Some 6 billion of the 14 billion barrels of proven reserves on the United Kingdom Continental Shelf have already been produced. The remaining 8 billion barrels are reasonably insensitive to oil prices even as low as $10 per barrel, as the operating costs of most existing fields are below $7 per barrel. Production from these proven reserves is already dropping from a peak of just under 3 million barrels per day towards 0·3 million barrels per day in the year 2000.

A description of the buried sequence in the northern North Sea and the frontier area towards Rockall and Faeroe leads to an assessment of probable oil reserves somewhat more conservative than the Department of Energy best guess of 44 billion barrels. Further developments will be sensitive to the course of oil prices, but at least another 8 billion barrels could be added to the proven reserves.

The world is consuming oil far faster than it is finding it, and the supply must be dominated again by the Middle East producers as production declines.