Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-dsjbd Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-22T13:30:09.472Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Epidemiology of Extreme Weather Event Disasters (1969-2018)

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 April 2020

Mark E. Keim Open the ORCID record for Mark E. Keim [Opens in a new window]
Mark E. Keim*
Affiliation:
DisasterDoc LLC, Lawrenceville, Georgia USA Emory University, Rollins School of Public Health, Atlanta, Georgia USA Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Harvard School of Medicine, Boston, MassachusettsUSA
*
Correspondence: Mark E. Keim, MD, MBA, 141 Chantilly Lane, Lawrenceville, Georgia USA30043, E-mail: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Introduction:

This manuscript summarizes the global incidence, exposures, mortality, and morbidity associated with extreme weather event (EWE) disasters over the past 50 years (1969-2018).

Methods:

A historical database (1969-2018) was created from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) to include all disasters caused by seven EWE hazards (ie, cyclones, droughts, floods, heatwaves, landslides, cold weather, and storms). The annual incidence of EWE hazards and rates of exposure, morbidity, and mortality were calculated. Regression analysis and analysis of variance (ANOVA) calculations were performed to evaluate the association between the exposure rate and the hazard incidence rate, as well as the association between morbidity and mortality incidence rates and rates of human exposure and annual EWE incidence.

Results:

From 1969-2018, 10,009 EWE disasters caused 2,037,415 deaths and 3,998,466 cases of disease. A reported 7,350,276,440 persons required immediate assistance. Floods and storms were the most common. Most (89%) of EWE-related disaster mortality was caused by storms, droughts, and floods. Nearly all (96%) of EWE-related disaster morbidity was caused by cold weather, floods, and storms. Regression analysis revealed strong evidence (R2 = 0.88) that the annual incidence of EWE disasters is increasing world-wide, and ANOVA calculations identified an association between human exposure rates and hazard incidence (P value = .01). No significant trends were noted for rates of exposure, morbidity, or mortality.

Conclusions:

The annual incidence of EWEs appears to be increasing. The incidence of EWEs also appears to be associated with rates of human exposure. However, there is insufficient evidence of an associated increase in health risk or human exposures to EWEs over time.

Keywords

climate changedisastersexposuresextreme weather eventshazards
Type
Original Research
Information
Prehospital and Disaster Medicine , Volume 35 , Issue 3 , June 2020 , pp. 267 - 271
Copyright
© World Association for Disaster and Emergency Medicine 2020

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Cambridge, UK; 2007.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC). Global Warming of 1.5°C. Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC; 2019.Google Scholar
Keim, M. Extreme weather events. In: GL, (ed). Climate and Health. First ed. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania USA: Lippincott, Williams & Wilkins; 2016:35–76.Google Scholar
Keim, M, Abrahams, J, Castilla-Echenique, J. How do People Die in Disasters and What can be Done? USA: DisasterDoc LLC; 2016. http://disasterdoc.org/how-do-people-die-in-disasters/.Google Scholar
Keim, M. Environmental Disasters. In: Frumkin, H, (ed). Environmental Health from Global to Local. Third ed. San Francisco, California USA: John Wiley and Sons; 2016:667–92.Google Scholar
Brouewer, R, Akter, S, Brander, L, et al.Socioeconomic vulnerability and adaptation to environmental risk: a case study of climate change and flooding in Bangladesh. Risk Anal. 2007;27(2):313–326.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). EM-DAT: The International Disaster Database. Brussels, Belgium: Ecole se Sante Publique, Universite Catholique de Louvain; 2019. www.emdat.be/.Google Scholar
Keim, M. Defining disaster-related health risk: a primer for prevention. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2018;33(3):308–316.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed