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A Look to the Future: Forecasting the 2004 Presidential Election

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 October 2004

Brad Lockerbie
Brad Lockerbie
Affiliation:
University of Georgia
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Extract

Forecasting provides the opportunity to put one's self to the test. Are our models of voting behavior accurate? It is easy to retrofit an explanation for what has happened in the past. Taking a chance on a forecast that can go wrong does not afford us that luxury. Forecasting can also teach a lesson in humility. Over the last decade, political scientists have been willing to gamble on their models. We have had some success. Everyone on the forecasting panel at the 1996 APSA Annual Meeting correctly forecast a Clinton victory. The forecasting of the 2000 presidential election was clearly a lesson in humility (at least for this author). None of the authors of this symposium forecast a Bush victory. Moreover, many forecast a rather substantial victory for Al Gore.

Type
Symposium
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 37 , Issue 4 , October 2004 , pp. 741 - 743
Copyright
© 2004 by the American Political Science Association

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