Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-fscjk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-22T16:54:54.120Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

A New Approach to Estimating Electoral Instability in Parties*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  22 December 2014

Dani M. Marinova Open the ORCID record for Dani M. Marinova [Opens in a new window]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Recent scholarship has identified problems in the measurement of party system instability. To limit the conflation of different sources of instability in party systems (e.g., electoral shifts between stable parties and instability in parties, such as mergers, splinters or new parties), this article introduces a new indicator of electoral instability in parties, tests its robustness and construct validity and demonstrates its usefulness empirically. The indicators of party instability and the accompanying data of 27 European democracies, 1987–2011, will be valuable resources in comparative research on the interplay between elite and mass behavior, party and electoral systems, and democratic consolidation.

Type
Original Articles
Information
Political Science Research and Methods , Volume 3 , Issue 2 , May 2015 , pp. 265 - 280
Copyright
© The European Political Science Association 2014 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*

Dani M. Marinova, Post-Doctoral Researcher, Hertie School of Governance, Friedrichstraße 180, 10117 Berlin ([email protected], [email protected]). This manuscript was completed while the author was a visiting researcher at the Democracy, Elections and Citizenship research group at the Autonomous University of Barcelona, Spain. Eva Anduiza, Jack Bielasiak, Kenneth Janda, Timothy Hellwig, Jordi Muñoz and the anonymous reviewers offered comments on earlier drafts of this paper; Ian Anson and Nicholas D’Amico provided research assistance. The author acknowledges financial support from the National Science Foundation (Doctoral Dissertation Improvement Grant in Political Science to Marinova, SES 1065761). To view supplementary material for this article, please visit http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2014.35

References

Barnea, Shlomit, and Rahat, Gideon. 2011. ‘“Out With the Old, in With the ‘New’”: What Constitutes a New Party?’ Party Politics 17(3):303–320.Google Scholar
Barnes, Samuel H., McDonough, Peter, and Pina, Antonio Lopez. 1985. ‘The Development of Partisanship in New Democracies: The Case of Spain’. American Journal of Political Science 29(4):695–720.Google Scholar
Bengtsson, Asa. 2004. ‘Economic Voting: The Effect of Political Context, Volatility and Turnout on Voters’ Assignment of Responsibility’. European Journal of Political Research 43(5):749–767.Google Scholar
Berggren, Heidi M. 2001. ‘Institutional Context and Reduction of the Resource Bias in Political Sophistication’. Political Research Quarterly 54(3):531–552.Google Scholar
Bielasiak, Jack. 1997. ‘Substance and Process in the Development of Party Systems in East Central Europe’. Communist and Post-Communist Studies 30(1):23–44.Google Scholar
Bielasiak, Jack. 2002. ‘The Institutionalization of Electoral and Party Systems in Postcommunist States’. Comparative Politics 34(2):189–210.Google Scholar
Birch, Sarah. 1998. ‘Party System Formation and Voting Behavior in the Ukrainian Parliamentary Elections of 1994’. In Taras Kuzio (ed.), Contemporary Ukraine: Dynamics of Post-Soviet Transformation, 139–160. Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe.Google Scholar
Birch, Sarah. 2001. ‘Electoral Systems and Party System Stability in Post-Communist Europe’. The Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, 30 August–2 September, 2001, San Francisco, CA.Google Scholar
Delli Carpini, Michael X., and Keeter, Scott. 1996. What Americans Know About Politics and Why It Matters. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Dix, Robert H. 1992. ‘Democratization and the Institutionalization of Latin American Political Parties’. Comparative Political Studies 24(4):488–511.Google Scholar
Evans, Jocelyn A. J. 2002. ‘In Defence of Sartori’. Party Politics 8(2):155–174.Google Scholar
Fraile, Marta. 2013. ‘Do Information-Rich Contexts Reduce Knowledge Inequalities? The Contextual Determinants of Political Knowledge in Europe’. Acta Politica 48(2):119–143.Google Scholar
Friedrich, Carl J. 1968. Constitutional Government and Democracy: Theory and Practice in Europe and America, 4th ed. Waltham. MA: Blaisdell.Google Scholar
Gordon, Stacy B., and Segura, Gary M.. 1997. ‘Cross–National Variation in the Political Sophistication of Individuals: Capability or Choice?’ The Journal of Politics 59(1):126–147.Google Scholar
Grönlund, Kimmo, and Milner, Henry. 2006. ‘The Determinants of Political Knowledge in Comparative Perspective’. Scandinavian Political Studies 29(4):386–406.Google Scholar
Harmel, Robert, and Janda, Kenneth. 1994. ‘An Integrated Theory of Party Goals and Party Change’. Journal of Theoretical Politics 6(3):259–287.Google Scholar
Inglehart, Ronald. 1977. The Silent Revolution: Changing Values and Political Styles Among Western Publics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Janda, Kenneth. 1980. Political Parties: A Cross-National Survey. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Jungerstam-Mulders, Susanne. 2006. ‘Party System Change in Post-Communist EU Member States’. In Susanne Jungerstam-Mulders (ed.), Post-Communist EU Member States. Parties and Party Systems, 233–250. Aldershot: Ashgate.Google Scholar
Korasteleva, Elena A. 2000. ‘Electoral Volatility in Postcommunist Belarus’. Party Politics 6(3):343–358.Google Scholar
Kreuzer, Marcus, and Pettai, Vello. 2003. ‘Patterns of Political Instability: Affiliation Patterns of Politicians and Voters in Post-Communist Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania’. Studies in Comparative International Development 38(2):76–98.Google Scholar
Laakso, Markku, and Taagepera, Rein. 1979. ‘Effective Number of Parties: A Measure with Application to West Europe’. Comparative Political Studies 12(1):3–27.Google Scholar
Lane, Jan-Erik. 2008. Comparative Politics: The Principal-Agent Perspective. London and New York, NY: Routledge.Google Scholar
Laver, Michael. 1989. ‘Party Competition and Party System Change’. Journal of Theoretical Politics 1(3):301–324.Google Scholar
Lijphart, Arend. 1984. Democracies: Patterns of Majoritarian and Consensus Government in Twenty-One Countries, New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Maguire, Maria. 1983. ‘Is There Still Persistence? Electoral Change in Western Europe, 1948–1979’. In Hans Daalder and Peter Mair (eds), Western European Party Systems: Continuity and Change, 67–94. London: Sage.Google Scholar
Mainwaring, Scott. 1998. ‘Party Systems in the Third Wave’. Journal of Democracy 9(3):67–81.Google Scholar
Mainwaring, Scott, and Torcal, Mariano. 2006. ‘Party System Institutionalization and Party System Theory After the Third Wave of Democratization’. In Richard S. Katz and William Crotty (eds), Handbook of Political Parties, 204–227. London: Sage.Google Scholar
Mainwaring, Scott, and Zoco, Edurne. 2007. ‘Political Sequences and the Stabilization of Interparty Competition: Electoral Volatility and New Democracies’. Party Politics 13(2):155–178.Google Scholar
Mair, Peter. 1989. ‘The Problem of Party System Change’. Journal of Theoretical Politics 1(3):251–276.Google Scholar
Mair, Peter. 1997. Party System Change: Approaches and Interpretations. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Mair, Peter, Muller, Wolfgang, and Plasser, Fritz. 2004. Political Parties and Electoral Change: Party Responses to Electoral Markets. London: Sage.Google Scholar
Morlino, Leonardo. 1996. ‘Crisis of Parties and Change of Party System in Italy’. Party Politics 2(1):5–30.Google Scholar
O’Dwyer, Elena A. 2004. ‘Runaway State Building: How Political Parties Shape States in Postcommunist Eastern Europe’. World Politics 56(4):520–553.Google Scholar
Panebianco, Angelo. 1988. Political Parties: Organization and Power. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Pedersen, Morgens N. 1979. ‘The Dynamics of European Party Systems: Changing Patterns of Electoral Volatility’. European Journal of Political Research 7(1):1–26.Google Scholar
Powell, Eleanor N., and Tucker, Joshua. 2014. ‘Revisiting Electoral Volatility in Post-Communist Countries: New Data, New Results and New Approaches’. British Journal of Political Science 44(1):123–147.Google Scholar
Protsyk, Oleh, and Wilson, Andrew. 2003. ‘Centre Politics in Russia and Ukraine’. Party Politics 9(6):703–727.Google Scholar
Quinn, Kevin M., Martin, Andrew D., and Whitford, Andrew B.. 1999. ‘Voter Choice in Multi-Party Democracies: A Test of Competing Theories and Models’. American Journal of Political Science 43(4):1231–1247.Google Scholar
Rico, Guillem. 2010. ‘La formación de identidades partidistas en Europa: más allá de la teoría de Converse’. In M. Torcal (ed.), La ciudadanía europea en el siglo XXI, 143–174. Madrid: Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas.Google Scholar
Robbins, Joseph W., and Hunter, Lance Y.. 2012. ‘Impact of Electoral Volatility and Party Replacement on Voter Turnout Levels’. Party Politics 18(6):919–939.Google Scholar
Roberts, Andrew. 2010. The Quality of Democracy in Eastern Europe: Public Preferences and Policy Reforms, 1st ed. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Rose, Richard, and Urwin, Derek W.. 1970. ‘Persistence and Change in Western Party Systems Since 1945’. Political Studies 18(3):287–319.Google Scholar
Rose, Richard, and Munro, Neil. 2009. Parties and Elections in New European Democracies. Wivenhoe Park, Colchester: European Consortium for Political Research Press.Google Scholar
Rose, Richard, and Mishler, William. 2010. ‘A Supply-Demand Model of Party-System Institutionalization: The Russian Case’. Party Politics 16(6):801–821.Google Scholar
Shabad, Goldie, and Slomczynski, Kazimierz M.. 2004. ‘Inter-Party Mobility Among Parliamentary Candidates in Post-Communist East Central Europe’. Party Politics 10(2):151–176.Google Scholar
Sikk, Allan. 2005. ‘How Unstable? Volatility and the Genuinely New Parties in Eastern Europe’. European Journal of Political Research 44(3):391–412.Google Scholar
Sikk, Allan. 2012. ‘Newness as a Winning Formula for New Political Parties’. Party Politics 18(4):465–486.Google Scholar
Smith, Gordon. 1989. ‘A System Perspective on Party System Change’. Journal of Theoretical Politics 1(3):349–363.Google Scholar
Sniderman, Paul M. 2000. ‘Taking Sides: A Fixed Choice Theory of Political Reasoning’. In Arthur Lupia, Mathew D. McCubbins and Samuel L. Popkin (eds), Elements of Reason: Cognition, Choice, and the Bounds of Rationality, 67–84. Cambridge, New York Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Taagepera, R., and Grofman, B.. 2003. ‘Mapping the Indices of Seats-votes Disproportionality and Inter-election Volatility’. Party Politics 9(6):659–677.Google Scholar
Tavits, Margit. 2006. ‘Party System Change Testing a Model of New Party Entry’. Party Politics 12(1):99–119.Google Scholar
Tavits, Margit. 2008a. ‘On the Linkage Between Electoral Volatility and Party System Instability in Central and Eastern Europe’. European Journal of Political Research 47(5):537–555.Google Scholar
Tavits, Margit. 2008b. ‘Party Systems in the Making: The Emergence and Success of New Parties in New Democracies’. British Journal of Political Science 38(1):113–133.Google Scholar
Toole, James. 2000. ‘Government Formation and Party System Stabilization in East Central Europe’. Party Politics 6(4):441–461.Google Scholar
van der Brug, Wouter, van der Eijk, Cees, and Franklin, Mark. 2007. The Economy and the Vote: Economic Conditions and Elections in Fifteen Countries. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Marinova Dataset

Dataset

http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/26707
Link
Supplementary material: PDF

Marinova Supplementary Material

Appendix

Download Marinova Supplementary Material(PDF)
PDF 389.1 KB