Let [script S] be a system that can be in one of
two states, up or down. We can interpret the up state as
the working state and the down state as the nonworking
state for system [script S]. Assume the system [script S] is
up at time t = 0. Denote the elapsed time from zero
until [script S] enters down state by U1,
and the elapsed time from then until [script S] is up again
by D1. The interval
[0,U1 + D1)
is called cycle 1, and, at that point, cycle 2 starts and
the sequence is repeated so on and so forth. In general,
the up time and down time in the jth cycle are
denoted by Uj and
Dj, respectively, for j
≥ 1. We can introduce a binary process {X(t),
t ≥ 0} to describe the state of [script S] at time
t using X(t) = 1(0) to indicate
[script S] is up (down). Many problems require finding
the probability that [script S] is up at time t,
that is, P(X(t) = 1). However,
an even more interesting question to answer is what the
probability is that [script S] is in the up state in an
interval of length w starting at time t,
that is, P(X(s) = 1,
t ≤ s ≤ t + w).
Due to the complexity of this problem, no explicit expressions
are available for most systems even in the case where
(Uj, Dj),
j ≥ 1 are i.i.d. Fortunately, in practice engineers are more
interested in the long-run properties of the above two probabilities.