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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 08 January 2009
The October 2008 issue of PS published a symposiumof presidential and congressional forecasts made in the summerleading up to the election. This article is an assessment of theaccuracy of their models.
On September 8, 2008, the Trial-heat Forecasting Model predicted thatin-party candidate Senator John McCain would receive 52.7% of thenational two-party popular presidential vote. The forecast of avictory of modest proportions for Senator McCain reflected hishaving a five-percentage-point lead over Senator Barack Obama inGallup's early September, post-convention poll (49% to 44%) and theBureau of Economic Analysis' August report of a 3.3% GDP growth ratein the second quarter of the year, about average for a secondquarter election year economy.
1 Gallup's poll of registered voters is used throughout and in the estimation of the models. However, to check on the robustness of the forecast, I also examined RealClearPolitics' poll averages. The two series were substantively similar. Using the RealClearPolitics' poll average in the forecast models produced a forecast of 51.7% for McCain in the main model and 51.3% in the Convention Bump Model.
2 This is based on incomplete and unofficial returns as of November 19, 2008.
