I. The Worldwide Democratic Revolution and Its Causes

It being less than ten days after the collapse of the attempted coup by communist hardliners in the Soviet Union, the coup's outcome serves as a useful reminder of the vitality that the democratic dea has for people still living under authoritarianism. The anti-communist revolution in the USSR is of course not an isolated event. The single most remarkable macropolitical phenomenon of the past generation has been the global crisis of authoritarianism, and the spread of liberal democracy in its wake, as noted by Lucian Pye in his presidential addressto this convention two years ago. By my count, there were three democracies in 1790; 13 in 1900, 27 in 1919, and 62 today.This progress has not been linear or continuous, of course: there were 14 fewer democracies in 1940 than in 1919; democracies were overthrown throughout Latin America in the 60s and 70s. Many of the countries thathave become democracies in the past few years are very unstable or of uncertain commitment to liberal values, and it would not be surprising to see a number of them lapse back into some kind of authoritarian rule in the nearfuture, as Thailand has already done this past year. Nonetheless, th trend is there. The 62 countries I countas democracies have a combined population of 2.24 billion people, or approximately 44 percent of the world's population. Moreover, neither the Soviet Union nor China are counted among the 62, and if parts or all of either country democratizes successfully, half to two-thirds of the world's population could be said to enjoy democratic rights and liberties.