Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-hc48f Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-24T17:53:55.469Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Autocracy, Religious Restriction, and Religious Civil War

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 December 2016

Dongsuk Kim*
Affiliation:
Korea National Diplomatic Academy
Hyun Jin Choi
Affiliation:
Kyung Hee University
*
Address correspondence and reprint requests to: Dongsuk Kim, Korea National Diplomatic Academy, 2572 Nambusunhwan-ro, Seocho-gu, Seoul 06750, Republic of Korea. E-mail: [email protected]; or to: Hyun Jin Choi, Political Science Department, Kyung Hee University, 26 Kyungheedae-ro, Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul 02447, Republic of Korea. E-mail: [email protected].

Abstract

This article illuminates the relationship between level of religious restriction and the onset of religious civil war in the context of autocracy. That is, we investigate how autocrats' religious restriction accounts for religious civil war. We hypothesize that in autocracies, moderate religious restriction is likely to engender religious civil war (Hypothesis 1), policy change from religious laissez-faire to moderate restriction raises the probability of religious civil war (Hypothesis 2), and the transition from tight restriction to moderate restriction is likely to trigger religious civil war (Hypothesis 3). To test our hypotheses, we conduct statistical analyses as well as case studies. The results confirm Hypotheses 1 and 2, but not Hypothesis 3. This suggests that (1) within autocracies, different levels of religious restriction exert different effects on religious civil war and (2) moderate religious restriction is dangerous enough to spark religious civil war and religious laissez-faire helps to generate religious peace.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © Religion and Politics Section of the American Political Science Association 2016 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

This article was originally published online without the funding information, which now appears below. An addendum has been published in this issue.

This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Korean Government (NRF-2016S1A2A3913925).

References

REFERENCES

Abubakar, Ibrahim. 2013. “The Religious Tolerance in Malaysia: An Exposition.” Advances in Natural and Applied Sciences 7:9097.Google Scholar
Akbaba, Yasemin. 2009. “Who Discriminates More? Comparing Religious Discrimination in Western Democracies, Asia, and the Middle East.” Civil Wars 11:321358.10.1080/13698240903157578Google Scholar
Akbaba, Yasemin, and Taydas, Zeynep. 2011. “Does Religious Discrimination Promote Dissent? A Quantitative Analysis.” Ethnopolitics 10:271295.10.1080/17449057.2011.561988Google Scholar
Alesina, Alberto, Devleeschauwer, Arnaud, Easterly, William, Kurlat, Sergio, and Wacziarg, Romain. 2003. “Fractionalization.” Journal of Economic Growth 8:155194.10.1023/A:1024471506938Google Scholar
Ali, Ali Abdel Gadir, Elbadawi, Ibrahim A., and El-Batahani, Atta. 2005. “Sudan's Civil War: Why Has It Prevailed for So Long?” In Understanding Civil War, eds. Collier, Paul, and Sambanis, Nicholas. Washington, DC: The World Bank, 193219.Google Scholar
Baptiste, Nathalie. 2014. “The Central African Republic's Forgotten Crisis.” www.thenation.com/article/central-african-republics-forgotten-crisis (Accessed on July 16, 2016).Google Scholar
Basedau, Matthias, Fox, Jonathan, Pierskalla, Jan H., Strüver, Georg, and Vüllers, Johannes. 2015. “Does Discrimination Breed Grievances — and Do Grievances Breed Violence? New Evidence from an Analysis of Religious Minorities in Developing Countries.” Conflict Management and Peace Science, doi:10.1177/002002714541853.Google Scholar
Basedau, Matthias, Pfeiffer, Birte, and Vüllers, Johannes. 2016. “Bad Religion? Religion, Collective Action, and the Onset of Armed Conflict in Developing Countries.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 60:226255.10.1177/0022002714541853Google Scholar
BBC. 2008. “Burma: The Revolution that Didn't Happen.” www.news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7635419.stm (Accessed on December 2, 2015).Google Scholar
BBC. 2014. “Why is There Communal Violence in Myanmar?” www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-18395788 (Accessed on December 1, 2015).Google Scholar
BBC. 2015. “How Tunisia is Keeping Arab Spring Ideals Alive.” www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-34491553 (Accessed on August 2, 2016).Google Scholar
Bercovitch, Jacob, and Fretter, Judith. 2004. Regional Guide to International Conflict and Management from 1945 to 2003. Washington, DC: CQ Press.Google Scholar
Beck, Nathaniel, Katz, Jonathan, and Tucker, Richard. 1998. “Taking Time Seriously: Time Series-Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable.” American Journal of Political Science 42:12601288.10.2307/2991857Google Scholar
Bloom, Pazit Ben-Nun, Arikan, Gizem, and Sommer, Udi. 2014. “Globalization, Threat and Religious Freedom.” Political Studies 62:273291.10.1111/1467-9248.12060Google Scholar
Cadman, Toby. 2015. “Religious War in Central African Republic.” www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2015/06/religious-war-central-african- republic-150629104901894.html (Accessed on July 16, 2016).Google Scholar
Cederman, Lars-Erik, Wimmer, Andreas, and Min, Brian. 2010. “Why Do Ethnic Groups Rebel? New Data and Analysis.” World Politics 62:87119.10.1017/S0043887109990219Google Scholar
Channel News Asia. 2015. “Singapore's Religious Harmony a Legacy to be Treasured: PM Lee.” www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/singapore-s-religious/1842076.html (Accessed on June 15, 2015).Google Scholar
Cheibub, José Antonio, Gandhi, Jennifer, and Vreeland, James. 2010. “Democracy and Dictatorship Revisited.” Public Choice 143:67101.10.1007/s11127-009-9491-2Google Scholar
CIA World Factbook. 2015a. “Burma.” www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/bm.html (Accessed on December 1, 2015).Google Scholar
CIA World Factbook. 2015b. “Eritrea.” www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/er.html (Accessed on December 1, 2015).Google Scholar
Davenport, Christian. 1995. “Multi-Dimensional Threat Perception and State Repression: An Inquiry into Why States Apply Negative Sanctions.” American Journal of Political Science 39:683713.10.2307/2111650Google Scholar
De Soysa, Indra, and Nordås, Ragnhild. 2007. “Islam's Bloody Innards? Religion and Political Terror, 1980–2000.” International Studies Quarterly 51:927943.10.1111/j.1468-2478.2007.00483.xGoogle Scholar
Durkheim, Emile. 1964. The Elementary Forms of Religious Life. Trans. Swain, Joseph Ward. London: George Allen & Unwin.Google Scholar
Fearon, James, and Laitin, David. 2003. “Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War.” American Political Science Review 97:7590.10.1017/S0003055403000534Google Scholar
Finke, Roger. 2013. “Presidential Address: Origins and Consequences of Religious Freedoms: A Global Review.” Sociology of Religion 74:297313.10.1093/socrel/srt011Google Scholar
Finke, Roger, and Martin, Robert R.. 2014. “Ensuring Liberties: Understanding State Restrictions on Religious Freedoms.” Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion 53:687705.10.1111/jssr.12148Google Scholar
Fox, Jonathan. 1998. “The Effects of Religion on Domestic Conflicts.” Terrorism and Political Violence 10:4363.10.1080/09546559808427481Google Scholar
Fox, Jonathan. 2000. “The Ethnic-religious Nexus: The Impact of Religion on Ethnic Conflict.” Civil Wars 3:122.10.1080/13698240008402444Google Scholar
Fox, Jonathan. 2004. Religion, Civilization, and Civil War: 1945 through the New Millennium. Oxford: Lexington Books.Google Scholar
Fox, Jonathan. 2008. A World Survey of Religion and the State. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9780511993039Google Scholar
Fox, Jonathan. 2011. “Building Composite Measures of Religion and State.” Interdisciplinary Journal of Research on Religion 7:139.Google Scholar
Fox, Jonathan. 2013. An Introduction to Religion and Politics. New York, NY: Routledge.10.4324/9780203094419Google Scholar
Fox, Jonathan. 2015. Political Secularism, Religion, and the State. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9781139924610Google Scholar
Fox, Jonathan, and Akbaba, Yasemin. 2015. “Securitization of Islam and Religious Discrimination: Religious Minorities in Western Democracies, 1990–2008.” Comparative European Politics 13:175197.10.1057/cep.2013.8Google Scholar
Fox, Jonathan, James, Patrick, and Li, Yitan. 2009. “State Religion and Discrimination against Ethnic Minorities.” Nationalism and Ethnic Politics 15:189210.10.1080/13537110902921230Google Scholar
Gill, Anthony. 2008. The Political Origins of Religious Liberty. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Gleditsch, Nils Petter, Hegre, Håvard, and Strand, Håvard. 2009. “Democracy and Civil War.” In Handbook of War Studies III: The Intrastate Dimension, ed. Midlarsky, Manus I. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 155192.Google Scholar
Grim, Brian, and Finke, Roger. 2011. The Price of Freedom Denied: Religious Persecution and Violence. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Gryosby, Steven. 1994. “The Verdict of History: The Inexpungeable Tie of Primordiality — A Response to Eller and Coughlan.” Ethnic and Racial Studies 17:164171.10.1080/01419870.1994.9993817Google Scholar
Gurr, Ted Robert. 1970. Why Men Rebel. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Gurr, Ted Robert. 1993. “Why Minorities Rebel: A Global Analysis of Communal Mobilization and Conflict since 1945.” International Political Science Review 14:161201.10.1177/019251219301400203Google Scholar
Gurr, Ted Robert, and Moore, Will H.. 1997. “Ethnopolitical Rebellion: A Cross-sectional Analysis of the 1980s with Risk Assessments for the 1990s.” American Journal of Political Science 41:10791103.10.2307/2960482Google Scholar
Hasenclever, Andreas, and Rittberger, Volker. 2000. “Does Religions Make a Difference? Theoretical Approaches to the Impact of Faith on Political Conflict.” Millennium: Journal of International Studies 29:641674.10.1177/03058298000290031401Google Scholar
Haugbølle, Rikke Hostrup, and Cavatorta, Francesco. 2014. “Islamism in Tunisia before and after the Arab Spring.” In Popular Protest in the New Middle East: Islamism and Post-Islamist Politics, eds. Knudsen, Are, and Ezbidi, Basem. New York, NY: I.B. Tauris.Google Scholar
Henne, Peter S. 2012. “The Two Swords: Religion-State Connections and Interstate Disputes.” Journal of Peace Research 49:753768.10.1177/0022343312456225Google Scholar
Henne, Peter S. 2013. “The Domestic Politics of International Religious Defamation.” Politics and Religion 6:512537.10.1017/S1755048312000594Google Scholar
Hepner, Tricia Redeker. 2014. “Religion, Repression, and Human Rights in Eritrea and the Diaspora.” Journal of Religion in Africa 44:151188.10.1163/15700666-12340003Google Scholar
Horowitz, Donald L. 2000. Ethnic Groups in Conflict. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Juergensmeyer, Mark. 2000. Terror in the Mind of God: The Global Rise of Religious Violence. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Juergensmeyer, Mark. 2008. Global Rebellion: Religious Challenges to the Secular State, from Christian Militias to Al Qaeda. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Kalyvas, Stathis. 1999. “Wanton and Senseless? The Logic of Massacres in Algeria.” Rationality and Society 11:243285.10.1177/104346399011003001Google Scholar
King, Gary, Tomz, Michael, and Wittenberg, Jason. 2000. “Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation.” American Journal of Political Science 44:347361.10.2307/2669316Google Scholar
King, Gary, and Zeng, Langche. 2001. “Explaining Rare Events in International Relations.” International Organization 55:693715.10.1162/00208180152507597Google Scholar
Lacina, Bethany, and Gleditsch, Nils Petter. 2005. “Monitoring Trends in Global Combat: A New Dataset of Battle Deaths.” European Journal of Population 21:145166.10.1007/s10680-005-6851-6Google Scholar
Lichbach, Mark Irving. 1998. The Rebel's Dilemma. Ann Arbor, MI: Michigan University Press.Google Scholar
Ling, Trevor O. 1988. “Religious Minorities in Burma in the Contemporary Period.” In Ethnic Conflict in Buddhist Societies: Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Burma, eds. De Silva, K.M., Duke, Pensri, Goldberg, Ellen S., and Katz, Nathan. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.Google Scholar
Mansfield, Edward, and Snyder, Jack. 2004. Electing to Fight: Why Emerging Democracies Go To War. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Maoz, Zeev, and Henderson, Errol A.. 2013. “The World Religion Dataset, 1945–2010: Logic, Estimates, and Trends.” International Interactions 39:265291.10.1080/03050629.2013.782306Google Scholar
Mbogoni, Lawrence E. Y. 2004. The Cross verses The Crescent: Religion and Politics in Tanzania from the 1880s to the 1990s. Dar es Salaam, Tanzania: Mkuki na Nyota Publishers.Google Scholar
Muchlinski, David. 2014. “Grievances and Opportunities: Religious Violence across Political Regimes.” Politics and Religion 7:684705.10.1017/S1755048314000534Google Scholar
Muller, Edward N. 1985. “Income Inequality, Regime Repressiveness, and Political Violence.” American Sociological Review 50:4761.10.2307/2095339Google Scholar
Mwakikagile, Godfrey. 2010. Nyerere and Africa: End of an Era. Dar es Salaam, Tanzania: New Africa Press.Google Scholar
Neuberg, Steven L., Warner, Carolyn M., Mistler, Stephen A., et al. 2014. “Religion and Intergroup Conflict: Findings from the Global Group Relations Project.” Psychological Science 25:198206.Google Scholar
Ogbazghi, Petro B. 2011. “Personal Rule in Africa: The Case of Eritrea.” African Studies Quarterly 12:125.Google Scholar
Pearce, Susanna. 2005. “Religious Rage: A Quantitative Analysis of the Intensity of Religious Conflicts.” Terrorism and Political Violence 17:333352.Google Scholar
Philpott, Daniel. 2007. “Explaining the Political Ambivalence of Religion.” American Political Science Review 101:505525.10.1017/S0003055407070372Google Scholar
Reynal-Querol, Marta. 2002. “Ethnicity, Political Systems, and Civil Wars.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 46:2954.10.1177/0022002702046001003Google Scholar
Sambanis, Nicholas. 2001. “Do Ethnic and Nonethnic Civil Wars Have the Same Causes?Journal of Conflict Resolution 45:259282.10.1177/0022002701045003001Google Scholar
Sarkissian, Ani. 2012. “Religious Regulation and the Muslim Democracy Gap.” Politics and Religion 5:501527.10.1017/S1755048312000284Google Scholar
Sarkissian, Ani. 2015. The Varieties of Religious Repression: Why Governments Restrict Religion. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Sassoon, Joseph. 2012. Saddam Hussein's Ba'th Party: Inside an Authoritarian Regime. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Snyder, Jack. 2000. From Voting to Violence: Democratization and Nationalist Conflict. New York, NY: W.W. Norton & Company.Google Scholar
START (Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism). 2015. “Eritrean Islamic Jihad Movement (EIJM).” www.start.umd.edu/tops/terrorist_organization_profile.asp?id=4535 (Accessed on December 2, 2015).Google Scholar
Svensson, Isak. 2007. “Fighting with Faith: Religion and Conflict Resolution in Civil Wars.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 51:930949.10.1177/0022002707306812Google Scholar
Taylor, Philip, ed. 2007. Modernity and Re-enchantment: Religion in Post-revolutionary Vietnam. Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies Publishing.10.1355/9789812304568Google Scholar
Thyne, Clayton. 2007. “Sudan (1983–2005).” In Civil Wars of the World: Major Conflicts since World War II, eds. DeRouen, Karl Jr., and Heo, Uk. Santa Barbara, CA: ABC-CLIO, Inc., 735751.Google Scholar
Tilly, Charles. 1978. From Mobilization to Revolution. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.Google Scholar
Toft, Monica Duffy. 2006. “Issue Indivisibility and Time Horizons as Rationalist Explanations for War.” Security Studies 15:3469.Google Scholar
Toft, Monica Duffy. 2007. “Getting Religion? The Puzzling Case of Islam and Civil War.” International Security 31:97131.Google Scholar
Toft, Monica Duffy, Philpott, Daniel, and Shah, Timothy Samuel. 2011. God's Century: Resurgent Religion and Global Politics. New York, NY: W. W. Norton & Company,Inc.Google Scholar
Tullock, Gordon. 1971. “The Paradox of Revolution.” Public Choice 11:8999.10.1007/BF01726214Google Scholar
Turner, Brian S. 1991. Religion and Social Theory. 2nd ed. London: Sage.Google Scholar
Van Evera, Stephen. 2001. “Primordialism lives!APSA-CP: Newsletter of the Organized Section in Comparative Politics of the American Political Science Association 12:2022.Google Scholar
U.S. Department of State. 2001. International Religious Freedom Report. www.state.gov/documents/organization/9001.pdf (Accessed on September 1, 2015).Google Scholar
U.S. Department of State. 2002. International Religious Freedom Report. www.state.gov/j/drl/rls/irf/2002/index.htm (Accessed on September 1, 2015).Google Scholar
U.S. Department of State. 2004. International Religious Freedom Report. www.state.gov/j/drl/rls/irf/2004/index.htm (Accessed on September 1, 2015).Google Scholar
U.S. Department of State. 2005. International Religious Freedom Report. www.state.gov/j/drl/rls/irf/2005/index.htm (Accessed on September 1, 2015).Google Scholar
U.S. Department of State. 2006. International Religious Freedom Report. www.state.gov/j/drl/rls/irf/2006/index.htm (Accessed on September 1, 2015).Google Scholar
U.S. Department of State. 2007. International Religious Freedom Report. www.state.gov/j/drl/rls/irf/2007/index.htm (Accessed on September 1, 2015).Google Scholar
U.S. Department of State. 2008. International Religious Freedom Report. www.state.gov/j/drl/rls/irf/2008/index.htm (Accessed on September 1, 2015).Google Scholar
U.S. Department of State. 2012. International Religious Freedom Report. www.state.gov/j/drl/rls/irf/2012religiousfreedom/index.htm#wrapper (Accessed on September 1, 2015).Google Scholar
U.S. Department of State. 2015. International Religious Freedom Report. www.uscirf.gov/reports-briefs/annual-report/2015-annual-report (Accessed on September 1, 2015).Google Scholar
Wanniski, Jude. 2005. “Religious Toleration under Saddam? Really?” www.lewrockwell.com/2005/01/jude-wanniski/religious-toleration-under-saddam-really (Accessed on September 1, 2015).Google Scholar
Wellman, James Jr., and Tokuno, Kyoko. 2004. “Is Religious Violence Inevitable? Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion 43:291296.Google Scholar
Wimmer, Andreas. 2013. “States of War: How the Nation-State Made Modern Conflict.” www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/africa/2013-11-07/states-war (Accessed on October 15, 2015).Google Scholar
Wimmer, Andreas, Cederman, Lars-Erik, and Min, Brian. 2009. “Ethnic Politics and Armed Conflict: A Configurational Analysis of a New Global Data Set.” American Sociological Review 74:316337.Google Scholar