Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-lnqnp Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-22T15:00:33.588Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Media, Protest Diffusion, and Authoritarian Resilience

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  13 June 2016

Haifeng Huang ,
Serra Boranbay-Akan  and
Ling Huang
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Do authoritarian governments always censor news about protests to prevent unrest from spreading? Existing research on authoritarian politics stresses the danger that information spread within the society poses for a regime. In particular, media and Internet reports of social unrest are deemed to threaten authoritarian rule, as such reports may incite more protests and thus spread instability. We show that such reasoning is incomplete if social protests are targeted at local officials. Allowing media the freedom to report local protests may indeed lead to protest diffusion, but the increased probability of citizen protest also has two potential benefits for the regime: (1) identifying and addressing more social grievances, thus releasing potential revolutionary pressure on the regime; (2) forcing local officials to reduce misbehavior, thus reducing underlying social grievances. For authoritarian governments whose survival is vulnerable to citizen grievances, allowing the media to report social protests aimed at local governments can therefore enhance regime stability and protect its interests under many circumstances. We construct a game-theoretic model to analyze the problem and illustrate the argument with examples from China.

Type
Original Articles
Information
Political Science Research and Methods , Volume 7 , Issue 1 , January 2019 , pp. 23 - 42
Copyright
© The European Political Science Association 2016 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*

Haifeng Huang is an Assistant Professor of Political Science in the School of Social Sciences, Humanities and Arts, University of California, Merced, 5200 N Lake Road, Merced, CA 95343 ([email protected]). Serra Boranbay-Akan is a Visiting Assistant Professor of Economics in the Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 ([email protected]). Ling Huang is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Economics, University of Connecticut, 365 Fairfield Way, U-1063, Storrs, CT 06269 ([email protected]). The authors thank Courtenay Conrad, Scott Gehlbach, Arturas Rozenas, Milan Svolik, Anna Bassi, Mike Munger, Benjamin Nyblade, Molly Roberts, David Soskice, Michael Thies, and Devesh Tiwari for very helpful comments. Previous versions of the article were presented at the 2010, 2011 and 2015 MPSA meetings, the 2015 ISA meeting, the SCPI-IX meeting, and the 2015 APSA meeting. To view supplementary material for this article, please visit http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2016.25

References

Allen-Ebrahimian, Bethany. 2015. ‘Explosion of Once-Scuttled Chemical Plant Riles China’s Web’. Foreign Policy, 6 April. Available at http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/04/06/chemical-explosion-china-px-nimby-environment-weibo/.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, and Downs, George W.. 2005. ‘Development and Democracy’. Foreign Affairs 84(5):77–86.Google Scholar
Cai, Yongshun. 2010. Collective Resistance in China: Why Popular Protests Succeed or Fail . Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Chen, Chih-Jou Jay. 2013. ‘Policing Protest in China: Findings from Newspaper Data’. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Association for Asian Studies. San Diego, CA, 21–24 March.Google Scholar
Chen, Jidong, Pan, Jennifer, and Xu, Yiqing. 2016. ‘Sources of Authoritarian Responsiveness: A Field Experiment in China’. American Journal of Political Science 60(2):383–400.Google Scholar
Chen, Jidong, and Xu, Yiqing. 2014. ‘Authoritarian Governance With Public Communication’. Working Paper.Google Scholar
Chen, Jidong, and Xu, Yiqing. Forthcoming. ‘Information Manipulation and Reform in Authoritarian Regimes’. Political Science Research and Methods. Available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2015.21.Google Scholar
Chen, Xi. 2012. Social Protest and Contentious Authoritarianism in China. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Chung, Jongpil. 2008. ‘Comparing Online Activities in China and South Korea: The Internet and the Political Regime’. Asian Survey 48(5):727–751.Google Scholar
Chung, Kelly. 2012. ‘China: Wukan Elections Continue and Inspire’. Global Voices Online, 19 February.Google Scholar
Duggan, Jennifer. 2013. ‘Kunming Pollution Protest is Tip of Rising Chinese Environmental Activism’. The Guardian, 16 May. Available at http://www.theguardian.com/environment/chinas-choice/2013/may/16/kunming-pollution-protest-chinese-environmental-activism.Google Scholar
Edmond, Chris. 2013. ‘Information Manipulation, Coordination, and Regime Change’. Review of Economic Studies 80(4):1422–1458.Google Scholar
Egorov, Georgy, Guriev, Sergei, and Sonin, Konstantin. 2009. ‘Why Resource-Poor Dictators Allow Freer Media: A Theory and Evidence from Panel Data’. American Political Science Review 103(4):645–668.Google Scholar
Fox, Jonathan. 1992. The Politics of Food in Mexico. Ithaca, NY and London: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Fox, Jonathan. 2015. ‘Social Accountability: What Does the Evidence Really Say?’. World Development 72:346–361.Google Scholar
Gandhi, Jennifer. 2008. Political Institutions Under Dictatorship. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Gehlbach, Scott, and Sonin, Konstantin. 2014. ‘Government Control of the Media’. Journal of Public Economics 118:163–171.Google Scholar
Gehlbach, Scott, and Keefer, Philip. 2011. ‘Investment Without Democracy: Ruling-Party Institutionalization and Credible Commitment in Autocracies’. Journal of Comparative Economics 39(2):123–139.Google Scholar
Guriev, S. Sergei, and Treisman, Daniel. 2015. ‘How Modern Dictators Survive: An Informational Theory of the New Authoritarianism’. NBER Working Paper No. 21136, Cambridge, MA.Google Scholar
Hale, Henry E. 2013. ‘Regime Change Cascades: What We Have Learned from the 1848 Revolutions to the 2011 Arab Uprisings’. Annual Review of Political Science 16:331–353.Google Scholar
Hassid, Jonathan. 2012. ‘Safety Valve or Pressure Cooker? Blogs in Chinese Political Life’. Journal of Communication 62(2):212–230.Google Scholar
Hess, Steve. 2015. ‘Foreign Media Coverage and Protest Outcomes in China: The Case of the 2011 Wukan Rebellion’. Modern Asian Studies 49(1):177–203.Google Scholar
Hollyer, James R., Rosendorff, B. Peter, and Vreeland, James Raymond. 2015. ‘Transparency, Protest and Autocratic Instability’. American Political Science Review 109(4):764–784.Google Scholar
Huang, Haifeng. 2015. ‘Propaganda as Signaling’. Comparative Politics 47(4):419–437.Google Scholar
Huntington, Samuel. 1991. The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century. Norman, OK: University of Oklahoma Press.Google Scholar
Jacobs, Andrew. 2012a. ‘Chinese Officials Find Misbehavior Now Carries Cost’. New York Times, 26 December. Available at http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/26/world/asia/corrupt-chinese-officials-draw-unusual-publicity.html.Google Scholar
Jacobs, Andrew. 2012b. ‘Residents Vote in Chinese Village at Center of Protest’. New York Times, 2 February. Available at http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/02/world/asia/residents-vote-in-chinese-village-at-center-of-protest.html.Google Scholar
Jacobs, Andrew, and Ansfield, Jonathan. 2011. ‘Catching Scent of Revolution, China Moves to Snip Jasmine’. New York Times, 11 May. Available at http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/11/world/asia/11jasmine.html.Google Scholar
Johnson, Ian. 2011. ‘Do China’s Village Protests Help the Regime?’ The New York Review of Books Blog, 22 December.Google Scholar
Johnson, Thomas. 2010. ‘Environmentalism and NIMBYism in China: Promoting a Rules-Based Approach to Public Participation’. Environmental Politics 19(3):430–448.Google Scholar
King, Gary, Pan, Jennifer, and Roberts, Margaret E.. 2013. ‘How Censorship in China Allows Government Criticism but Silences Collective Expression’. American Political Science Review 107(2):326–343.Google Scholar
Kristof, Nicolas D. 2006. ‘In China it is******* vs. Netizens’. New York Times, 20 June. Available at http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/20/opinion/20Kristof.html.Google Scholar
Kuran, Timur. 1991. ‘Now Out of Never: The Element of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989’. World Politics 44(1):7–48.Google Scholar
Lagerkvista, Johan. 2015. ‘The Unknown Terrain of Social Protests in China: “Exit”, “Voice”, “Loyalty”, and “Shadow”’. Journal of Civil Society 11(2):137–153.Google Scholar
Larson, Christina. 2011. ‘The New Epicenter of China’s Discontent’. Foreign Policy, 23 August. Available at http://foreignpolicy.com/2011/08/23/the-new-epicenter-of-chinas-discontent/.Google Scholar
Lau, Mimi. 2012. ‘Guangzhou Land Rally Erupts Amid Key Meeting’. South China Morning Post, 18 January. Available at http://www.scmp.com/article/990414/guangzhou-land-rally-erupts-amid-key-meeting.Google Scholar
Lee, Kingsyhon, and Ho, Ming-Sho. 2014. ‘The Maoming Anti-PX Protest of 2014’. China Perspectives 2014(3):33–39.Google Scholar
Leung, Alison, and Tang, Sisi. 2011. ‘Chinese Official Denies Reports of Deaths at Haimen Protest’. Reuters, 21 December.Google Scholar
Li, Cheng. 2006. ‘Think National, Blame Local: Central-Provincial Dynamics in the Hu Era’. China Leadership Monitor 17:1–24.Google Scholar
Lieberthal, Kenneth G., and Oksenberg, Michel. 1988. Policy Making in China: Leaders, Structures, and Processes. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Little, Andrew. 2016. ‘Communication Technology and Protest’. Journal of Politics 78(1):152–166.Google Scholar
Liu, Jun. 2013. ‘Mobile Communication, Popular Protests and Citizenship in China’. Modern Asian Studies 47(3):995–1018.Google Scholar
Liu, Xianghui, and Zhou, Lina. 2007. ‘Initiators of the Protect Xiamen Campaign Speak About the Whole Story of the Xiamen PX Incident’. China Newsweek, 28 December. Available at http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2007-12-28/101314622140.shtml, accessed 22 April 2016.Google Scholar
Liu, Yanxun. 2008. ‘Handing Chongqing’s Taxi Strike: How to Seize the “Golden 48 Hours” (Chongqing Chuzuche Bayun Chuli: “Huangjin 48 Xiaoshi” Ruhe Bawo)’. China Newsweek, 30 December. Available at http://www.chinanews.com/gn/news/2008/12-30/1507728.shtml, accessed 22 April 2016.Google Scholar
Lohmann, Susanne. 1994. ‘The Dynamics of Information Cascades—The Monday Demonstrations in Leipzig, East Germany, 1981-91’. World Politics 47(1):42–101.Google Scholar
Lorentzen, Peter. 2015. ‘China’s Controlled Burn: Information Management and State-Society Relations under Authoritarianism’. Book Manuscript.Google Scholar
Lorentzen, Peter L. 2013. ‘Regularizing Rioting: Permitting Public Protest in an Authoritarian Regime’. Quarterly Journal of Political Science 8(2):127–158.Google Scholar
Lorentzen, Peter L. 2014. ‘China’s Strategic Censorship’. American Journal of Political Science 58(2):402–414.Google Scholar
McCubbins, Mathew D., and Schwartz, Thomas. 1984. ‘Congressional Oversight Overlooked: Police Patrols Versus Fire Alarms’. American Journal of Political Science 28(1):165–179.Google Scholar
Myerson, Roger B. 2008. ‘The Autocrat’s Credibility Problem and Foundations of the Constitutional State’. American Political Science Review 102(1):125–139.Google Scholar
Nathan, Andrew J. 2003. ‘Authoritarian Resilience’. Journal of Democracy 14(1):6–17.Google Scholar
O’Brien, Kevin J. 1996. ‘Rightful Resistance’. World Politics 49(1):31–55.Google Scholar
Orlik, Tom. 2011. ‘Unrest Grows as Economy Booms’. Wall Street Journal, 26 September. Available at http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424053111903703604576587070600504108.Google Scholar
Osnos, Evan. 2012. ‘Brother Wristwatch and Grandpa Wen: Chinese Kleptocracy’. New Yorker, 25 October. Available at http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/brother-wristwatch-and-grandpa-wen-chinese-kleptocracy.Google Scholar
Page, Jeremy. 2011. ‘Call for Protests Unnerves Beijing’. Wall Street Journal, 21 February. Available at http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748703498804576156203874160350.Google Scholar
Perry, Elizabeth. 2010. ‘Popular Protest: Playing by the Rules’. In Joseph Fewsmith (ed.), China Today, China Tomorrow: Domestic Politics, Economy, and Society, 11–28. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers.Google Scholar
Shadmehr, Mehdi, and Bernhardt, Dan. 2011. ‘Collective Action With Uncertain Payoffs: Coordination, Public Signals and Punishment Dilemmas’. American Political Science Review 105(4):829–851.Google Scholar
Shadmehr, Mehdi, and Bernhardt, Dan. 2015. ‘State Censorship’. American Economic Journal: Microeconomics 7(2):280–307.Google Scholar
Shambaugh, David. 2008. China’s Communist Party: Atrophy and Adaptation. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Spegele, Brian. 2012. ‘Protests Halt Work on China Plant’. Wall Street Journal, 28 October. Available at http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052970204840504578084620690324436.Google Scholar
Steinhardt, H. Christoph. Forthcoming. ‘Discursive Accommodation: Popular Protest and Strategic Elite Communication in China’. European Political Science Review.Google Scholar
Sullivan, Jonathan. 2014. ‘Chinas Weibo: Is Faster Different?’. New Media & Society 16(1):24–37.Google Scholar
Svolik, Milan W. 2012. The Politics of Authoritarian Rule. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Tai, Qiuqing. 2014. ‘China’s Media Censorship: A Dynamic and Diversified Regime’. Journal of East Asian Studies 14(2):185–209.Google Scholar
Tong, Jingrong. 2010. ‘The Crisis of the Centralized Media Control Theory: How Local Power Controls Media in China’. Media, Culture & Society 32(6):925–942.Google Scholar
Wang, Chen, Wang, Shanshan, Ren, Zhongyuan, Zhu, Yushi, and Yu, Ning. 2013. ‘The Business of Deleting Internet Posts (Shantie Shengyi)’. Caixin New Century, No. 6, 18 February. Available at http://magazine.caixin.com/2013-02-08/100490897.html.Google Scholar
Wong, Stephen. 2008. ‘Taxi Protests Test China’s Tolerance’. Asia Times Online, 11 December. Available at http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/JL11Ad01.html.Google Scholar
Wu, Liwei. 2011. ‘Land Disputes and Clan Conflicts in Wukan Village (Wukan Cun de Tudi Jiufen yu Zongzu ZhiZheng)’. Life Weekly, 20 December. Available at http://www.lifeweek.com.cn/2011/1220/36080.shtml, accessed 22 April 2016.Google Scholar
Xi, Yihao. 2014. ‘Internet Police Bribe Internet Police: Deleting Posts for Superiors (Wangjing Huilu Wangjing: Ti Lingdao Shantie)’. Southern Weekend, 17 April. Available at http://news.ifeng.com/a/20140417/40003237_0.shtml, accessed 22 April 2016.Google Scholar
Xiao, Qiang. 2011. ‘The Battle for the Chinese Internet’. Journal of Democracy 22(2):47–61.Google Scholar
Yang, Guobin. 2009. The Power of the Internet in China: Citizen Activism Online. New York, NY: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Zhang, Tie. 2011. ‘What Does Wukan’s Turn Tell Us? (Wukan Zhuanji Gaosu Women Shenme)’. People’s Daily, 22 December. Available at http://politics.people.com.cn/GB/30178/16678491.html, accessed 22 April 2016.Google Scholar
Zhu, Jingruo. 2007. ‘Xiamen PX Project: Continuation, Suspension, or Relocation (Xiamen PX Xiangmu: Xujian, Tingjian, haishi Qianjian)’. People’s Daily, 19 December. Available at http://cpc.people.com.cn/GB/64093/82429/83083/6671367.html, accessed 22 April 2016.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Huang supplementary material

Appendix

Download Huang supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 156.6 KB