Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-xbtfd Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-06T05:03:52.015Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Opposition Parties and the Timing of Successful No-Confidence Motions

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 June 2015

Laron K. Williams
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

The power to remove the government via no-confidence motion is a powerful tool afforded to the opposition. By triggering the government’s downfall, opposition parties can substantially influence policy direction in parliamentary democracies. Yet, we know surprisingly little about how government and opposition parties interact to determine the occurrence of no-confidence motions and their chance of success. In this project, I develop a simple formal model that identifies the factors influencing when opposition parties propose no-confidence motions and their outcomes. I find support for these expectations by estimating an empirical model that is explicitly derived from the underlying theoretical model. Unlike previous empirical studies of government stability, this project honors the strategic interactions that occur between government and opposition parties. In addition to the possibility of the motion passing, opposition parties are motivated by electoral considerations, which induce different behaviors at various stages of the electoral cycle. This project offers a number of implications for the study of parliamentary politics, including theories of opposition behavior, democratic accountability, and government duration and termination.

Type
Original Articles
Information
Political Science Research and Methods , Volume 4 , Issue 3 , September 2016 , pp. 533 - 553
Copyright
© The European Political Science Association 2015 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

Laron K. Williams, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Department of Political Science, University of Missouri, 103 Professional Building, Columbia, MO 65211-6030 ([email protected]). A previous version of this paper was presented at the “Analyzing European Politics in the 21st Century” Conference at the European Union Center for Excellence, Texas A&M University, July 28–29, 2008. The author thanks James Adams, Daina Chiba, Michael T. Koch, Garrett Glasgow, Lanny Martin, Edward Morgan-Jones, Mark Nieman, Harvey Palmer, Zeynep Somer-Topcu, Randy Stevenson, Taehee Whang, Guy D. Whitten, and James Williams for their helpful comments and Brandon Park and Clint Swift for research assistance. To view supplementary material for this article, please visit http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2015.12

References

Austen-Smith, David, and Banks, Jeffery. 1990. ‘Stable Governments and the Allocation of Policy Portfolios’. The American Political Science Review 84(3):891–906.Google Scholar
Baron, David P. 1991. ‘A Spatial Bargaining Theory of Government Formation in Parliamentary Systems’. The American Political Science Review 85(1):137–164.Google Scholar
Baron, David P.. 1998. ‘Comparative Dynamics of Parliamentary Governments’. The American Political Science Review 92(3):593–609.Google Scholar
Barrett, Graham. 1992. ‘Coalition Collapse Sends Ireland to Polls’. The Age (Melbourne) 7.Google Scholar
Balke, Nathan S. 1990. ‘The Rational Timing of Parliamentary Elections’. Public Choice 65(3):201–216.Google Scholar
Bas, Muhammet A., Signorino, Curtis S., and Walker, Robert W.. 2008. ‘Statistical Backwards Induction: A Simple Method for Estimating Recursive Strategic Models’. Political Analysis 16(1):21–40.Google Scholar
Beck, Nathaniel. 2010. ‘Time Is Not a Theoretical Variable’. Political Analysis 18:293–294.Google Scholar
Beck, Nathaniel, Katz, Jonathan, and Tucker, Richard. 1998. ‘Taking Time Seriously: Time-Series-Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable’. American Journal of Political Science 42(4):1260–1288.Google Scholar
Diermeier, Daniel, and Stevenson, Randolph T.. 2000. ‘Cabinet Terminations and Critical Events’. American Political Science Review 94(3):627–640.Google Scholar
Diermeier, Daniel, and Stevenson, Randy T.. 1999. ‘Cabinet Survival and Competing Risks’. American Journal of Political Science 43(4):1051–1068.Google Scholar
Dodd, Lawrence. 1976. Coalitions in Parliamentary Government. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Heston, Alan, Summers, Robert, and Aten, Bettina. 2006. ‘Penn World Table Version 6.2’, Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania (CICUP), Philadelphia, PA.Google Scholar
Huber, John D. 1996. ‘The Vote of Confidence in Parliamentary Democracies’. American Political Science Review 90(2):269–282.Google Scholar
Huber, John D., and McCarty, Nolan. 2001. ‘Cabinet Decision Rules and Political Uncertainty in Parliamentary Bargaining’. The American Political Science Review 95(2):345–360.Google Scholar
Joyce, Joe. 1992. ‘Irish Coalition on Point of Collapse’. The Guardian (London) 22.Google Scholar
Kayser, Mark A. 2005. ‘Who Surfs, Who Manipulates? The Determinants of Opportunistic Election Timing and Electorally Motivated Economic Intervention’. American Political Science Review 99(1):1–11.Google Scholar
Keesing’s World Archives . 1960–2006. Keesing’s Record of World Events. London: Keesing’s Publications.Google Scholar
Laakso, Markku, and Taagepera, Rein. 1979. ‘Effective Number of Parties: A Measure with Application to Western Europe’. Comparative Political Studies 12(1):3–27.Google Scholar
Lewis, Jeffrey B., and Schultz, Kenneth A.. 2003. ‘Revealing Preferences: Empirical Estimation of a Crisis Bargaining Game with Incomplete Information’. Political Analysis 11(4):345–367.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lupia, Arthur W., and Strom, Kaare. 1995. ‘Coalition Termination and the Strategic Timing of Parliamentary Elections’. The American Political Science Review 89(3):648–665.Google Scholar
Mitchell, Paul. 2000. ‘Ireland: From Single-Party to Coalition Rule’. In Wolfgang C. Muller and Kaare Strom (eds), Coalition Governments in Western Europe, 126–157. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Muller, Wolfgang C., Torbjorn, Bergman and Kaare, Strom. 2006. ‘Parliamentary Democracy: Promise and Problems’. In Kaare Strom, Wolfgang C. Muller and Torbjorn Bergman (Eds.), Delegation and Accountability in Parliamentary Democracies, 3–33. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Palmer, Harvey D., and Whitten, Guy D.. 2000. ‘Government Competence, Economic Performance and Endogenous Election Dates’. Electoral Studies 19(2–3):413–426.Google Scholar
Powell, G. Bingham, and Whitten, Guy D.. 1993. ‘A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context’. American Journal of Political Science 37(2):391–414.Google Scholar
Schleiter, Petra, and Morgan-Jones, Edward. 2009. ‘Constitutional Power and Competing Risks: Monarchs, Presidents, Prime Ministers, and the Termination of East and West European Cabinets’. American Political Science Review 103(3):496–512.Google Scholar
Seki, Katsunori, and Williams, Laron K.. 2014. ‘Updating the Party Government Data Set’. Electoral Studies 34:270–279.Google Scholar
Signorino, Curtis S. 1999. ‘Strategic Interaction and the Statistical Analysis of International Conflict’. American Political Science Review 93(2):279–298.Google Scholar
Signorino, Curtis S.. 2002. ‘Strategy and Selection in International Relations’. International Interactions 29(1):93–115.Google Scholar
Signorino, Curtis S.. 2003. ‘Structure and Uncertainty in Discrete Choice Models’. Political Analysis 11(4):316–344.Google Scholar
Signorino, Curtis S., and Yilmaz, Kuzey. 2003. ‘Strategic Misspecification in Regression Models’. American Journal of Political Science 47(3):551–566.Google Scholar
Smith, Alastair. 2003. ‘Election Timing in Majoritarian Parliaments’. British Journal of Political Science 33(3):397–418.Google Scholar
Strom, Kaare. 1990. Minority Government and Majority Rule. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Strom, Kaare. 1994. ‘The Presthus Debacle: Intraparty Politics and Bargaining Failure in Norway’. American Political Science Review 88(1):112–127.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Strom, Kaare, and Swindle, Stephen M.. 2002. ‘Strategic Parliamentary Dissolution’. American Political Science Review 96(3):575–591.Google Scholar
Warwick, Paul. 1994. Government Survival in Parliamentary Democracies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Warwick, Paul V. 1992. ‘Rising Hazards: An Underlying Dynamic of Parliamentary Government’. American Journal of Political Science 36(4):875–887.Google Scholar
Williams, Laron K. 2011. ‘Unsuccessful Success? Failed No-Confidence Motions, Competence Signals, and Electoral Support’. Comparative Political Studies 44(11):1474–1499.Google Scholar
Williams, Laron K.. 2013. ‘Flexible Election Timing and International Conflict’. International Studies Quarterly 57(3):449–461.Google Scholar
Williams, Laron K.. 2014. ‘Hawks, Doves, and Opportunistic Opposition Parties’. Journal of Peace Research 51(1):111–125.Google Scholar
Woldendorp, Jaap, Keman, Hans, and Budge, Ian. 2000. Party Government in 48 Democracies (1945-1998). London: Kluwer Academic Publishers.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Williams supplementary material

Williams supplementary material 1

Download Williams supplementary material(File)
File 2.3 KB
Supplementary material: File

Williams supplementary material

Williams supplementary material 2

Download Williams supplementary material(File)
File 19.9 KB
Supplementary material: PDF

Williams supplementary material

Williams supplementary material 4

Download Williams supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 136.8 KB
Supplementary material: File

Williams supplementary material

Williams supplementary material 5

Download Williams supplementary material(File)
File 9.2 KB
Supplementary material: PDF

Williams supplementary material

Williams supplementary material 6

Download Williams supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 5.1 KB
Supplementary material: PDF

Williams supplementary material

Williams supplementary material 7

Download Williams supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 7.2 KB