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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 08 January 2009
The October 2008 issue of PS published a symposiumof presidential and congressional forecasts made in the summerleading up to the election. This article is an assessment of theaccuracy of their models.
The presidential election forecast made with the Fiscal Model threemonths before Election Day put the incumbents' share of thetwo-party vote (VOTE2) at 48% (Cuzán and Bundrick 2008). As of the time ofthis writing, it appears the incumbent-party ticket of John McCainand Sarah Palin took a little less than that (around 46.5%). At1.5%, the error is less than 2.3%, which is Campbell's (2008, 680) “benchmark” for a“quite accurate” forecast. This is the second time in a row that theFiscal Model ranks among the best performers (Campbell 2005,23).