Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-lj6df Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-20T00:36:50.907Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

ASSESSING THE FUTURE: METHODS AND CRITERIA

Part of: Design Organisation and Management

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 June 2020

I. Gräßler ,
H. Thiele  and
P. Scholle
I. Gräßler
Affiliation:
Paderborn University, Germany
H. Thiele*
Affiliation:
Paderborn University, Germany
P. Scholle
Affiliation:
Paderborn University, Germany
*
*[email protected]

Abstract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

As time-to-market is getting shorter, customer needs have to be identified as early as possible in product development. Correctly applied, corporate foresight can give a glimpse into the future to anticipate such needs and thus gain a competitive advantage. A support tool to choose the appropriate method of foresight is not available yet. Thus, a literature study on foresight methods in industry is performed and a novel decision support tool is proposed which avoids high entrepreneurial risks. Based on the findings, potentials for future work are identified for different types of methods.

Keywords

empirical studiesdesign support systemdecision makingforesightdecision support tool
Type
Article
Information
Proceedings of the Design Society: DESIGN Conference , Volume 1 , May 2020 , pp. 569 - 576
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BYCreative Common License - NCCreative Common License - ND
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is unaltered and is properly cited. The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained for commercial re-use or in order to create a derivative work.
Copyright
The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press

References

Amer, M., Daim, T.U. and Jetter, A. (2013), “A review of scenario planning”, Futures, Vol. 46, pp. 23–40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2012.10.003CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ansoff, H.I. and McDonnell, E.J. (1990), Implanting strategic management, 2nd ed., Prentice Hall, New York.Google Scholar
Blessing, L.T.M. and Chakrabarti, A. (2009), DRM, a Design Research Methodology, Vol. 1. Auflage, Springer London, Guildford, Surrey. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-84882-587-1CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bradfield, R. et al. (2005), “The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning”, Futures, Vol. 37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.01.003CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burmeister, K. (Ed.) (2002), Zukunftsforschung und Unternehmen: Praxis, Methoden, Perspektiven, Z_dossier.Google Scholar
Butter, M. and Popper, R. (2008), “How are foresight methods selected?”, Foresight, Vol. 10 No. 6, pp. 62–89. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680810918586Google Scholar
Courtney, H., Kirkland, J. and Viguerie, P. (1997), “Strategy Under Uncertainty”, Harvard Buisness ReviewGoogle Scholar
Daheim, C. and Uerz, G. (2008), “Corporate foresight in Europe. From trend based logics to open foresight”, Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, Vol. 20 No. 3. https://doi.org/10.1080/09537320802000047CrossRefGoogle Scholar
European Foresight Monitoring Network (ENFM) (2009), Mapping Foresight: Revealing how Europe and other world regions navigate into the future, EUR, 24041 EN, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg.Google Scholar
Fink, A., Schlake, O. and Siebe, A. (2000), “Wie Sie mit Szenarien die Zukunft vorausdenken. Was Szenarien für die Früherkennung leisten und wie sie kon-kre-te Ent-schei-dun-gen unterstützen”, Harvard Business Manager, No. Special Issue.Google Scholar
Götze, U. (1993), Szenario-Technik in der strategischen Unternehmensplanung, DUV. Wirtschaftswissenschaft, 2nd ed., Dt. Univ.-Verl. [u.a.], Wiesbaden.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gräßler, I. (2015), “Umsetzungsorientierte Synthese mechatronischer Referenzmodelle. Implementation-oriented synthesis of mechatronic reference models”, In: Bertram, T. (Ed.), Konferenzband der VDI Mechatronik: Fachtagung Mechatronik 2015, Dortmund, pp. 167–172.Google Scholar
Gräßler, I., Hentze, J. and Scholle, P. (2016), “Enhancing systems engineering by scenario-based anticipation of future developments”, 11th International Conference on System of Systems Engineering, 12-14 June 2016, Kongsberg, Norway. https://doi.org/10.1109/SYSOSE.2016.7542938Google Scholar
Gräßler, I., Pottebaum, J. and Scholle, P. (2018), “Influence Factors for Innovation in Digital Self-Preparedness Services and Tools”, International Journal of Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, Vol. 10 No. 1, pp. 20–37. https://doi.org/10.4018/IJISCRAM.2018010102CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gräßler, I., Scholle, P. and Thiele, H. (2019), “Strategische Planung in Plattformen und Eco-Systemen mittels Szenario-Technik”, 27-28 July 2019, Paderborn. https://doi.org/10.17619/UNIPB/1-794CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Greve, E. and Krause, D. (2018), “An Assessment of Methods to Support the Design of Future Robust Modular Product Architectures”, In Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture, University of Zagreb, May 21-24, 2018, Croatia; The Design Society, Glasgow, UK, pp. 335–346. https://doi.org/10.21278/idc.2018.0249CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Iden, J., Methlie, L.B. and Christensen, G.E. (2017), “The nature of strategic foresight research. A systematic literature review”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.11.002CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahn, H. and Wiener, A.J. (1967), year 2000; a framework for speculation on the next thirty-three years.Google Scholar
Keenan, M. (2007), Combining Foresight: Methods for Impact, 3rd International Conference on Foresight.Google Scholar
Klüfers, P. et al. (2017), “Strategic Foresight – Die Zukunft antizipieren”, SIRIUS - Zeitschrift für Strategische Analysen, Vol. 1 No. 1, p. 441. https://doi.org/10.1515/sirius-2017-0004CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Krystek, U. and Stewens, G.M. (1992), Frühaufklärung für Unternehmen: Identifikation und Handhabung zukünftiger Chancen und Bedrohungen, Poeschel, CE, Stuttgart.Google Scholar
Lichtenthaler, E. (2005), “The choice of technology intelligence methods in multinationals. Towards a contingency approach”, International Journal of Technology Management, Vol. 32. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJTM.2005.007341CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Machi, L.A. and McEvoy, B.T. (2012), The literature review: Six steps to success, 2nd ed., Corwin, Thousand Oaks.Google Scholar
Pillkahn, U. (2008), Using Trends and Scenarios as Tools for Strategy Development, Wiley-VCH, Hoboken.Google Scholar
Popper, R. and Teichler, T. (2011), 1st EFP Mapping Report: Practical Guide to Mapping Forward-Looking Activities (FLA) Practices, Players and Outcomes, European Forsight Platform, Brussles.Google Scholar
Randt, N.P. (2015), “An approach to product development with scenario planning: The case of aircraft design”, Futures, Vol. 71, pp. 11–28, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2015.06.001CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reibnitz, U.V. (1992), Szenario-Technik: Instrumente für die unternehmerische und persönliche Erfolgsplanung, 2nd ed., Gabler, Wiesbaden.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wack, P. (1985), “Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids”, Harvard Buisness Review, Vol. 63 No. 6, pp. 139–150.Google Scholar