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Evaluating the Trial-Heat and Economy Forecast of the 2004 Presidential Vote: All's Well that Ends Well

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 April 2005

James E. Campbell
James E. Campbell
Affiliation:
University at Buffalo, SUNY
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Extract

On Labor Day, 57 days before the election, using the Gallup poll's division of likely voters and GDP growth during the second quarter of the year, the trial-heat and economy forecasting model predicted that George W. Bush would receive 53.8% of the two-party popular vote (Campbell 2004a). Out of concerns about relying too heavily on a single poll and the possible complications associated with the Republican Convention running right up to the Labor Day weekend, a companion model based on the pre-convention Gallup poll, the net convention poll bump, and the economy was constructed. It forecast a slightly closer election, with a Bush vote of 52.8%.

Type
Symposium
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 38 , Issue 1 , January 2005 , pp. 33 - 34
Copyright
© 2005 by the American Political Science Association

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References

Campbell James E. 2004a “Forecasting the Presidential Vote in 2004: Placing Preference Polls in Context.” PS: Political Science and Politics 37 (October): 763– 7.Google Scholar
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