The prediction of binding energies from the three-dimensional (3D) structure of a protein–ligand complex is an important goal of biophysics and structural biology. Here, we critically assess the use of empirical, solvent-accessible surface area-based calculations for the prediction of the binding of Src-SH2 domain with a series of tyrosyl phosphopeptides based on the high-affinity ligand from the hamster middle T antigen (hmT), where the residue in the pY+3 position has been changed. Two other peptides based on the C-terminal regulatory site of the Src protein and the platelet-derived growth factor receptor (PDGFR) are also investigated. Here, we take into account the effects of proton linkage on binding, and test five different surface area-based models that include different treatments for the contributions to conformational change and protein solvation. These differences relate to the treatment of conformational flexibility in the peptide ligand and the inclusion of proximal ordered solvent molecules in the surface area calculations. This allowed the calculation of a range of thermodynamic state functions (ΔCp, ΔS, ΔH, and ΔG) directly from structure. Comparison with the experimentally derived data shows little agreement for the interaction of SrcSH2 domain and the range of tyrosyl phosphopeptides. Furthermore, the adoption of the different models to treat conformational change and solvation has a dramatic effect on the calculated thermodynamic functions, making the predicted binding energies highly model dependent. While empirical, solvent-accessible surface area based calculations are becoming widely adopted to interpret thermodynamic data, this study highlights potential problems with application and interpretation of this type of approach. There is undoubtedly some agreement between predicted and experimentally determined thermodynamic parameters; however, the tolerance of this approach is not sufficient to make it ubiquitously applicable.