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Risk Factors and Predictability of Famine in Ethiopia

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 May 2016

Theodore M. Vestal
Theodore M. Vestal*
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, Oklahoma 74078-0220
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Abstract

Famine, a complex phenomenon with multifactorial causes, produces starvation and associated diseases resulting in unusually high mortality from a lack of food. Devastating famines in sub-Saharan Africa in the 1980s may have provided an impetus for scholars to find additional analytical tools for predicting famines. Two predominant theories of famines causality are (1) food availability decline (FAD), a supply failure; and (2) the entitlement approach based on a demand failure. Findings from both theories are applied to specific examples from Ethiopian famines to analyze the composition and effects of famine. The limited success of contemporary famines studies in anticipating famine suggests the need for improved analytical tools. Risk factor analysis, used successfully in the social sciences and the medical sciences to predict the occurrence of complicated phenomena, is developed to identify controllable, uncontrollable, and contributing factors to famine. Based on the experience of Ethiopia in 1983-86, categorical cutoff values for identifying a high risk of developing famine are formulated.

Type
Articles and Commentaries
Information
Politics and the Life Sciences , Volume 9 , Issue 2 , February 1991 , pp. 187 - 203
Copyright
Copyright © Association for Politics and the Life Sciences 

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