Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-8ctnn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-26T02:57:04.015Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Scenario building guidelines for sustainable innovation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 May 2024

François Haeberle
Affiliation:
Technical University of Denmark, DTU Construct, Denmark
Giácomo Parolin*
Affiliation:
Technical University of Denmark, DTU Construct, Denmark
Daniela C. A. Pigosso
Affiliation:
Technical University of Denmark, DTU Construct, Denmark

Abstract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

The integration of sustainability into highly uncertain technology development is key to support manufacturing companies to reduce their environmental impacts. The use of future scenarios to support decision-making in early design for sustainability is promising, but there is a lack of systematic guidelines on how to build them. Through literature review and empirical research scenario-building guidelines were designed. The guidelines are step-by-step activities to be performed in workshops. Results suggest the guidelines were successful in building consistent, plausible, and useful scenarios.

Type
Design for Sustainability
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BYCreative Common License - NCCreative Common License - ND
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is unaltered and is properly cited. The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained for commercial re-use or in order to create a derivative work.
Copyright
The Author(s), 2024.

References

Amer, M., Daim, T. U., & Jetter, A. (2013). A review of scenario planning. Futures, 46, 2340. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2012.10.003CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bishop, P., Hines, A., & Collins, T. (2007). The current state of scenario development: An overview of techniques. foresight, 9(1), 525. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680710727516CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blessing, L., & Chakrabarti, A. (2009). DRM, a design research methodology. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-84882-587-1CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bradfield, R., Wright, G., Burt, G., Cairns, G., & Van Der Heijden, K. (2005). The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning. Futures, 37(8), 795812. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.01.003CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chermack, T. J. (2004). Improving decision making with scenario planning. Futures, 36(3), 295309. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-3287(03)00156-3CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cooper, R. G. (2006). Managing Technology Development Projects. Research Technology Management, 49(6), 2331. https://doi.org/10.1080/08956308.2006.11657405CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duinker, P. N., & Greig, L. A. (2007). Scenario analysis in environmental impact assessment: Improving explorations of the future. Environmental Impact Assessment Re view, 27(3), 206219. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2006.11.001CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fahey, L., & Randall, R. M. (1998). Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios. John Wiley & Sons, Inc.Google Scholar
Höjer, M., Ahlroth, S., Dreborg, K.H., Ekvall, T., Finnveden, G., Hjelm, O., Hochschorner, E., Nilsson, M., & Palm, V. (2008). Scenarios in selected tools for environmental systems analysis. Journal of Cleaner Production, 16(18), 19581970. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2008.01.008CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johansen, I. (2018). Scenario modelling with morphological analysis. Technological Fore¬ casting and Social Change, 126, 116125. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.TECHFORE.2017.05.016CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Parolin, G., McAloone, T. C., & Pigosso, D. C. A. (2023). The Effects of Scenarios on Decision Making Quality in Early Design – An Empirical Study. Proceedings of the Design Society: 24th International Conference on Engineering Design (ICED23). https://doi.org/10.1017/pds.2023.338CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Parolin, G., Eriksen, H. A., Arnbjerg, J., McAloone, T. C., & Pigosso, D. C. A. (2023). Towards early environmental sustainability assessment in technology development – understanding and overcoming challenges. 2023 IEEE International Conference on Engineering, Technology and Innovation (ICE/ITMC)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schwartz, P. (1991). The Art of the Long View. Doubleday.Google Scholar
Turnheim, B., & Nykvist, B. (2019). Opening up the feasibility of sustainability transitions pathways (STPs): Representations, potentials, and conditions. Research Policy, 48(3), 775788. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2018.12.002CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Van der Heijden, K. (1996). Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversations. Wiley.Google Scholar
Varum, C. A., & Melo, C. (2010). Directions in scenario planning literature – A review of the past decades. Futures, 42(4), 355369. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.021CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wilder, J., Sossa, Z., Tatiana, V., Ríos, Á., Andrés, C., López, G., Carlos, J., & Piedrahita, P. (2021). Foresight by scenarios – a literature review (tech. rep. No. 4).Google Scholar
Wiebe, K., Zurek, M., Lord, S., Brzezina, N., Gabrielyan, G., Libertini, J., Loch, A., Thapa Parajuli, R., Vervoort, J., & Westhoek, H. (2018). Scenario Development and Fore sight Analysis: Exploring Options to Inform Choices. Annual Review of Environ ment and Resources, 43(1), 545570. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-102017-030109CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yüksel, I. (2012). Developing a MultiCriteria Decision Making Model for PESTEL Analysis. International Journal of Business and Management, 7(24). https://doi.org/10.5539/ijbm.v7n24p52CrossRefGoogle Scholar