Let Sn(a1, …, an) be the sum of n independent exponential random variables with respective hazard rates a1, …, an or the sum of n independent geometric random variables with respective parameters a1, …, an. In this article, we investigate sufficient conditions on parameter vectors (a1, …, an) and under which Sn(a1, …, an) and are ordered in terms of the increasing convex and the reversed hazard rate orders for both exponential and geometric random variables and in terms of the mean residual life order for geometric variables. For the bivariate case, all of these sufficient conditions are also necessary. These characterizations are used to compare fail-safe systems with heterogeneous exponential components in the sense of the increasing convex and the reversed hazard rate orders. The main results complement several known ones in the literature.

This article considers an important class of discrete time restless bandits, given by the discounted multiarmed bandit problems with response delays. The delays in each period are independent random variables, in which the delayed responses do not cross over. For a bandit arm in this class, we use a coupling argument to show that in each state there is a unique subsidy that equates the pulling and nonpulling actions (i.e., the bandit satisfies the indexibility criterion introduced by Whittle (1988). The result allows for infinite or finite horizon and holds for arbitrary delay lengths and infinite state spaces. We compute the resulting marginal productivity indexes (MPI) for the Beta-Bernoulli Bayesian learning model, formulate and compute a tractable upper bound, and compare the suboptimality gap of the MPI policy to those of other heuristics derived from different closed-form indexes. The MPI policy performs near optimally and provides a theoretical justification for the use of the other heuristics.

We consider a two-player game in which the first player (the Guesser) tries to guess, edge-by-edge, the path that second player (the Chooser) takes through a directed graph. At each step, the Guesser makes a wager as to the correctness of her guess and receives a payoff proportional to her wager if she is correct. We derive optimal strategies for both players for various classes of graphs, and we describe the Markov-chain dynamics of the game under optimal play. These results are applied to the infinite-duration Lying Oracle Game, in which the Guesser must use information provided by an unreliable Oracle to predict the outcome of a coin toss.

In this article we consider a noncooperative n-person optimal stopping game of Showcase Showdown, in which each player observes the sum of independent and identically distributed random variables uniformly distributed in [0, 1]. Players can decide to stop the draw in each moment. The objective of a player is to get the maximal number of scores that does is not exceeded level 1. If the scores of all players exceed 1, then the winner is the player whose score is closest to 1. We derive the equilibrium in this game on the basis of the dynamic programming approach.

The goal of this work is twofold. We show the following:

1. 1. In spite of the common consensus on the classic Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) as a universal tool for generating samples on complex sets, it fails to generate points uniformly distributed on discrete ones, such as that defined by the constraints of integer programming. In fact, we will demonstrate empirically that not only does it fail to generate uniform points on the desired set, but typically it misses some of the points of the set.

2. 2. The splitting, also called the cloning method – originally designed for combinatorial optimization and for counting on discrete sets and presenting a combination of MCMC, like the Gibbs sampler, with a specially designed splitting mechanism—can also be efficiently used for generating uniform samples on these sets. Without introducing the appropriate splitting mechanism, MCMC fails. Although we do not have a formal proof, we guess (conjecture) that the main reason that the classic MCMC is not working is that its resulting chain is not irreducible. We provide valid statistical tests supporting the uniformity of generated samples by the splitting method and present supportive numerical results.

We revisit the probability that any two consecutive events in a Poisson process N on [0, t] are separated by a time interval that is greater than s (<t) (a particular scan statistic probability) and the closely related probability (recently introduced by Todinov [8], who denotes it as pMFFOP) that before any event of N in [0, t], there exists an event-free interval greater than s. Both probabilities admit simple explicit expressions, which, however, become intractable for very large values of t/s. Our main objective is to demonstrate that these probabilities can be approximated extremely well for large values of t/s by some very tractable and attractive expressions (actually, already for t larger than a few multiples of s).

In this article, we establish some results concerning the univariate and multivariate likelihood ratio order of generalized order statistics and the special case of m-generalized order statistics and their associated conditional variables. These results, in addition to being new, also generalizes some of the known results in the literature. Finally, some applications of all these results are indicated.