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FORECASTING THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WITH THE FISCAL MODEL: THE CHALLENGE MET
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 08 January 2009
Extract
The October 2008 issue of PS published a symposium of presidential and congressional forecasts made in the summer leading up to the election. This article is an assessment of the accuracy of their models.
The presidential election forecast made with the Fiscal Model three months before Election Day put the incumbents' share of the two-party vote (VOTE2) at 48% (Cuzán and Bundrick 2008). As of the time of this writing, it appears the incumbent-party ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin took a little less than that (around 46.5%). At 1.5%, the error is less than 2.3%, which is Campbell's (2008, 680) “benchmark” for a “quite accurate” forecast. This is the second time in a row that the Fiscal Model ranks among the best performers (Campbell 2005, 23).
- Type
- Forecasting Recap
- Information
- Copyright
- Copyright © American Political Science Association 2009
References
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