future? Economics and Elections. Albany: SUNY.Google Scholar
Tufte, Edward R. 1978. The Political Control of the Economy. Princeton: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zaller, John. 2004. “Floating Voters in US Elections, 1948–2000.” In Studies in Public Opinion, ed. Saris, Willem E. and Sniderman, Paul M.. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 166–212.CrossRefGoogle Scholar