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After the Vote: Evaluating a Prospective Forecasting Model of Presidential Elections

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 April 2005

Brad Lockerbie
Brad Lockerbie
Affiliation:
University of Georgia
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Extract

There are two components to my model of presidential election forecasting: Given the enormous amount of work on voting behavior that finds prospective assessments of the economy to be strongly related to vote choice (e.g., Abramowitz 1985; Kuklinski and West 1981; Lewis-Beck 1988; Lockerbie 1992), I make use of a prospective economic item from the Survey of Consumer Attitudes and Behavior that asks if the next year will be better, worse, or the same for the respondent. I take the average of the negative responses to this question from the first quarter of the election year as my economic measure. These data are available in late April.

Type
Symposium
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 38 , Issue 1 , January 2005 , pp. 39 - 40
Copyright
© 2005 by the American Political Science Association

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References

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