Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-s2hrs Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-05T15:59:43.908Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Post-Election Reflections on Our Pre-Election Predictions

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 April 2005

Christopher Wlezien  and
Robert S. Erikson
Christopher Wlezien
Affiliation:
Oxford University
Robert S. Erikson
Affiliation:
Columbia University
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

Prior to the 2004 presidential election we provided forecasts of the final vote relying on two different models. The first model follows what we did in 1996 and 2000 and relies on two variables:

  1. the cumulated weighted growth in leading economic indicators (LEI) through the 13th quarter of the sitting president's term—March of the election year—which provides advance information about income growth leading up to Election Day while also summarizing prior income growth; and

  2. the current value of presidential approval, which absorbs some economic effects but also reflects non-economic aspects of incumbent performance.

Type
Symposium
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 38 , Issue 1 , January 2005 , pp. 25 - 26
Copyright
© 2005 by the American Political Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Campbell James E. 2000 The American Campaign: U.S. Presidential Campaigns and the National Vote. College Station: Texas A&M University Press.Google Scholar
Erikson Robert S. Costas Panagopoulos, and Christopher Wlezien. 2004 “Likely (and Unlikely) Voters and the Assessment of Campaign Dynamics.” Public Opinion Quarterly 68: 588– 601.Google Scholar
Erikson Robert S., and Christopher Wlezien. 1999 “Presidential Poll as a Time Series: The Case of 1996.” Public Opinion Quarterly 63: 163– 177.Google Scholar
Jacoby William. 1997 Statistical Graphics for Univariate and Bivariate Data. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.Google Scholar
Johnston Richard, Michael G. Hagen, and Kathleen Hall Jamieson. 2004 The 2000 Presidential Election and the Foundations of Party Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wlezien Christopher, and Robert S. Erikson. 2004 “The Fundamentals, the Polls, and the Presidential Vote.” PS: Political Science and Politics 37 (October): 747– 751.Google Scholar
Wlezien Christopher, and Robert S. Erikson. 2002 “The Timeline of Presidential Election Campaigns.” Journal of Politics 64: 969– 993.Google Scholar
Wlezien Christopher, and Robert S. Erikson. 1996 “Temporal Horizons and Presidential Election Forecasts.” American Politics Quarterly 24: 492– 505.Google Scholar