Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-dlnhk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-22T03:39:52.443Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

From Posting to Voting: The Effects of Political Competition on Online Political Engagement*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 March 2015

Jaime E. Settle ,
Robert M. Bond ,
Lorenzo Coviello ,
Christopher J. Fariss ,
James H. Fowler  and
Jason J. Jones
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

How does living in a battleground state during a presidential election affect an individual’s political engagement? We utilize a unique collection of 113 million Facebook status updates to compare users’ political discussion during the 2008 election. “Battleground” state users are significantly more likely to discuss politics in the campaign season than are users in uncompetitive “blackout” states. Posting a political status update—a form of day-to-day engagement with politics—mediates ∼20 percent of the relationship between exposure to political competition and self-reported voter turnout. This paper is among the first to use a massive quantity of social media data to explain the microfoundations of how people think, feel, and act on a daily basis in response to their political environment.

Type
Original Articles
Information
Political Science Research and Methods , Volume 4 , Issue 2 , May 2016 , pp. 361 - 378
Copyright
© The European Political Science Association 2015 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*

Jaime E. Settle is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Government, College of William & Mary, Morton Hall, Room 10, 100 Ukrop Way, Williamsburg, VA 23187 ([email protected]). Robert M. Bond, Assistant Professor, School of Communication and Department of Sociology, Ohio State University Derby Hall, 3072 154 N. Oval Mall Columbus, OH 43210-1339 ([email protected]). Lorenzo Coviello, PhD Candidate in Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of California, San Diego 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA, 92093 ([email protected]). Christopher J. Fariss, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Pennsylvania State University, 200 Pond Lab University Park, PA 16802 ([email protected]). James H. Fowler, Professor, University of California, San Diego 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA, 92093 ([email protected]). Jason J. Jones, Assistant Professor, Department of Sociology and Institute for Advanced Computational Science State University of New York, Stony Brook Stony Brook, New York 11794-4356 ([email protected])

References

Arceneaux, Kevin, and Nickerson, David W.. 2009. ‘Who is Mobilized to Vote? A Re-Analysis of 11 Field Experiments’. American Journal of Political Science 53(1):1–16.Google Scholar
Ashenfelter, Orley, and Kelley, Stanley Jr. 1975. ‘Determinants of Participation in Presidential Elections’. Journal of Law and Economics 18(3):695–733.Google Scholar
Baron, Reuben M., and Kenny, David A.. 1986. ‘The Moderator-Mediator Variable Distinction in Social Psychological Research: Conceptual, Strategic, and Statistical Considerations’. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 51(6):1173–1182.Google Scholar
Benoit, William, Hansen, Glenn, and Holbert, R. Lance. 2004. ‘Presidential Campaigns and Democracy’. Mass Communication & Society 7(2):177–190.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berelson, Bernard, Lazarsfeld, Paul F., and McPhee, William N.. 1954. Voting: A Study of Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Bond, Robert M., Fariss, Christopher J., Jones, Jason J., Kramer, Adam D.I., Marlow, Cameron, Settle, Jaime E., and Fowler, James H.. 2012. ‘A Massive Scale Experiment in Social Influence and Political Mobilization’. Nature 489:295–298.Google Scholar
Brader, Ted, Valentino, Nicholas A., and Suhay, Elizabeth. 2008. ‘What Triggers Public Opposition to Immigration? Anxiety, Group Cues, and Immigration Threat’. American Journal of Political Science 52(4):959–978.Google Scholar
Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip, Miller, Warren, and Stokes, Donald. 1960. The American Voter. New York, NY: John Wiley and Sons, Inc.Google Scholar
Coviello, Lorenzo, Sohn, Yunkyu, Kramer, Adam D.I., Marlow, Cameron, Franceschetti, Massimo, Christakis, Nicholas A., and Fowler, James H.. 2014. ‘Detecting Emotional Contagion in Massive Social Networks’. PLoS One 9(3):e90315.Google Scholar
Cox, Gary, and Munger, Michael. 1989. ‘Closeness, Expenditures, and Turnout in the 1982 U.S. House Elections’. The American Political Science Review 83(1):217–231.Google Scholar
Druckman, James N., and McDermott, Rose. 2008. ‘Emotion and the Framing of Risky Choice’. Political Behavior 30(3):297–321.Google Scholar
Duggan, Maeve, and Smith, Aaron. 2013. ‘Social Media Update 2013’. Technical report, Pew Research Center Internet and American Life Project, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Franz, Michael M., and Ridout, Travis N.. 2010. ‘Political Advertising and Persuasion in the 2004 and 2008 Presidential Elections’. American Politics Research 38(2):303–329.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Freedman, Paul, and Goldstein, Ken. 1999. ‘Measuring Media Exposure and the Effects of Negative Campaign Ads’. American Journal of Political Science 43(4):1189–1208.Google Scholar
Freedman, Paul, Franz, Michael, and Goldstein, Kenneth. 2004. ‘Campaign Advertising and Democratic Citizenship’. American Journal of Political Science 48(4):723–741.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gerber, Alan, and Green, Donald. 1999. ‘Does Canvassing Increase Voter Turnout? A Field Experiment’. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 96(19):10939–10942.Google Scholar
Gerber, Alan, and Green, Donald. 2000a. The Effect of a Nonpartisan Get-Out-the-Vote Drive: An Experimental Study of Leafletting’. The Journal of Politics 62(3):846–857.Google Scholar
Gerber, Alan, and Green, Donald. 2000b. The Effects of Canvassing, Telephone Calls, and Direct Mail on Voter Turnout: A Field Experiment’. The American Political Science Review 94(3):653–663.Google Scholar
Gerber, Alan, Huber, Gregory, Dowling, Conor, Doherty, David, and Schwartzberg, Nicole. 2009. ‘Using Battleground States as a Natural Experiment to Test Theories of Voting’. Paper presented at the American Political Science Association annual meeting; Toronto, Canada, September 3–6, 2009.Google Scholar
Gimpel, James G., Kaufmann, Karen M., and Pearson-Merkowitz, Shanna. 2007. ‘Battleground States Versus Blackout States: The Behavioral Implications of Modern Presidential Campaigns’. Journal of Politics 69(3):786–797.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goldstein, Kenneth, and Ridout, Travis. 2002. ‘The Politics of Participation: Mobilization and Turnout Over Time’. Political Behavior 24(1):3–29.Google Scholar
Green, Donald, Gerber, Alan, and Nickerson, David W.. 2003. ‘Getting Out the Vote in Local Elections: Results from Six Door-to-Door Canvassing Experiments’. The Journal of Politics 65(4):1083–1096.Google Scholar
Grofman, Bernard, Collet, Christian, and Griffin, Robert. 1998. ‘Analyzing the Turnout-Competition Link with Aggregate Cross-Sectional Data’. Public Choice 95(3/4):233–246.Google Scholar
Hampton, Keith N., Sessions, Lauren, Rainie, Goulet Lee, and Purcell, Kristen. 2011. ‘Social Networking Sites and Our Lives: How People’s Trust, Personal Relationships, and Civic and Political Involvement are Connected to Their Use of Social Networking Sites and Other Technologies’. Technical report, Pew Research Center Internet and American Life Project, Washington, D.C. Available at http://pewinternet.org/Reports/2011/Technology-and-social-networks.aspx, accesed 5 June 2013.Google Scholar
Hill, David, and McKee, Seth C.. 2005. ‘The Electoral College, Mobilization, and Turnout in the 2000 Presidential Election’. American Politics Research 33(5):700–725.Google Scholar
Hillygus, D. Sunshine. 2005. ‘Campaign Effects and the Dynamics of Turnout Intention in Election 2000’. The Journal of Politics 67(1):50–68.Google Scholar
Ho, Daniel, Imai, Kosuke, King, Gary, and Stuart, Elizabeth. 2007. ‘Matching as Nonparametric Preprocessing for Reducing Model Dependence in Parametric Causal Inference’. Political Analysis 15(3):199–236.Google Scholar
Ho, Daniel, Imai, Kosuke, King, Gary, and Stuart, Elizabeth. 2011. ‘MatchIt: Non-parametric Preprocessing for Parametric Causal Inference’. Journal of Statistical Software 42(8):1–28.Google Scholar
Hoffstetter, C. Richard. 1973. ‘Inter-Party Competition and Electoral Turnout: The Case of Indiana’. American Journal of Political Science 17(2):351–366.Google Scholar
Hopkins, Daniel J., and King, Gary. 2010. ‘A Method of Automated Nonparametric Content Analysis for Social Science’. American Journal of Political Science 54(1):229–247.Google Scholar
Huang, Taofang, and Shaw, Daron. 2009. ‘Beyond the Battlegrounds? Electoral College Strategies in the 2008 Presidential Election’. Journal of Political Marketing 8:272–291.Google Scholar
Huckfeldt, Robert, Carmines, Edward G., Mondak, Jeffery J., and Zeemering, Eric. 2007. ‘Information, Activation, and Electoral Competition in the 2002 Congressional Elections’. The Journal of Politics 69(3):798–812.Google Scholar
Huddy, Leonie, and Mason, Lilliana. 2008. ‘Heated Campaign Politics: An Intergroup Conflict Model of Partisan Emotions’. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association 2008 Annual Meeting, Boston, Massachusetts, August 28, 2008.Google Scholar
Huddy, Leonie, Feldman, Stanley, and Cassese, Erin. 2006. ‘On the Distinct Political Effects of Anxiety and Anger’. In Ann Crigler, Michael MacKuen, George E. Marcus and W. Russell Neuman (eds), The Affect Effect: Dynamics of Emotion in Political Thinking and Behavior. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
King, Gary, and Lowe, Will. 2003. ‘An Automated Information Extraction Tool for International Conflict Data with Performance as Good as Human Coders: A Rare Events Evaluation Design’. International Organization 57(3):617–642.Google Scholar
Lake, Ronald, and Huckfeldt, Robert. 1998. ‘Social Capital, Social Networks, and Political Participation’. Political Psychology 19(3):567–584.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lazer, David, Pentland, Alex (Sandy), Adamic, Lada, Aral, Sinan, Barabasi, Albert Laszlo, Brewer, Devon, Christakis, Nicholas, Contractor, Noshir, Fowler, James, Gutmann, Myron, Jebara, Tony, King, Gary, Macy, Michael, Roy, Deb, and Van Alstyne, Marshall. 2009. ‘Life in the Network: The Coming Age of Computational Social Science’. Science 323(5915):721–723.Google Scholar
Leighley, Jan E. 1990. ‘Social Interaction and Contextual Influences on Political Participation’. American Politics Research 18(4):459–475.Google Scholar
Lenhart, Amanda. 2009. ‘Adults and Social Network Websites’. Technical report, Pew Research Center Internet and American Life Project.Google Scholar
Lerner, Jennifer S., and Keltner, Dacher. 2001. ‘Fear, Anger and Risk’. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 81(1):146–159.Google Scholar
Lerner, Jennifer S., Gonzalez, Roxana M., Small, Deborah A., and Fischhoff, Baruch. 2003. ‘Effects of Fear and Anger on Perceived Risks of Terrorism: A National Field Experiment’. Psychological Science 14:144–150.Google Scholar
Lipsitz, Keena Lipsitz. 2009. ‘The Consequences of Battleground and “Spectator” State Residency for Political Participation’. Political Behavior 31(2):187–209.Google Scholar
Lyman, Peter, and Varian, Hal R.. 2003. ‘How Much Information 2003?’ Technical report, University of California, Berkeley, CA.Google Scholar
Madden, Mary. 2010. ‘Older Adults and Social Media Social Networking Use Among Those Ages 50 and Older Nearly Doubled Over the Past Year’. Technical report, Pew Research Center Internet and American Life Project.Google Scholar
Masket, Seth E. 2009. ‘Did Obama’s Ground Game Matter?’. Public Opinion Quarterly 73(5):1023–1039.Google Scholar
McLeod, Jack M., Scheufele, Dietram A., and Moy, Patricia. 1999. ‘Community, Communication, and Participation: The Role of Mass Media and Interpersonal Discussion in Local Political Participation’. Political Communication 16:315–336.Google Scholar
Panagopoulos, Costas. 2009. ‘Campaign Dynamics in Battleground and Nonbattleground States’. Public Opinion Quarterly 73(1):119–129.Google Scholar
Patterson, Samuel C., and Caldeira, Gregory A.. 1983. ‘Getting Out the Vote: Participation in Gubernatorial Elections’. American Political Science Review 77(3):675–689.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Patterson, Samuel C., and Caldeira, Gregory A.. 1984. ‘The Etiology of Partisan Competition’. American Political Science Review 78(3):691–707.Google Scholar
Plutzer, Eric. 2002. ‘Becoming a Habitual Voter: Inertia, Resources, and Growth in Young Adulthood’. American Political Science Review 96(1):41–56.Google Scholar
Prior, Markus. 2010. ‘You’ve Either Got It or You Don’t? The Stability of Political Interest Over the Life Cycle’. The Journal of Politics 72(3):747–766.Google Scholar
Rosenstone, Steven J., and Hansen, John M.. 1993. Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in America. New York, NY: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Ryan, Timothy J. 2011. ‘What Makes Us Click? Demonstrating Incentives for Angry Discourse with Digital-Age Field Experiments’. Journal of Politics 74(4):1138–1152.Google Scholar
Scheufele, Dietram A., Nisbet, Matthew C., Brossard, Dominique, and Nisbet, Erik C.. 2004. ‘Social Structure and Citizenship: Examining the Impacts of Social Setting, Network Heterogeneity, and Informational Variables on Political Participation’. Political Communication 21:315–338.Google Scholar
Settle, Jaime E., Fariss, Christopher J., Bond, Robert M., Jones, Jason J., Fowler, James H., Coviello, Lorenzo, Kramer, Adam D. I., and Marlow, Cameron. 2011. ‘Quantifying Political Discussion from the Universe of Facebook Status Updates’. Paper presented at the American Political Science Association annual meeting; Seattle, Washington. August 31–September 4, 2011.Google Scholar
Shaw, Daron. 1999. ‘The Effect of TV Ads and Candidate Appearances on Statewide Presidential Votes, 1988–96’. The American Political Science Review 93(2):345–361.Google Scholar
Shaw, Daron. 2006. The Race to 270: The Electoral College and the Campaign Strategies of 2000 and 2004. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Silberman, Jonathan, and Durden, Garey. 1975. ‘The Rational Behavior Theory of Voter Participation: The Evidence from Congressional Elections’. Public Choice 23(1):101–108.Google Scholar
Valentino, Nicholas A., Brader, Ted, Groenendyk, Eric W., Gregorowicz, Krysha, and Hutchings, Vincent L.. 2011. ‘Election Night’s Alright for Fighting: The Role of Emotions in Political Participation’. The Journal of Politics 73(1):156–170.Google Scholar
Verba, Sidney, Schlozman, Kay L., and Brady, Henry. 1995. Voice and Equality: Civic Volunteerism in American Politics. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Wolak, Jennifer. 2006. ‘The Consequences of Presidential Battleground Strategies for Citizen Engagement’. Political Research Quarterly 59:353–361.Google Scholar
Yang, Jaewon, and Leskovec, Jure. 2011. ‘Patterns of Temporal Variation in Online Media’, ACM International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining (WSDM), February 9–12, 2011, Hong Kong, China.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Settle et al Datasets

Settle et al Datasets

http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/26546
Link
Supplementary material: PDF

Settle supplementary material

Settle supplementary material 1

Download Settle supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 343.5 KB