The present paper studies the likelihood ratio order of posterior distributions of parameter when the same order exists between the corresponding prior of the parameter, or when the observed values of the sufficient statistic for the parameter differ. The established likelihood order allows one to compare the Bayesian estimators associated with many common and general error loss functions analytically. It can also enable one to compare the Bayes factor in hypothesis testing without using numerical computation. Moreover, using the likelihood ratio (LR) order of the posterior distributions can yield the LR order between marginal predictive distributions, and posterior predictive distributions.

We consider a continuous review (s, S) model of perishable items with lost sales. Once items are perished the entire inventory drops instantaneously to zero. The total cost includes the cost of: ordering, unsatisfied demand, units destroyed, holding, and fixed cost of perishability. Both the time to perishability and the lead times are assumed to be exponentially distributed while two cases of demand distribution are considered: Poisson and compound Poisson with general demand sizes. We study the average cost criterion and provide computational results on the problem of finding the optimal re-order level, s, and order up-to level, S. None of the known work on the subject is as general as the model presented here. Our analysis leads to several insights on the optimal (s, S) policies for perishable items in the presence of lead times. For example, we demonstrate that the effectiveness of a heuristic that ignores perishability (and is also analyzed here) decreases with the demand variability and that the cost may either increase or decrease with this variability.

In this paper, we consider a generalized Pólya urn model with multiple drawings and time-dependent reinforcements. Suppose an urn initially contains w white and r red balls. At the nth action, m balls are drawn at random from the urn, say k white and m−k red balls, and then replaced in the urn along with cnk white and cn(m − k) red balls, where {cn} is a given sequence of positive integers. Repeat the above procedure ad infinitum. Let Xn be the proportion of the white balls in the urn after the nth action. We first show that Xn converges almost surely to a random variable X. Next, we give a necessary and sufficient condition for X to have a Bernoulli distribution with parameter w/(w + r). Finally, we prove that X is absolutely continuous if {cn} is bounded.

In Balaji and Mahmoud [1], the authors introduced a distance-based Gini index for rooted trees. In this paper, we introduce a degree-based Gini index (or just simply degree Gini index) for graphs. The latter index is a topological measure on a graph capturing the proximity to regular graphs. When applied across the random members of a class of graphs, we can identify an average measure of regularity for the class. Whence, we can compare the classes of graphs from the vantage point of closeness to regularity.

We develop a simplified computational formula for the degree Gini index and study its extreme values. We show that the degree Gini index falls in the interval [0, 1). The main focus in our study is the degree Gini index for the class of binary trees. Via a left-packing transformation, we show that, for an arbitrary sequence of binary trees, the Gini index has inferior and superior limits in the interval [0, 1/4]. We also show, via the degree Gini index, that uniform rooted binary trees are more regular than binary search trees grown from random permutations.

For rare blood groups the recruitment of donor relatives, for example siblings, is expected to be effective, since the probability of a similar rare blood group is likely. However, the likelihood differs between blood groups and is not commonly available. This paper provides a unified mathematical formulation to calculate such likelihoods. From a mathematical and probabilistic point of view, it is shown that these likelihoods can be obtained from the computation of a stationary genotype distribution. This, in turn, can be brought down to a system of quadratic stochastic operators. A generic mathematical approach is presented which directly leads to a stationary genotype distribution for arbitrary blood groups. The approach enables an exact computation for the effectiveness of recruiting next of kin for blood donorship. Next to an illustration of computations for ‘standard’ ABO and Rhesus-D blood groups, it is particularly illustrated for the extended Rhesus blood group system. Also other applications requiring next of kin blood group associations can be solved directly by using the unified mathematical formulation.

Most of the multivariate counting processes studied in the literature are regular processes, which implies, ignoring the types of the events, the non-occurrence of multiple events. However, in practice, several different types of events may occur simultaneously. In this paper, a new class of multivariate counting processes which allow simultaneous occurrences of multiple types of events is suggested and its stochastic properties are studied. For the modeling of such kind of process, we rely on the tool of superposition of seed counting processes. It will be shown that the stochastic properties of the proposed class of multivariate counting processes are explicitly expressed. Furthermore, the marginal processes are also explicitly obtained. We analyze the multivariate dependence structure of the proposed class of counting processes.

Consider a particular bidimensional risk model, in which two insurance companies divide between them in different proportions both the premium income and the aggregate claims. In practice, it can be interpreted as an insurer–reinsurer scenario, where the reinsurer takes over a proportion of the insurer's losses. Under the assumption that the claim sizes and inter-arrival times form a sequence of independent and identically distributed random pairs, with each pair obeying a dependence structure, an asymptotic expression for the ruin probability of this bidimensional risk model with constant interest rates is established.

Given a raw data sample, the purpose of this paper is to design a numerical procedure to model this sample under the form of polynomial chaos expansion. The coefficients of the polynomial are computed as the solution to a constrained optimization problem. The procedure is first validated on samples coming from a known distribution and it is then applied to raw experimental data of unknown distribution. Numerical experiments show that only five coefficients of the Chaos expansions are required to get an accurate representation of a sample.

In the present communication, we introduce quantile-based (dynamic) inaccuracy measures and study their properties. Such measures provide an alternative approach to evaluate inaccuracy contained in the assumed statistical models. There are several models for which quantile functions are available in tractable form, though their distribution functions are not available in explicit form. In such cases, the traditional distribution function approach fails to compute inaccuracy between two random variables. Various examples are provided for illustration purpose. Some bounds are obtained. Effect of monotone transformations and characterizations are provided.

A new stopping problem and the critical exercise price of American fractional lookback option are developed in the case where the stock price follows a special mixed jump diffusion fractional Brownian motion. By using Itô formula and Wick-Itô-Skorohod integral a new market pricing model is built, and the fundamental solutions of stochastic parabolic partial differential equations are deduced under the condition of Merton assumptions. With an optimal stopping problem and the exercise boundary, the explicit integral representation of early exercise premium and the critical exercise price are also derived. Numerical simulation illustrates the asymptotic behavior of this critical boundary.

The variable selection has been an important topic in regression and Bayesian survival analysis. In the era of rapid development of genomics and precision medicine, the topic is becoming more important and challenging. In addition to the challenges of handling censored data in survival analysis, we are facing increasing demand of handling big data with too many predictors where most of them may not be relevant to the prediction of the survival outcome. With the desire of improving upon the accuracy of prediction, we explore the Bregman divergence criterion in selecting predictive models. We develop sparse Bayesian formulation for parametric regression and semiparametric regression models and demonstrate how variable selection is done using the predictive approach. Model selections for a simulated data set, and two real-data sets (one for a kidney transplant study, and the other for a breast cancer microarray study at the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center) are carried out to illustrate our methods.

We consider single-server scheduling to minimize holding costs where the capacity, or rate of service, depends on the number of jobs in the system, and job sizes become known upon arrival. In general, this is a hard problem, and counter-intuitive behavior can occur. For example, even with linear holding costs the optimal policy may be something other than SRPT or LRPT, it may idle, and it may depend on the arrival rate. We first establish an equivalence between our problem of deciding which jobs to serve when completed jobs immediately leave, and a problem in which we have the option to hold on to completed jobs and can choose when to release them, and in which we always serve jobs according to SRPT. We thus reduce the problem to determining the release times of completed jobs. For the clearing, or transient system, where all jobs are present at time 0, we give a complete characterization of the optimal policy and show that it is fully determined by the cost-to-capacity ratio. With arrivals, the problem is much more complicated, and we can obtain only partial results.

We consider a two-node queue modeled as a two-dimensional random walk. In particular, we consider the case that one or both queues have finite buffers. We develop an approximation scheme based on the Markov reward approach to error bounds in order to bound performance measures of such random walks. The approximation scheme is developed in terms of a perturbed random walk in which the transitions along the boundaries are different from those in the original model and the invariant measure of the perturbed random walk is of product-form. We then apply this approximation scheme to a tandem queue and some variants of this model, for the case that both buffers are finite. The modified approximation scheme and the corresponding applications for a two-node queueing system in which only one of the buffers has finite capacity have also been discussed.

In this paper, we discuss new bounds and approximations for tail probabilities of certain discrete distributions. Several different methods are used to obtain bounds and/or approximations. Excellent upper and lower bounds are obtained for the Poisson distribution. Excellent approximations (and not bounds necessarily) are also obtained for other discrete distributions. Numerical comparisons made to previously proposed methods demonstrate that the new bounds and/or approximations compare very favorably. Some conjectures are made.

We study an online capacity planning problem in which arriving patients require a series of appointments at several departments, within a certain access time target.

This research is motivated by a study of rehabilitation planning practices at the Sint Maartenskliniek hospital (the Netherlands). In practice, the prescribed treatments and activities are typically booked starting in the first available week, leaving no space for urgent patients who require a series of appointments at a short notice. This leads to the rescheduling of appointments or long access times for urgent patients, which has a negative effect on the quality of care and on patient satisfaction.

We propose an approach for allocating capacity to patients at the moment of their arrival, in such a way that the total number of requests booked within their corresponding access time targets is maximized. The model considers online decision making regarding multi-priority, multi-appointment, and multi-resource capacity allocation. We formulate this problem as a Markov decision process (MDP) that takes into account the current patient schedule, and future arrivals. We develop an approximate dynamic programming (ADP) algorithm to obtain approximate optimal capacity allocation policies. We provide insights into the characteristics of the optimal policies and evaluate the performance of the resulting policies using simulation.

In this paper, we are concerned with the analysis of heavy-tailed data when a portion of the extreme values is unavailable. This research was motivated by an analysis of the degree distributions in a large social network. The degree distributions of such networks tend to have power law behavior in the tails. We focus on the Hill estimator, which plays a starring role in heavy-tailed modeling. The Hill estimator for these data exhibited a smooth and increasing “sample path” as a function of the number of upper order statistics used in constructing the estimator. This behavior became more apparent as we artificially removed more of the upper order statistics. Building on this observation we introduce a new version of the Hill estimator. It is a function of the number of the upper order statistics used in the estimation, but also depends on the number of unavailable extreme values. We establish functional convergence of the normalized Hill estimator to a Gaussian process. An estimation procedure is developed based on the limit theory to estimate the number of missing extremes and extreme value parameters including the tail index and the bias of Hill's estimator. We illustrate how this approach works in both simulations and real data examples.

The purpose of this paper is to provide further understanding into the structure of the sequential allocation (“stochastic multi-armed bandit”) problem by establishing probability one finite horizon bounds and convergence rates for the sample regret associated with two simple classes of allocation policies. For any slowly increasing function g, subject to mild regularity constraints, we construct two policies (the g-Forcing, and the g-Inflated Sample Mean) that achieve a measure of regret of order O(g(n)) almost surely as n → ∞, bound from above and below. Additionally, almost sure upper and lower bounds on the remainder term are established. In the constructions herein, the function g effectively controls the “exploration” of the classical “exploration/exploitation” tradeoff.

In this paper, we extend the strong laws of large numbers and entropy ergodic theorem for partial sums for tree-indexed nonhomogeneous Markov chains fields to delayed versions of nonhomogeneous Markov chains fields indexed by a homogeneous tree. At first we study a generalized strong limit theorem for nonhomogeneous Markov chains indexed by a homogeneous tree. Then we prove the generalized strong laws of large numbers and the generalized asymptotic equipartition property for delayed sums of finite nonhomogeneous Markov chains indexed by a homogeneous tree. As corollaries, we can get the similar results of some current literatures. In this paper, the problem settings may not allow to use Doob's martingale convergence theorem, and we overcome this difficulty by using Borel–Cantelli Lemma so that our proof technique also has some new elements compared with the reference Yang and Ye (2007).

This paper studies the allocation of active redundancies to coherent systems on the context that the base and redundancy components have mutual independent lifetimes. For systems with two symmetric components and systems with one component's minimal cut sets (minimal path sets) covering those of another, we derive sufficient conditions to compare the resultant system lifetimes. Some numerical examples are also presented to illustrate the theoretical results.

The elasticity of life expectancy is an important feature in life tables. It is also known as life table entropy in the areas of demography and biology, and as normalized cumulative residual entropy in reliability theory. The elasticity of life expectancy provides useful information on studying the way in which small variations in the force of mortality (or hazard rate) affects the life expectancy. In this paper, a perturbation analysis of the hazard rate to the expected interepoch intervals in a non-homogeneous Poisson process is applied, and further interpretations are given by using a normalized version of the generalized cumulative residual entropy. Properties of the elasticity, including ordering results, bounds and empirical estimation, are obtained. Moreover, the dynamic version of the elasticity is studied, and some monotonicity and characterization results are given.