Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-g7gxr Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-05T15:55:51.016Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Evaluating the Trial-Heat and Economy Forecast of the 2004 Presidential Vote: All's Well that Ends Well

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 April 2005

James E. Campbell
James E. Campbell
Affiliation:
University at Buffalo, SUNY
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

On Labor Day, 57 days before the election, using the Gallup poll's division of likely voters and GDP growth during the second quarter of the year, the trial-heat and economy forecasting model predicted that George W. Bush would receive 53.8% of the two-party popular vote (Campbell 2004a). Out of concerns about relying too heavily on a single poll and the possible complications associated with the Republican Convention running right up to the Labor Day weekend, a companion model based on the pre-convention Gallup poll, the net convention poll bump, and the economy was constructed. It forecast a slightly closer election, with a Bush vote of 52.8%.

Type
Symposium
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 38 , Issue 1 , January 2005 , pp. 33 - 34
Copyright
© 2005 by the American Political Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Campbell James E. 2004a “Forecasting the Presidential Vote in 2004: Placing Preference Polls in Context.” PS: Political Science and Politics 37 (October): 763– 7.Google Scholar
Campbell James E. 2004b. “Introduction—The 2004 Presidential Election Forecasts.” PS: Political Science and Politics 37 (October): 733– 5.Google Scholar
Campbell James E. 2004c. “The Presidential Election of 2004: The Fundamentals and the Campaign.” The Forum 2 (4): Article 1. www.bepress.com/forum/vol2/iss4/art1.Google Scholar
Campbell James E. 2005. “The Fundamentals in U.S. Presidential Elections: Public Opinion, the Economy, and Incumbency in the 2004 Presidential Election.” Journal of Elections Public Opinion and Parties 1 (1).Google Scholar
Erikson Robert, Costas Panagopoulos, and Christopher Wlezien. 2004. “Likely (and Unlikely) Voters and the Assessment of Campaign Dynamics.” Public Opinion Quarterly 63: 163– 177.Google Scholar
Stimson James A. 2004. www.unc.edu/~jstimson/Google Scholar