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Forecasting Solar Energetic Particle Fluence with Multi-Spacecraft Observations

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 July 2018

T. Laitinen Open the ORCID record for T. Laitinen [Opens in a new window] ,
S. Dalla Open the ORCID record for S. Dalla [Opens in a new window] ,
M. Battarbee  and
M. S. Marsh
T. Laitinen
Affiliation:
Jeremiah Horrocks Institute, University of Central Lancashire, Preston, United Kingdom email: [email protected]
S. Dalla
Affiliation:
Jeremiah Horrocks Institute, University of Central Lancashire, Preston, United Kingdom email: [email protected]
M. Battarbee
Affiliation:
Jeremiah Horrocks Institute, University of Central Lancashire, Preston, United Kingdom email: [email protected]
M. S. Marsh
Affiliation:
Met Office, Exeter, UK
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Abstract

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Forecasting Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) fluence, as integrated over an SEP event, is an important element when estimating the effect of solar eruptions on humans and technology in space. Current real-time estimates are based on SEP measurements at a single location in space. However, the interplanetary magnetic field corotates with the Sun approximately 13° each day with respect to Earth, thus in 4 days a near-Earth spacecraft will have changed their connection about 60° from the original SEP source. We estimate the effect of the corotation on particle fluence using a simple particle transport model, and show that ignoring corotation can cause up to an order of magnitude error in fluence estimations, depending on the interplanetary particle transport conditions. We compare the model predictions with STEREO observations of SEP events.

Keywords

Sun: Particle Emissioninterplanetary mediumdiffusion
Type
Contributed Papers
Information
Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union , Volume 13 , Symposium S335: Space Weather of the Heliosphere: Processes and Forecasts , July 2017 , pp. 298 - 300
Copyright
Copyright © International Astronomical Union 2018 

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