Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gvvz8 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-22T16:11:50.641Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The polarization dynamics of electoral reforms

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 May 2020

Zachary Peskowitz Open the ORCID record for Zachary Peskowitz [Opens in a new window]  and
James Szewczyk
Zachary Peskowitz*
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
James Szewczyk
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
*
*Corresponding author. Email: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Electoral reforms affect legislative outcomes by influencing incumbent legislators’ behavior, new entrants’ behavior, and the probability that incumbents are replaced with new entrants. Empirical work on electoral reforms and polarization has focused on new entrants’ behavior. We employ a simple decision theoretic framework with partial incumbent policy persistence and spatial voting to examine the three channels jointly. We show that a reform designed to encourage ideological moderation produces larger effects on polarization when the reform is implemented than when it is removed. The key insight is that implementing a moderation-inducing reform generates a set of challengers who are more likely to defeat incumbents while the incumbents are more likely to win reelection when the reform is removed. We then empirically examine how elections and legislative polarization respond to unlimited PAC contributions in state legislatures. Examining incumbents’ decisions to stand for reelection, the electoral performance of incumbents who do run, and partisan polarization, we find empirical support for our predictions.

Keywords

American politicselections and campaignslegislative politicsrepresentation and electoral systems
Type
Original Article
Information
Political Science Research and Methods , Volume 10 , Issue 1 , January 2022 , pp. 116 - 135
Copyright
Copyright © The European Political Science Association 2020

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Adams, J, Engstrom, E, Joeston, D, Stone, W, Rogowski, J and Shor, B (2017) Do moderate voters weigh candidates’ ideologies? Voters’ decision rules in the 2010 congressional elections. Political Behavior 39, 205–227.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Asmussen, N and Jo, J (2016) Anchors away: a new approach for estimating ideal points comparable across time and chambers. Political Analysis 24, 172–188.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barber, MJ (2016) Ideological donors, contribution limits, and the polarization of American legislatures. Journal of Politics 78, 296–310.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Birkhead, NA (2015) The role of ideology in state legislative elections. Legislative Studies Quarterly 40, 55–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bonica, A (2013) Ideology and interests in the political marketplace. American Journal of Political Science 57, 294–311.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bonica, A (2016) Database on ideology, money in politics, and elections. Available at: http://data.stanford.edu/dime.Google Scholar
Burden, BC (2004) Candidate positioning in U.S. congressional elections. British Journal of Political Science 34, 211–227.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
DeBacker, JM (2015) Flip-flopping: ideological adjustment costs in the United State senate. Economic Inquiry 53, 108–128.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Diermeier, D, Keane, M and Merlo, A (2005) A political economy model of congressional careers. American Economic Review 95, 347–373.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Downs, A (1957) An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper.Google Scholar
Forand, JG (2014) Two-party competition with persistent policies. Journal of Economic Theory 152, 64–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fouirnaies, A and Hall, AB (2014) The financial incumbency advantage: causes and consequences. Journal of Politics 76, 711–724.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grainger, CA (2010) Redistricting and polarization: who draws the lines in California?. Journal of Law and Economics 53, 545–567.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hall, AB (2015) What happens when extremists win primaries?. American Political Science Review 109, 18–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hall, AB (2019) Who Wants to Run? How the Devaluing of Political Office Drives Polarization. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Klarner, C, Berry, W, Carsey, T, Jewell, M, Niemi, R, Powell, L and Snyder, J (2015) State legislative election returns data, 1967–2010. Available at: http://hdl.handle.net/1902.1/20401.Google Scholar
Kogan, V (2016) When voters pull the trigger: can direct democracy restrain legislative excesses?. Legislative Studies Quarterly 41, 297–325.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kousser, T (2005) Term Limits and the Dismantling of State Legislative Professionalism. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Kousser, T, Lewis, JB and Masket, SE (2007) Ideological adaptation? The survival instinct of threatened legislators. Journal of Politics 69, 828–843.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
La Raja, RJ and Schaffner, BF (2015) Campaign Finance and Political Polarization: When Purists Prevail. Ann Arbor, Mich.: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marshall, B and Peress, M (2017) Do voters know enough to punish out-of-step congressional candidates? Stony Brook University Working Paper. Available at: https://bjtmarshall.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/marshallperess.pdf.Google Scholar
McGhee, E and Shor, B (2017) Has the top two primary elected more moderates? Perspectives on Politics 15, 1053–1066.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McGhee, E, Masket, S, Shor, B, Rogers, S and McCarty, N (2014) A primary cause of partisanship? Nomination systems and legislator ideology. American Journal of Political Science 58, 337–351.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Montagnes, BP and Rogowski, JC (2015) Testing core predictions of spatial models: platform moderation and challenger success. Political Science Research and Methods 3, 619–640.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Myers, J (2018) California's free-for-all primary election rules could surprise everyone in 2018 … Again. Los Angeles Times (online) March 9, 2018.Google Scholar
Peskowitz, Z (2019) Ideological signaling and incumbency advantage. British Journal of Political Science 49, 467–490.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Poole, KT (2007) Changing minds? Not in congress. Public Choice 131, 435–451.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shor, B and McCarty, N (2011) The ideological mapping of American legislatures. American Political Science Review 105, 530–551.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stratmann, T (2000) Congressional voting over legislative careers: shifting positions and changing constraints. American Political Science Review 94, 665–676.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tavits, M (2007) Principle vs. pragmatism: policy shifts and political competition. American Journal of Political Science 51, 151–165.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tomz, M and Van Houweling, RP (2012) Candidate Repositioning. Stanford University Working Paper. Available at: https://web.stanford.edu/tomz/working/TomzVanHouweling-Repositioning-2012-10-24.pdf.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Peskowitz and JSzewczyk Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/JFZF0Y
Link
Supplementary material: PDF

Peskowitz and Szewczyk supplementary material

Peskowitz and Szewczyk supplementary material

Download Peskowitz and Szewczyk supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 249.4 KB