Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gxg78 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-24T02:40:50.109Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Who Wants to Make America Great Again? Understanding Evangelical Support for Donald Trump

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 July 2019

Michele F. Margolis
Michele F. Margolis*
Affiliation:
University of Pennsylvania
*
Address correspondence and reprint requests to: Department of Political Science, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA. E-mail: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

White evangelicals overwhelmingly supported Donald Trump in the 2016 election, producing extensive debate as to who evangelicals are, what it means to be an evangelical in the United States today, and whether the electoral results are surprising or not. This paper offers empirical clarity to this protracted discussion by asking and answering a series of questions related to Trump's victory in general and his support from white evangelicals in particular. In doing so, the analyses show that the term “evangelical” has not become a synonym for conservative politics and that white evangelical support for Trump would be higher if public opinion scholars used a belief-centered definition of evangelicalism rather than relying on the more common classification strategies based on self-identification or religious denomination. These findings go against claims that nominal evangelicals, those who call themselves evangelicals but are not religious, make up the core of Trump's support base. Moreover, strong electoral support among devout evangelicals is not unique to the 2016 election but rather is part of a broader trend of evangelical electoral behavior, even when faced with non-traditional Republican candidates. Finally, the paper explores why white evangelicals might support a candidate like Trump. The paper presents evidence that negative partisanship helps explain why devout evangelicals—despite Trump's background and behaviors being cause for concern—coalesced around his presidential bid. Together, the findings from this paper help make sense of both the 2016 presidential election and evangelical public opinion, both separately and together.

Type
Article
Information
Politics and Religion , Volume 13 , Issue 1 , March 2020 , pp. 89 - 118
Copyright
Copyright © Religion and Politics Section of the American Political Science Association 2019

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

For comments, suggestions, and feedback, I thank Adam Ziegfeld, participants at the University of Pennsylvania American Politics Working Group, and the MIT annual conference in American Politics. I am grateful to Jacob Ausubel, Erin Farrell, Nikki Lin, and Veronica Podolny for their excellent research assistance. Thanks also go to Dan Hopkins and Diana Mutz for the ISCAP data and to David Kinnaman from the Barna Group.

References

Abramowitz, Alan, and Webster, Steven. 2016. “The Rise of Negative Partisanship and the Nationalization of U.S. Elections in the 21st Century.” Electoral Studies 41: 12–22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Abramowitz, Alan, and Webster, Steven. 2017. “Negative Partisanship Explains Everything.” Politico. September/October.Google Scholar
Barna, George. 2018. “The Economy and Defense Sustain Trump's Evangelical Support.” The Christian Post. January 30.Google Scholar
Barrett, Mark. 2016. “Hold Your Nose and Vote,’ Graham Tells Christians.” Citizen Times. October 15.Google Scholar
Bebbington, David. 1989. Evangelicalism in Modern Britain: A History from the 1730s to the 1980s. Grand Rapids, MI: Baker Books.Google Scholar
Becker, Jo. 2012. “An Evangelical is Back from Exile, Lifting Romney.” The New York Times. September 22.Google Scholar
Boorstein, Michelle. 2016. “Why Donald Trump is Tearing Evangelicals Apart.” The Washington Post. March 15.Google Scholar
Brewer, Mark D., and Powell, Richard J.. 2014. “The Role of Religion in the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election.” In The 2012 Presidential Election. Forecasts, Outcomes, and Consequences, eds. Amnon, Cavari, Powell, Richard J., and Mayer, Kenneth R.. New York: Rowman & Littlefield, 23–44.Google Scholar
Bruinius, Harry. 2017. “Amid Evangelical Decline, Growing Split between Young Christians and Church Elders.” The Christian Science Monitor. October 10.Google Scholar
Bruinius, Harry. 2018. “Is the Label Evangelical more about Politics than Religious Beliefs?” The Christian Century. January 2.Google Scholar
Burge, Ryan P., and Lewis, Andrew R.. 2018. “Measuring Evangelicals: Practical Considerations for Social Scientists.” Politics and Religion 11: 745–759.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burton, Tara Isabella. 2018a. “Poll: White Evangelical Support for Trump is at an All-Time High.” Vox. April 20.Google Scholar
Burton, Tara Isabella. 2018b. “White evangelicals are the Only Religious Group to Support Trump.” Vox. October 3.Google Scholar
Byrnes, Jesse. 2016 “Trump Finishes 4th at Liberty University Despite Falwell Endorsement.” The Hill. March 1.Google Scholar
Campbell, David E., Layman, Geoffrey C., Green, John C., and Sumaktoyo, Nathanel G.. 2018. “Putting Politics First: The Impact of Politics on American Religious and Secular Orientations.” American Journal of Political Science 62(3): 551–565.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Choma, Becky, and Hanoch, Yaniv. 2017. “Cognitive Ability and Authoritarianism: Understanding Support for Trump and Clinton.” Personality and Individual Differences 106: 287–291.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cox, Daniel. 2018. “Are White Evangelicals Sacrificing the Future in Search of the Past.” FiveThirtyEight. January 24.Google Scholar
Douthat, Doug. 2016. “Donald Trump's Christian Soldiers.” The New York Times. March 10.Google Scholar
Djupe, Paul A., Neiheisel, Jacob R., and Sokhey, Anand E.. 2018. “Reconsidering the Role of Politics in Leaving Religion: The Importance of Affiliation.” American Journal of Political Science 62(1): 161–175.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Djupe, Paul A, Burge, Ryan P., and Lewis, Andrew R.. 2017. “Do We Have Any Idea who Evangelicals Are?” Religion in Public. December 14.Google Scholar
Egan, Patrick. 2018. “Identity as Dependent Variable: How Americans Shift their Identities to Better Align with their Politics.” Working Paper.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fea, John. 2018. “Should We Retire the ‘Bebbington Quadrilateral?’” The Way of Improvement Leads Home. January 4.Google Scholar
Feldman, Stanley (in press). “Authoritarianism, Threat, and Intolerance.” In At the Forefront of Political Psychology: Essays in Honor of John L. Sullivan, eds. Eugene, Borgida, Federico, Christopher, and Miller, Joanne, New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Friedman, Uri. 2016. “Trust in Government is Collapsing Around the World.” The Atlantic. July 1.Google Scholar
Gjelten, Tom. 2016. “Evangelical Leaders Question Movement's Support of Trump.” NPR. March 3.Google Scholar
Grant, Tobin. 2016. “New Data on Trump, Evangelicals, & Racism: Four Key Findings.” Religion News Service. March 24.Google Scholar
Green, John. 2010. The Faith Factor: How Religion Influences American Elections. Washington, DC: Potomac Books, Inc.Google Scholar
Goodstein, Laurie. 2012. “The Theological Differences Behind Evangelical Unease with Romney.” The New York Times. January 14.Google Scholar
Groshek, Jacob, and Koc-Michalska, Karolina. 2017. “Helping Populism Win? Social Media Use, Filter Bubbles, and Support for Populist Presidential Candidates in the 2016 US Election Campaign.” Information, Communication and Society 20(9): 1389–1407.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Guerra, David Patrick. 2016. “Actually, Most Evangelicals Don't Vote Trump.” Christianity Today. March 18.Google Scholar
Guth, James L., and Bradberry, Leigh A.. 2013. “Religion in the 2012 Election.” In The American Elections of 2012, eds. Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M. and Schier, Steven E.. New York: Routledge Press, 190–214.Google Scholar
Guth, James L., Kellstedt, Lyman A., Smidt, Corwin E., and Green, John C.. 2006. “Religious Influences in the 2004 Presidential Election.” Presidential Studies Quarterly 36(2): 223–242.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hackett, Conrad, and Lindsay, D. Michael. 2008. “Measuring Evangelicalism: Consequences of Different Operationalization Strategies.” Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion 47(3): 499–514.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hagerty, Barbara Bradley. 2012. “The Risks and Rewards of Romney's Faith Story.” NPR. August 29.Google Scholar
Hetherington, Marc. 2015. “Trust in Trump Comes from Lack of Trust in Government.” Brookings Institute. September 16.Google Scholar
Hout, Michael, and Fischer, Claude S.. 2002. “Why More Americans Have No Religious Preference: Politics and Generations.” American Sociological Review 67(2): 165–190.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hout, Michael, and Fischer, Claude S.. 2014. “Explaining Why More Americans Have No Religious Preference: Political Backlash and Generational Succession, 1987–2012.” Sociological Science 1(9): 423–447.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hunter, James D. 1991. Culture Wars. New York: Basic Books.Google Scholar
Iyengar, Shanto, Sood, Gaurav, and Lelkes, Yphtach. 2012. “Affect, Not Ideology: A Social Identity Perspective on Polarization.” Public Opinion Quarterly 76(3): 405–431.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Iyengar, Shanto, and Westwood, Sean J.. 2015. “Fear and Loathing across Party Lines: New Evidence on Group Polarization.” American Journal of Political Science 59(3): 690–707.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Iyengar, Shanto, Lelkes, Yphtach, Levendusky, Matthew, Malhotra, Neil, and Westwood, Sean J.. 2019. “The Origins and Consequences of Affective Polarization in the United States.” Annual Review of Political Science 22(1): 129–146.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jelen, Ted G., and Wald, Kenneth D.. 2018. “Evangelicals and President Trump: The Not So Odd Couple.” In God at the Grassroots 2016. The Christian Right in American Politics, eds. Rozell, Mark J. and Clyde, Wilcox. Lanham, MD: Roman & Littlefield, 19–46.Google Scholar
Johnson, Alex. 2016. “What's Behind Evangelical Support for Donald Trump? Less Than You Think.” NBC News. October 16.Google Scholar
Keller, Timothy. 2017. “Can Evangelicalism Survive Donald Trump and Roy Moore?” The New Yorker. December 19.Google Scholar
Kellstedt, Lyman A. 1989. “The Meaning and Measurement of Evangelicalism: Problems and Prospects.” In Religion and Political Behavior in the United States, ed. Jelen, Ted. New York: Praeger Books, 3–22.Google Scholar
Kellstedt, Lyman A., and Green, John C.. 1993. “Knowing God's Many People: Denominational Preference and Political Behavior.” In Rediscovering the Religious Factor in American Politics, eds. Leege, David C. and Kellstedt, Lyman A., New York: M.E. Sharpe, Inc., 53–71.Google Scholar
Kellstedt, Lyman A., Green, John C., Guth, James L., and Smidt, Corwin E.. 1996. “Grasping the Essentials: The Social Embodiment of Religion and Political Behavior.” In Religion and the Culture Wars, eds. Green, John C., Guth, James L., Smidt, Corwin E., and Kellstedt, Lyman A.. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 174–192Google Scholar
Kidd, Thomas S. 2016. “Polls Show Evangelicals Support Trump. But the Term ‘Evangelical’ Has Become Meaningless.” The Washington Post. July 22.Google Scholar
Leege, David C., and Kellstedt, Lyman A.. 1993. Rediscovering the Religious Factor in American Politics. New York: M.E. Sharpe, Inc.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., Norpoth, Helmut, Jacoby, William G., and Weisberg, Herbert F.. 2008. The American Voter Revisited. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
MacWilliams, Matthew. 2016. “Who Decides When the Party Doesn't? Authoritarian Voters and the Rise of Donald Trump.” PS: Political Science and Politics 49(4): 716–721.Google Scholar
Mansfield, Stephen. 2017. Choosing Donald Trump: God, Anger, Hope, and Why Christian Conservatives Supported Him. Grand Rapids: Baker Books.Google Scholar
Margolis, Michele F. 2018a. “How Politics Affects Religion: Partisanship, Socialization, and Religiosity in America.” The Journal of Politics 80(1): 30–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Margolis, Michele F. 2018b. From Politics to the Pews: How Partisanship and the Political Environment Shape Religious Identity. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marsden, George. 1991. Understanding Fundamentalism and Evangelicalism. Grand Rapids, MI: Wm. B. Eerdmans Publishing.Google Scholar
Merritt, Jonathan. 2015. “Defining ‘Evangelical.’” The Atlantic. December 7.Google Scholar
Miller, Emily Mcfarlan. 2016. “Trump Wins Big among Nominal Evangelicals, Less So among Most Devout.” The Washington Post. March 2.Google Scholar
Mooney, Michael J. 2012. “Robert Jeffress on the Dilemma Mitt Romney Poses for Evangelicals.” D Magazine. June 21.Google Scholar
Newport, Frank. 2016. “Trump Not Yet Generating Evangelical Republican Zeal.” Gallup. June 27.Google Scholar
Noll, Mark A. 2001. American Evangelical Christianity: An Introduction. Oxford: Wiley-Blackwell.Google Scholar
Patrikios, Stratos. 2008. “American Republican Religion? Disentangling the Causal Link Between Religion and Politics in the US.” Political Behavior 30(3): 367–389.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Patrikios, Stratos. 2013. “Self-Stereotyping as ‘Evangelical Republican’: An Empirical Test.” Politics and Religion 6: 800–822.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pew Research Center. 2012. “Election 2012 Post Mortem: White Evangelicals and Support for Romney.” December 7.Google Scholar
Posner, Sarah. 2017. “Amazing Disgrace.” The New Republic. March 20.Google Scholar
Prothero, Stephen. 2016. “The Huge Cultural Shift That's Helping Trump Win Evangelicals.” Politico. March 13.Google Scholar
Putnam, Robert D., and Campbell, David E.. 2010. American Grace: How Religion Divides and United Us. New York: Simon and Schuster.Google Scholar
Reynolds, David S. 2012. “Why Evangelicals Don't Like Mormons.” The New York Times. January 25.Google Scholar
Sides, John, Tesler, Michael, and Vavreck, Lynn. 2018. Identity Crisis: The 2016 Presidential Campaign and the Battle for the Meaning of America. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smidt, Corwin E. 2013. American Evangelicals Today Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.Google Scholar
Smidt, Corwin E., Kellstedt, Lyman A., and Guth, James L.. 2009. “The Role of Religion in American Politics: Explanatory Theories and Associated Analytical and Measurement Issues.” In The Oxford Handbook of Religion and American Politics, eds. Smidt, Corwin E., Kellstedt, Lyman A., and Guth, James A.. New York: Oxford University Press, 3–42.Google Scholar
Smietana, Bob. 2017. “Many who Call Themselves Evangelicals Don't Actually Hold Evangelical Beliefs.” LifeWay Research. December 7.Google Scholar
Smith, Christian. 1998. American Evangelicalism. Embattled and Thriving. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, Samuel. 2016. “Evangelical Trump Supporters Show ‘Evangelical’ has Lost its Meaning, Baylor Historian Says.” The Christian Post. July 27.Google Scholar
Smith, Tom W. 1990. “Classifying Protestant Denominations” Review of Religious Research 31(3): 225–245.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Steensland, Brian, Park, Jerry Z., Regnerus, Mark D., Robinson, Lynn D., and Wilcox, W. Bradford. 2000. “The Measure of American Religion: Toward Improving the State of the Art.” Social Forces 79(1): 291–318.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tesler, Michael. 2016. “A Newly Released Poll Shows the Populist Power of Donald Trump.” The Washington Post. January 27.Google Scholar
The Barna Group. 2016. “The State of the Church 2016.” September 15.Google Scholar
Valentino, Nicholas, Wayne, Carly, and Oceno, Marzia. 2018. Forthcoming. “Mobilizing Sexism: The Interaction of Emotion and Gender Attitudes in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election.” Public Opinion Quarterly.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Van Assche, Jasper, and Pettigrew, Thomas F.. 2016. “Comparing American and European Far-Right Voters.” Department of Development, Personality, and Social Psychology, Ghent University. Working paper.Google Scholar
Wald, Kenneth D., and Smidt, Corwin E.. 1993. “Measurement Strategies in the Study of Religion and Politics.” In Rediscovering the Religious Factor in American Politics, eds. Leege, David C. and Kellstedt, Lyman A.. New York: M.E. Sharpe, Inc., 26–49.Google Scholar
Wehner, Peter. 2017. “Why I Can No Longer Call Myself an Evangelical Republican.” The New York Times. December 9.Google Scholar
Whitehead, Andrew L., Perry, Samuel L., and Baker, Joseph O.. 2018. “Make America Christian Again: Christian Nationalism and Voting for Donald Trump in the 2016 Presidential Election.” Sociology of Religion 79(2): 147–171.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wilcox, Clyde, Jelen, Ted G., and Leege, David C.. 1993. “Religious Group Identifications: Toward a Cognitive Theory of Religious Mobilization.” In Rediscovering the Religious Factor in American Politics, eds. Leege, David C. and Kellstedt, Lyman A.. Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 72–99.Google Scholar
Wuthnow, Robert. 1988. The Restructuring of American Religion: Society and Faith Since World War II. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Margolis supplementary material

Appendices A-G

Download Margolis supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 592.6 KB