Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-g7gxr Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-20T02:40:26.916Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

THE EFFECTS OF SCENARIOS ON DECISION-MAKING QUALITY IN EARLY DESIGN – AN EMPIRICAL STUDY

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  19 June 2023

Giácomo Parolin ,
Tim C. McAloone  and
Daniela C. A. Pigosso
Giácomo Parolin*
Affiliation:
Technical University of Denmark (DTU)
Tim C. McAloone
Affiliation:
Technical University of Denmark (DTU)
Daniela C. A. Pigosso
Affiliation:
Technical University of Denmark (DTU)
*
Parolin, Giácomo, DTU, Denmark, [email protected]

Abstract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

Scenario planning is often used in design practice to foster futures thinking, reduce uncertainties and improve decision-making. Scenarios are especially relevant for innovation activities in manufacturing companies, such as technology development, a particularly uncertain process where many trade-offs occur. This study is, to the authors knowledge, the first to empirically measure the effect of scenarios in decision-making quality, in the context of technology development. In a quasi-experiment, engineers from a manufacturing company and university students were independently asked to analyse a trade-off situation between environmental and financial aspects of a technology concept, with and without scenarios. The quality of decision-making quality for control and experiment groups was measured through a standardized questionnaire. The results show that scenarios had a positive impact in 6 of the 7 quality decision-making practices (QMDP), although the effect size is small. The results suggest that both expert and novice designers may benefit from using scenario planning when performing early-stage design activities by having awareness of the decision context, a more structured decision process, and clearer decision criteria.

Keywords

Futures studiesTechnology DevelopmentSustainabilityDecision makingEarly design phases
Type
Article
Information
Proceedings of the Design Society , Volume 3: ICED23 , July 2023 , pp. 3375 - 3384
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BYCreative Common License - NCCreative Common License - ND
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is unaltered and is properly cited. The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained for commercial re-use or in order to create a derivative work.
Copyright
The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press

References

Amrhein, V., Greenland, S. and McShane, B. (2019), “Scientists rise up against statistical significance”, Nature, Vol. 567 No. 7748, pp. 305–307, https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/d41586-019-00857-9.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Aristodemou, L., Tietze, F., O'Leary, E. and Shaw, M. (2019), A Literature Review on Technology Development Process (TDP) Models, https://dx.doi.org/10.17863/CAM.35692.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ashby, M., Coulter, P., Ball, N. and Bream, C. (2021), “Granta EduPack Eco Audit Tool - A White Paper”.Google Scholar
Bishop, P., Hines, A. and Collins, T. (2007), “The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques”, Foresight, Vol. 9 No. 1, pp. 5–25, https://dx.doi.org/10.1108/14636680710727516.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bisinella, V., Christensen, T.H. and Astrup, T.F. (2021), “Future scenarios and life cycle assessment: systematic review and recommendations”, The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, Vol. 26 No. 11, pp. 2143–2170, https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11367-021-01954-6.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bodin, R., Chermack, T.J. and Coons, L.M. (2016), “The Effects of Scenario Planning on Participant Decision-Making Style: A Quasi-Experimental Study of Four Companies”, Journal of Futures Studies, Vol. 21, https://dx.doi.org/10.6531/JFS.2016.20(4).A21.Google Scholar
Brilhuis-Meijer, E., Pigosso, D.C.A. and McAloone, T.C. (2016), “Integrating Product and Technology Development: A Proposed Reference Model for Dual Innovation”, Procedia CIRP, Elsevier B.V., Vol. 50, pp. 32–37, https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/J.PROCIR.2016.05.037.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bujar, M., McAuslane, N., Walker, S. and Salek, S. (2019), “The reliability and relevance of a quality of decision making instrument, quality of decision-making orientation scheme (QoDoS), for use during the lifecycle of medicines”, Frontiers in Pharmacology, Frontiers Media S.A., Vol. 9 No. JAN, p. 17, https://dx.doi.org/10.3389/FPHAR.2019.00017/BIBTEX.Google Scholar
Burgelman, R.A., Christensen, C.M. and Wheelwright, S.C. (2009), Strategic Management of Technology and Innovation, 5th ed., McGraw-Hill Irwin, Singapore.Google Scholar
Burleson, G.E., Herrera, S.V.S., Toyama, K.; and Sienko, K.H. (2021), “Initial Characterization of Novice Engineering Designers’ Consideration of Contextual Factors”, pp. 16–20, https://dx.doi.org/10.1017/pds.2021.447.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, D.T. and Stanley, J.C. (1963), Experimental and Quasi-Experimental Designs for Research, Houghton Mifflin Company.Google Scholar
Candy, S. and Dunagan, J. (2017), “Designing an experiential scenario: The People Who Vanished”, Futures, Elsevier Ltd, Vol. 86, pp. 136–153, https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/J.FUTURES.2016.05.006.Google Scholar
Chermack, T.J. (2004), “Improving decision-making with scenario planning”, Futures, Elsevier Ltd, Vol. 36 No. 3, pp. 295–309, https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0016-3287(03)00156-3.Google Scholar
Cluzel, F., Yannou, B., Millet, D. and Leroy, Y. (2016), “Eco-ideation and eco-selection of R&D projects portfolio in complex systems industries”, Journal of Cleaner Production, Elsevier, Vol. 112, pp. 4329–4343, https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/J.JCLEPRO.2015.08.002.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cooper, R.G. (2006), “Managing Technology Development Projects”, Research-Technology Management, Vol. 49 No. 6, pp. 23–31, https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/08956308.2006.11657405.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cross, N. (2004), “Expertise in design: an overview”, Design Studies, Vol. 25 No. 5, pp. 427–441, https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.destud.2004.06.002.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cucurachi, S., van der Giesen, C. and Guinée, J. (2018), “Ex-ante LCA of Emerging Technologies”, Procedia CIRP, Elsevier B.V., Vol. 69, pp. 463–468, https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.procir.2017.11.005.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Delpierre, M., Quist, J., Mertens, J., Prieur-Vernat, A. and Cucurachi, S. (2021), “Assessing the environmental impacts of wind-based hydrogen production in the Netherlands using ex-ante LCA and scenarios analysis”, Journal of Cleaner Production, Elsevier Ltd, Vol. 299, https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/J.JCLEPRO.2021.126866.Google Scholar
Donelan, R., Walker, S. and Salek, S. (2016), “The Development and Validation of a Generic Instrument, QoDoS, for Assessing the Quality of Decision Making”, Frontiers in Pharmacology, Frontiers Research Foundation, Vol. 7 No. JUL, p. 180, https://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fphar.2016.00180.Google ScholarPubMed
Doualle, B., Medini, K., Boucher, X., Brissaud, D. and Laforest, V. (2019), “Selection method of sustainable product-service system scenarios to support decision-making during early design stages”, Taylor & Francis, Vol. 13 No. 1, pp. 1–16, https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/19397038.2019.1660432.Google Scholar
van der Duin, P. (2016), Foresight in Organizations, Foresight in Organizations: Methods and Tools, Routledge, https://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781315728513.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gall, T., Vallet, F. and Yannou, B. (2022), “How to visualise futures studies concepts: Revision of the futures cone”, Futures, Pergamon, Vol. 143, p. 103024, https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/J.FUTURES.2022.103024.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
van der Giesen, C., Cucurachi, S., Guinée, J., Kramer, G.J. and Tukker, A. (2020), “A critical view on the current application of LCA for new technologies and recommendations for improved practice”, Journal of Cleaner Production, Elsevier, Vol. 259, p. 120904, https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/J.JCLEPRO.2020.120904.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Harries, C. (2003), “Correspondence to what? Coherence to what? What is good scenario-based decision making?”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier Inc., Vol. 70 No. 8, pp. 797–817, https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(03)00023-4.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Koen, P., Ajamian, G., Burkart, R., Clamen, A., Davidson, J., D'Amore, R., Elkins, C., et al. (2001), “Providing Clarity and A Common Language to the ‘Fuzzy Front End’”, Research-Technology Management, Vol. 44 No. 2, pp. 46–55, https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/08956308.2001.11671418.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miller, C.J., Smith, S.N. and Pugatch, M. (2020), “Experimental and quasi-experimental designs in implementation research”, Psychiatry Research, Elsevier, Vol. 283, p. 112452, https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/J.PSYCHRES.2019.06.027.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Mitchell, R., Phaal, R., Athanassopoulou, N., Farrukh, C. and Rassmussen, C. (2022), “How to Build a Customized Scoring Tool to Evaluate and Select Early-stage Projects”, Research-Technology Management, Routledge, Vol. 65 No. 3, pp. 27–38, https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/08956308.2022.2026185.Google Scholar
Neuhoff, R., Simeone, L. and Holst Laursen, L. (2022), “The potential of design-driven futuring to support strategising for sustainable futures”, The Design Journal, pp. 1–21, https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14606925.2022.2121057.Google Scholar
Olivier, R., Audard, G., Osset, P., Palluau, M. and Hugrel, C. (2021), Empreinte Projet: Evaluer l'empreinte Environnementale d'un Projet.Google Scholar
Phaal, R., Farrukh, C.J.P. and Probert, D.R. (2001), “Technology management process assessment: a case study”, International Journal of Operations & Production Management, # MCB University Press, Vol. 21 No. 8, pp. 1116–1132, https://dx.doi.org/10.1108/EUM0000000005588.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rip, A. (2015), “Technology Assessment”, International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences, Elsevier, pp. 125–128, https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-08-097086-8.85036-9.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Spielmann, M., Scholz, R., Tietje, O. and Haan, P. de. (2005), “Scenario Modelling in Prospective LCA of Transport Systems. Application of Formative Scenario Analysis (11 pp)”, The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, Springer, Vol. 10 No. 5, pp. 325–335, https://dx.doi.org/10.1065/lca2004.10.188.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tran, T.A. and Daim, T. (2008), “A taxonomic review of methods and tools applied in technology assessment”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, North-Holland, Vol. 75 No. 9, pp. 1396–1405, https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/J.TECHFORE.2008.04.004.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Villamil, C., Schulte, J. and Hallstedt, S. (2022), “Sustainability risk and portfolio management—A strategic scenario method for sustainable product development”, Business Strategy and the Environment, John Wiley and Sons Ltd, Vol. 31 No. 3, pp. 1042–1057, https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/BSE.2934.CrossRefGoogle Scholar