Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-jkksz Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-23T17:59:52.092Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Gender Attitudes and Candidate Preferences in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary and General Elections

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 June 2021

Meri T. Long
Affiliation:
University of Pittsburgh
Ryan Dawe
Affiliation:
Ohio State University
Elizabeth Suhay
Affiliation:
American University

Abstract

Scholars increasingly recognize that voters’ attitudes about gender shape their electoral preferences. Yet previous research has not captured important nuances of the relationship between gender attitudes and electoral choice. We argue that the effects of gender attitudes are not unidirectional and interact in complex ways with voters’ perceptions of candidates, depending not only on candidates’ sex but also on their gender-relevant characteristics and values. We draw on an original survey of Americans during the 2016 elections that measured three gender attitudes—hostile sexism, modern sexism, and traditional gender roles—and evaluations of primary and general election candidates. Our study design increases analytical leverage by examining actual and hypothetical candidate matchups. We find that among Democrats, hostile sexists were drawn to Bernie Sanders, but gender traditionalists preferred Hillary Clinton. Our results also suggest that if Sanders had been the Democratic nominee, gender egalitarians would have strongly supported him over Donald Trump, as they did Clinton.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the Women, Gender, and Politics Research Section of the American Political Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

We are grateful to Jennie Sweet-Cushman, Leonie Huddy, and Allison M. N. Archer for their helpful comments and discussion and to the three anonymous reviewers for their suggestions.

References

REFERENCES

Anastasopoulos, Lefteris. 2016. “Estimating the Gender Penalty in House of Representatives Elections Using a Regression Discontinuity Design.” Electoral Studies 43: 150–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Azevedo, Flavio, Jost, John T., and Rothmund, Tobias. 2017. “‘Making America Great Again’: System Justification in the U.S. Presidential Election of 2016.” Translational Issues in Psychological Science 3 (3): 231–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bauer, Nichole. 2017. “The Effects of Counterstereotypic Gender Strategies on Candidate Evaluations.” Political Psychology 38 (2): 279–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bobo, Lawrence D. 2017. “The Empire Strikes Back: The Fall of the Postracial Myth and Stirrings of Renewed White Supremacy.” Du Bois Review: Social Science Research on Race 14 (1): 15.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bracic, Ana, Israel-Trummel, Mackenzie, and Shortle, Allyson F. 2019. “Is Sexism for White People? Gender Stereotypes, Race, and the 2016 Presidential Election.” Political Behavior 41 (2): 281307.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burden, Barry C., Crawford, Evan, and Decrescenzo, Michael G.. 2016. “The Unexceptional Gender Gap of 2016.” The Forum 14 (4): 415–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burns, Nancy, and Kinder, Donald R.. 2012. “Categorical Politics: Gender, Race, and Public Opinion.” In New Directions in Public Opinion, ed. Berinsky, Adam J.. New York: Routledge, 139–67.Google Scholar
Carnes, Nicholas, and Lupu, Noam. 2021. “The White Working Class and the 2016 Election.” Perspectives on Politics 19 (1): 5572.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cassese, Erin C., and Barnes, Tiffany D.. 2019. “Reconciling Sexism and Women's Support for Republican Candidates: A Look at Gender, Class, and Whiteness in the 2012 and 2016 Presidential Races.” Political Behavior 41: 677700.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cassese, Erin C., and Holman, Mirya R.. 2019. “Playing the Woman Card: Ambivalent Sexism in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Race.” Political Psychology 40 (1): 5574.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chapin, Laura. 2015. “A Race to the Bottom on Women's Rights.” U.S. News & World Report, March 23. https://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/laura-chapin/2015/03/23/ted-cruz-ignites-2016-race-to-the-bottom-on-abortion-and-womens-health (accessed April 21, 2021).Google Scholar
Chozick, Amy. 2016. “Hillary Clinton Gets Personal on Christ and Her Faith.” New York Times, January 25. https://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/01/25/hillary-clinton-gets-personal-on-christ-and-her-faith/ (accessed April 21, 2021).Google Scholar
Corasaniti, Nick. 2016. “A Touchy-Feely Approach from Hillary Clinton.” The New York Times June 18. https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/19/us/politics/presidential-election-ads.html (accessed April 21, 2021).Google Scholar
Crowder-Meyer, Melody. 2013. “Gendered Recruitment without Trying: How Local Party Recruiters Affect Women's Representation.” Politics & Gender 9 (4): 390413.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Delavande, Adeline, and Manski, Charles F.. 2010. “Probabilistic Polling and Voting in the 2008 Presidential Election: Evidence from the American Life Panel.” Public Opinion Quarterly 74 (3): 433–59.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Dittmar, Kelly. 2016. “Finding Gender in Elections in 2016: Lessons from Presidential Gender Watch.” Center for American Women and Politics, Eagleton Institute of Politics, Rutgers University. https://genderwatch16.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Finding-Gender-in-Election-2016.pdf (accessed April 21, 2021).Google Scholar
Dolan, Kathleen. 2014. When Does Gender Matter? Women Candidates and Gender Stereotypes in American Elections. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duckitt, John, and Sibley, Chris G.. 2010. “Personality, Ideology, Prejudice, and Politics.” Journal of Personality 78 (6): 1861–93.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Fiske, Susan T., Cuddy, Amy J. C., Glick, Peter, and Xu, Jun. 2002. “A Model of (Often Mixed) Stereotype Content: Competence and Warmth.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 82 (6): 878902.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Flegenheimer, Matt, and Haberman, Maggie. 2016. “Donald Trump, Abortion Foe, Eyes ‘Punishment’ for Women, Then Recants.” New York Times, March 30. https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/31/us/politics/donald-trump-abortion.html (accessed April 21, 2021).Google Scholar
Gass, Nick, and Collins, Eliza. 2016. “Kasich Pitches Himself to Trump Supporters.” Politico, March 31. https://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/03/john-kasich-trump-abortion-criticism-221414 (accessed April 21, 2021).Google Scholar
Gay, Claudine, Jennifer L, Hochschild, and White, Ariel. 2014. “Americans’ Belief in Linked Fate: A Wide Reach but Limited Impact.” Presented at the American Political Science Association Annual Meeting, September 2–5, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Glick, Peter. 2019. “Gender, Sexism, and the Election: Did Sexism Help Trump More Than It Hurt Clinton?Politics, Groups, and Identities 7(3): 713–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Glick, Peter, and Fiske, Susan T.. 1996. “The Ambivalent Sexism Inventory: Differentiating Hostile and Benevolent Sexism.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 70 (3): 491512.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Glick, Peter, and Fiske, Susan T.. 2001. “Ambivalent Sexism.” Advances in Experimental Social Psychology 33: 115–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Glueck, Katie. 2016. “Cruz Seizes on Trump's Struggles with Women.” Politico, April 4. https://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/women-donald-trump-ted-cruz-wisconsin-221515 (accessed April 21, 2021).Google Scholar
Godbole, Maya A., Malvar, Noelle A., and Valian, Virginia V.. 2019. “Gender, Modern Sexism, and the 2016 Election.” Politics, Groups, and Identities 7 (3): 700712.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Haberkorn, Jennifer. 2016. “On Abortion, Kasich Is No Moderate.” Politico, February 5. https://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/john-kasich-abortion-2016-campaign-218846 (accessed April 21, 2021).Google Scholar
Hayes, Danny, and Lawless, Jennifer L.. 2016. Women on the Run: Gender, Media, and Political Campaigns in a Polarized Era. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Healy, Patrick, Alcindor, Yamiche, and Peters, Jeremy W.. 2016. “Bernie Sanders, Eyeing Convention, Willing to Harm Hillary Clinton in the Homestretch.” New York Times, May 18. https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/19/us/politics/bernie-sanderss-campaign-accuses-head-of-dnc-of-favoritism.html (accessed April 21, 2021).Google Scholar
Heilemann, John, and Halperin, Mark. 2010. Game Change: Obama and the Clintons, McCain and Palin, and the Race of a Lifetime. New York: HarperCollins.Google Scholar
Heldman, Caroline, Conroy, Meredith, and Ackerman, Alissa R.. 2018. Sex and Gender in the 2016 Presidential Election. Santa Barbara, CA: Praeger.Google Scholar
Jamieson, Kathleen Hall. 1997. Beyond the Double Bind: Women and Leadership. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Johnson, Jenna. 2016. “Donald Trump Calls Her ‘Crooked Hillary,’ but His Fans Just Say ‘B—.’” Washington Post, June 16. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/donald-trump-calls-her-crooked-hillary-but-his-fans-just-say-b----/2016/06/15/b33e166c-330c-11e6-8ff7-7b6c1998b7a0_story.html (accessed April 21, 2021).Google Scholar
Junn, Jane. 2017. “The Trump Majority: White Womanhood and the Making of Female Voters in the U.S.” Politics, Groups, and Identities 5 (2): 343–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kinder, Donald R., and Sanders, Lynn M.. 1996. Divided by Color: Racial Politics and Democratic Ideals. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
King, Neil Jr. 2013. “An Ohio Prescription for GOP: Lower Taxes, More Aid for Poor.” Wall Street Journal August 14.Google Scholar
Koenig, Anne M., Eagly, Alice H., Mitchell, Abigail A. and Ristikari, Tiina. 2011. “Let's Put Garbage-Can Regressions and Garbage-Can Probits Where They Belong.” Psychological Bulletin 137 (4): 616–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kolko, Jed. 2016. “Trump Was Stronger Where the Economy Is Weaker.” Five Thirty Eight, November 10. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-was-stronger-where-the-economy-is-weaker/ (accessed April 21, 2021).Google Scholar
Krupnikov, Yanna, Piston, Spencer, and Bauer, Nichole M.. 2016. “Saving Face: Identifying Voter Responses to Black Candidates and Female Candidates.” Political Psychology 37 (2): 253–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lawless, Jennifer L. 2015. “Women Running for Office.” In Emerging Trends in the Social and Behavioral Sciences, eds. Scott, Robert A. and Kosslyn, Stephen M.. San Francisco: Wiley, 19.Google Scholar
Lawless, Jennifer L., and Fox, Richard L.. 2010. It Still Takes a Candidate: Why Women Don't Run for Office. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lawrence, Regina G., and Rose, Melody. 2010. Hillary Clinton's Race for the White House: Gender Politics and the Media on the Campaign Trail. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.Google Scholar
Lee, Jayeon, and Lim, Young-Shin. 2016. “Gendered Campaign Tweets: The Cases of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.” Public Relations Review 42 (5): 849–55.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lupton, Robert, and Jacoby, William. 2017. “The Reliability of ANES Feeling Thermometers: An Optimistic View.” Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, April 6–9, Chicago.Google Scholar
Marcotte, Amanda. 2015. “Clinton's First Campaign Speech Is All about Feminism.” Slate, April 24. https://slate.com/human-interest/2015/04/hillary-clintons-first-campaign-speech-it-s-all-about-feminism.html (accessed April 21, 2021).Google Scholar
Martínez, Jessica, and Smith, Gregory A.. 2016. “Trump Has Benefited from Evangelicals’ Support, but He's Not the First Choice of the Most Committed.” Pew Research Center, April 4. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/04/04/trump-has-benefited-from-evangelicals-support-but-hes-not-the-first-choice-of-the-most-committed/ (accessed April 21, 2021).Google Scholar
McCarthy, Justin. 2019. “Less than Half in U.S. Would Vote for a Socialist for President.” Gallup, May 9. https://news.gallup.com/poll/254120/less-half-vote-socialist-president.aspx (accessed April 21, 2021).Google Scholar
McThomas, Mary, and Tesler, Michael. 2016. “The Growing Influence of Gender Attitudes on Public Support for Hillary Clinton, 2008–2012.” Politics & Gender 12 (1): 2849.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miller, Melissa K., and Peake, Jeffrey S.. 2013. “Press Effects, Public Opinion, and Gender: Coverage of Sarah Palin's Vice-Presidential Campaign.” International Journal of Press/Politics 18 (4): 482507.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mo, Cecilia Hyunjung. 2015. “The Consequences of Explicit and Implicit Gender Attitudes and Candidate Quality in the Calculations of Voters.” Political Behavior 37 (2): 357–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Neidig, Harper. 2016. “Poll: Most Americans Ready for Female President.” The Hill, March 4. https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/271866-poll-most-americans-ready-for-female-president (accessed April 21, 2021).Google Scholar
Ono, Yoshikuni, and Burden, Barry C. 2019. “The Contingent Effects of Candidate Sex on Voter Choice.” Political Behavior 41 (3): 583607.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Phillip, Abby. 2016. “Bernie Sanders Declares He Is a ‘Strong Feminist’ and ‘Honorary Woman.’” Washington Post, February 18. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/02/18/bernie-sanders-declares-he-is-a-strong-feminist-and-honorary-woman/ (accessed April 21, 2021).Google Scholar
Ratliff, Kate A., Redford, Liz, Conway, John, and Smith, Colin Tucker. 2017. “Engendering Support: Hostile Sexism Predicts Voting for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election.” Group Processes & Intergroup Relations 22 (4):578–93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rosenwasser, Shirley M., and Seale, Jana. 1988. “Attitudes towards a Hypothetical Male or Female Presidential Candidate: A Research Note.” Political Psychology 9 (4): 591–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rudman, Laurie A., and Glick, Peter. 2001. “Prescriptive Gender Stereotypes and Backlash toward Agentic Women.” Journal of Social Issues 57 (4): 743–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sanbonmatsu, Kita. 2002. “Gender Stereotypes and Vote Choice.” American Journal of Political Science 46 (1): 2034.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schaffner, Brian, and Clark, John A.. 2017. Making Sense of the 2016 Elections: A CQ Press Guide. Thousand Oaks, CA: CQ Press.Google Scholar
Schleifer, Theodore. 2016. “Ted Cruz: Making U.S. Women Eligible to Be Drafted Is ‘Nuts.’” CNN, February 8. https://www.cnn.com/2016/02/07/politics/ted-cruz-drafting-women-nuts (accessed April 21, 2021).Google Scholar
Sharrow, Elizabeth A., Strolovitch, Dara Z., Heaney, Michael T., Masket, Seth E., and Miller, Joanne M.. 2016. “Gender Attitudes, Gendered Partisanship: Feminism and Support for Sarah Palin and Hillary Clinton among Party Activists.” Journal of Women, Politics, & Policy 37 (4): 394416.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sides, John. 2016. “Are Voters Really Guided by Gender Stereotypes? New Research Says No.” Washington Post, June 27. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/06/27/gender-stereotypes-have-become-less-powerful-in-u-s-elections-heres-why/ (accessed April 21, 2021).Google Scholar
Sides, John, Tesler, Michael, and Vavreck, Lynn. 2018. Identity Crisis: The 2016 Presidential Election and the Battle for the Meaning of America. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sides, John, Tesler, Michael, and Vavreck, Lynn. 2020. “Gender Attitudes and American Public Opinion in the Trump Era.” In Dynamics of American Democracy: Partisan Polarization, Political Competition, and Government Performance, eds. Patashnik, Eric and Schiller, Wendy. Lawrence: University Press of Kansas, 156–83.Google Scholar
Simas, Elizabeth N., and Bumgardner, Marcia. 2017. “Modern Sexism and the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election: Reassessing the Casualties of the ‘War on Women.’Politics & Gender 13 (3): 359–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stevenson, Peter W. 2016. “The Fix Explains the Big Issues of 2016: Immigration.” Washington Post, June 8. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/06/08/the-fix-explains-the-big-issues-of-2016-immigration/ (accessed April 21, 2021).Google Scholar
Stout, Christopher T., Kretschmer, Kelsy, and Ruppanner, Leah. 2017. “Gender Linked Fate, Race/Ethnicity, and the Marriage Gap in American Politics.” Political Research Quarterly 70 (3): 509–22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Strauss, Daniel. 2015. “Kasich Super PAC Rolls Out First Direct Trump Attack Ad.” Politico, November 23. https://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/john-kasich-superpac-ad-donald-trump-216158 (accessed April 21, 2021).Google Scholar
Swim, Janet K., Aikin, Kathryn J., Hall, Wayne S., and Hunter, Barbara A.. 1995. “Sexism and Racism: Old-Fashioned and Modern Prejudices.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 68 (2): 199214.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Taub, Amanda. 2016. “The Rise of American Authoritarianism.” Vox, March 1. https://www.vox.com/2016/3/1/11127424/trump-authoritarianism (accessed April 21, 2021).Google Scholar
Thompson, Krissah. 2016. “Madam President? Ellen Johnson Sirleaf Knows the Job. Now She'd Like Some Company.” Washington Post, June 1. https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/madam-president-ellen-johnson-sirleaf-knows-the-job-now-shed-like-some-company/2016/06/01/6a5fc54a-2802-11e6-b989-4e5479715b54_story.html (accessed April 21, 2021).Google Scholar
Tolbert, Caroline J., Redlawsk, David P., and Gracey, Kellen J.. 2018. “Racial Attitudes and Emotional Responses to the 2016 Republican Candidates.” Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 28 (2): 245–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Valentino, Nicholas A., Wayne, Carly, and Oceno, Marzia. 2018. “Mobilizing Sexism: The Interaction of Emotion and Gender Attitudes in the 2016 US Presidential Election.” Public Opinion Quarterly 82 (1): 799821.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wang, Ching-Hsing. 2016. “Personality Traits, Political Attitudes and Vote Choice: Evidence from the United States.” Electoral Studies 44: 2634.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Williams, Melissa J., and Tiedens, Larissa Z.. 2016. “The Subtle Suspension of Blacklash: A Meta-Analysis of Penalties for Women's Implicit and Explicit Dominance Behavior.” Psychological Bulletin 142 (2): 165–97.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Winter, Nicholas. 2000. “Gendered and Re-Gendered: Public Opinion and Hillary Rodham Clinton.” Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, April 27–30, Chicago.Google Scholar
Winter, Nicholas. 2020. “The Two Faces of Sexism: Hostility, Benevolence, and American Elections.” https://www.nicholasjgwinter.com/assets/papers/WinterTwoFaces.pdf (accessed April 21, 2021).Google Scholar
Zeller, Shawn. 2016. “Hillary Clinton Has an Edge as a Democrat, Not a Woman.” Roll Call, July 26. https://www.rollcall.com/2016/07/26/hillary-clinton-has-an-edge-as-a-democrat-not-a-woman/ (accessed April 21, 2021).Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Bjarnegård et al. supplementary material

Online Appendix

Download Bjarnegård et al. supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 187 KB