Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-rcrh6 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-24T16:55:31.912Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Invalid Ballots and Electoral Competition

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 September 2016

Gani Aldashev  and
Giovanni Mastrobuoni
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

In close elections, a sufficiently high share of invalid ballots—if driven by voter mistakes or electoral fraud—can jeopardize the electoral outcome. We study how the closeness of electoral race relates to the share of invalid ballots, under the traditional paper-ballot hand-counted voting technology. Using a large micro-level data set from the Italian parliamentary elections in 1994–2001, we find a strong robust negative relationship between the margin of victory of the leading candidate over the nearest rival and the share of invalid ballots. We argue that this relationship is not driven by voter mistakes, protest, or electoral fraud. The explanation that garners most support is that of rational allocation of effort by election officers and party representatives, with higher rates of detection of invalid ballots in close elections.

Type
Original Articles
Information
Political Science Research and Methods , Volume 7 , Issue 2 , April 2019 , pp. 289 - 310
Copyright
© The European Political Science Association 2016 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*

Gani Aldashev, Professor of Economics, Universitè libre de Bruxelles (ULB), ECARES, and CRED, University of Namur, 50 Avenue F Roosevelt, CP 114, 1050 Brussels ([email protected]). Giovanni Mastrobuoni, Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, University of Essex and Collegio Carlo Alberto, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester CO43SQ ([email protected]). The authors thank Enriqueta Aragones, Georg Kirchsteiger, Jim Snyder, and seminar participants at Collegio Carlo Alberto and the University of Padua for useful comments.

References

Altonji, Joseph G., Elder, Todd E., and Taber, Christopher R.. 2005. ‘Selection on Observed and Unobserved Variables: Assessing the Effectiveness of Catholic Schools’. Journal of Political Economy 113(1):151–184.Google Scholar
Ansolabehere, Stephen, and Stewart, Charles III. 2005. ‘Residual Votes Attributable to Technology’. Journal of Politics 67(2):365–389.Google Scholar
Baland, Jean-Marie, and Robinson, James. 2008. ‘Land and Power: Theory and Evidence from Chile’. American Economic Review 98(5):1737–1765.Google Scholar
Brennan, Geoffrey, and Lomasky, Loren. 1993. Democracy and Decision: The Pure Theory of Electoral Preference. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Brighenti, Andrea. 2003. L’impatto del Voto Elettronico sull’Elettorato Trentino: Un’Indagine sulle Schede Nulle. University of Trento, Trento, Italy.Google Scholar
Caltech and MIT Voting Technology Project. 2001. Voting: What Is, What Could Be. Pasadena and Cambridge: Caltech and MIT.Google Scholar
Card, David, and Moretti, Enrico. 2007. ‘Does Voting Technology Affect Election Outcomes? Touch Screen Voting and the 2004 Presidential Election’. The Review of Economics and Statistics 89(4):660–673.Google Scholar
Corbetta, Piergiorgio, and Piretti, Maria Serena. 2008. Atlante Storico-Elettorale D’ltalia. (1861-2008). Bologna, Italy: Zanichelli.Google Scholar
Dee, Thomas. 2007. ‘Technology and Voter Intent: Evidence from the California Recall Election’. The Review of Economics and Statistics 89(4):674–683.Google Scholar
Feddersen, Timothy, and Sandroni, Alvaro. 2006a. ‘A Theory of Participation in Elections’. American Economic Review 96(4):1271–1282.Google Scholar
Feddersen, Timothy, and Sandroni, Alvaro. 2006b. ‘Ethical Voters and Costly Information Acquisition’. Quarterly Journal of Political Science 1(3):287–311.Google Scholar
Fujiwara, Thomas. 2015. ‘Voting Technology, Political Responsiveness, and Infant Health: Evidence from Brazil’. Econometrica 83(2):423–464.Google Scholar
Harris, Joseph P. 1934. Electoral Administration in the United States. Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution.Google Scholar
Jacobs, Bart, and Pieters, Wolter. 2009. ‘Electronic Voting in the Netherlands: From Early Adoption to Early Abolishment’. In Alessandro Aldini, Gilles Barthe, and Roberto Gorrieri (eds), Foundations of Security Analysis and Design V: FOSAD 2007/2008/2009 Tutorial Lectures, 121–144. Berlin and Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg.Google Scholar
Knack, Stephen, and Kropf, Martha. 2003. ‘Voided Ballots in the 1996 Presidential Election: A County-Level Analysis’. Journal of Politics 65(3):881–897.Google Scholar
Lehoucq, Fabrice. 2003. ‘Electoral Fraud: Causes, Types, and Consequences’. Annual Review of Political Science 6:233–256.Google Scholar
Lehoucq, Fabrice E., and Molina, Ivan. 2002. Stuffing the Ballot Box: Fraud, Electoral Reform, and Democratization in Costa Rica. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
McAllister, Ian, and Makkai, Toni. 1993. ‘Institutions, Society or Protest? Explaining Invalid Votes in Australian Elections’. Electoral Studies 12(1):23–40.Google Scholar
Mueller, Dennis. 2003. Public Choice III. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Power, Timothy, and Garand, James. 2007. ‘Determinants of Invalid Voting in Latin America’. Electoral Studies 26(2):432–444.Google Scholar
Power, Timothy, and Roberts, Timmons. 1995. ‘Compulsory Voting, Invalid Ballots, and Abstention in Brazil’. Political Research Quarterly 48(4):795–826.Google Scholar
Schaffer, Fredric. 2007. Elections For Sale: The Causes and Consequences of Vote Buying. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers.Google Scholar
Schuessler, Alexander A. 2000. A Logic of Expressive Choice. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Shue, Kelly, and Luttmer, Erzo F. P.. 2009. ‘Who Misvotes? The Effect of Differential Cognition Costs on Election Outcomes’. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 1(1):229–257.Google Scholar
Stewart, Charles III. 2011. ‘Voting Technologies’. Annual Review of Political Science 14:353–378.Google Scholar
Stoppard, Tom. 1972. Jumpers. New York: Grove Press.Google Scholar
Uggla, Fredric. 2008. ‘Incompetence, Alienation, or Calculation? Explaining Levels of Invalid Ballots and Extra-Parliamentary Votes’. Comparative Political Studies 41(8):1141–1164.Google Scholar
Wand, Jonathan, Shotts, Kenneth, Sekhon, Jasjeet, Mebane, Walter, Herron, Michael, and Brady, Henry. 2001. ‘The Butterfly Did It: The Aberrant Vote for Buchanan in Palm Beach County, Florida’. American Political Science Review 95(4):793–810.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Aldashev and Mastrobuoni Dataset

Dataset

http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/IQVUAG
Link