Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-tf8b9 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-21T23:16:15.787Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Fraud and Monitoring in Non-competitive Elections*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 September 2014

Andrew T. Little
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This article develops a game-theoretic model that reconciles three facts: (1) fraud is pervasive in non-competitive elections, (2) domestic and international monitoring of elections have become nearly universal and (3) incumbent regimes often invite monitoring and still cheat. The incumbent regime commits fraud to manipulate the information generated by a non-competitive election before a political interaction with some audience. The audience expects fraud, so the incumbent commits fraud because she would appear weak if not doing so. Increasing the visibility of fraud with monitoring is valuable because it lowers the equilibrium level of costly fraud without changing how popular the incumbent appears. The core results hold under multiple extensions, which produce a rich set of comparative static results.

Type
Original Articles
Information
Political Science Research and Methods , Volume 3 , Issue 1 , January 2015 , pp. 21 - 41
Copyright
Copyright © The European Political Science Association 2014 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*Andrew Little is Assistant Professor, Department of Government, Cornell University, 301 White Hall, Ithaca NY 14853 ([email protected]). Previous versions of this article were presented at the 2011 Midwest Political Science Association Meeting (with the title “Rational Expectations and Electoral Fraud”), the 2011 Empirical Implications of Theoretical Models Summer Institute at the University of Chicago Harris School, the 2011 American Political Science Association Meeting and the NYU Job Market Paper Workshop. Many thanks to participants in these seminars, as well as Bernd Beber, Tiberiu Dragu, Marko Klašnja, S.P. Harish, James Hollyer, Burt Monroe, Adam Przeworski, Alberto Simpser, Hannah Simpson, Fredrik Sjoberg, Alastair Smith, Mike Tiernay, Dustin Tingley and Josh Tucker for comments and discussion. Supplemental material can be found at http://andrewtlittle.com/research.html

References

ACE Electoral Knowledge Network. 2012. ‘Electoral Management Data’. http://aceproject.org/epic-enGoogle Scholar
Ashworth, Scott. 2005. ‘Reputational Dynamics and Political Careers’. Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization 21(2):441–466.Google Scholar
Au, Alex. 2011. ‘Counting Agent Me’. Yawning Bread. Available at http://yawningbread.wordpress.com/2011/05/08/counting-agent-me/Google Scholar
Bjornlund, Eric C. 2004. Beyond Free and Fair: Monitoring Elections and Building Democracy. Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson Center Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blaydes, Lisa A. 2011. Elections and Distributive Politics in Mubarak's Egypt. Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Bueno De Mesquita, Ethan. 2010. ‘Regime Change and Revolutionary Entrepreneurs’. American Political Science Review 108(3):446–466.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carothers, Thomas. 1997. ‘The Observers Observed’. Journal of Democracy 8(3):17–31.Google Scholar
Daxecker, Ursula E. 2012. ‘The Cost of Exposing Cheating: International Election Monitoring, Fraud, and Post-Election Violence in in Africa’. Journal of Peace Research 49(4):503–516.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Donno, Daniela. 2010. ‘Who is Punished? Regional Intergovernmental Organizations and the Enforcement of Democratic Norms’. International Organization 64(4):593–625.Google Scholar
Dragu, TiberiuPolborn, Mattias. 2013. ‘The Administrative Foundation of the Rule of Law’. The Journal of Politics 74(4):1038–1050.Google Scholar
Egorov, Georgy, Sonin, Konstantin. 2011. ‘Incumbency Advantage in Non-Democracies’. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the MPSA, Chicago, IL 31 March–3 April.Google Scholar
Enikolopov, Ruben, Korovkin, Vasily, Petrova, Maria, Sonin, KonstantinZakharov, Alexei. 2013. ‘Field Experiment Estimate of Electoral Fraud in Russian Parliamentary Elections’. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110(2):448–452.Google Scholar
Fearon, James. 2011. ‘Self-Enforcing Democracy’. Quarterly Journal of Economics 126(4):1661–1708.Google Scholar
Gandhi, JenniferLust-Okar, Ellen. 2009. ‘Elections Under Authoritarianism’. Annual Review of Political Science 12:403–422.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gandhi, Jennifer, Przeworski, Adam. 2009. ‘Holding onto Power by Any Means? The Origin of Competitive Elections’. Unpublished manuscript, New York University.Google Scholar
Gehlbach, ScottSimpser, Alberto. 2013. ‘Electoral Manipulation as Bureaucratic Control’. American Journal of Political Science,doi:10.1111/ajps.12122.Google Scholar
Guriev, SergeiRachinsky, Andre. 2005. ‘The Role of Oligarchs in Russian Capitalism’. Journal of Economic Perspectives 19(1):131–150.Google Scholar
Herron, Erik S. 2010. ‘The Effect of Passive Observation Methods on Azerbaijan's 2008 Presidential Election and 2009 Referendum’. Electoral Studies 29:417–424.Google Scholar
Holmstrom, Bengt. 1999. ‘Managerial Incentive Problems: A Dynamic Perspective’. Review of Economic Studies 66(1):169–182.Google Scholar
Hyde, Susan D. 2007. ‘The Observer Effect in International Politics: Evidence from a Natural Experiment’. World Politics 60(1):37–63.Google Scholar
Hyde, Susan D.. 2011. ‘Catch Us if You Can: Election Monitoring and International Norm Creation’. American Journal of Political Science 55(2):356–369.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hyde, Susan D.. 2012. The Pseudo-Democrat's Dilemma: Why Election Observation Became an International Norm. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Hyde, Susan D.Marinov, Nikolay. 2014. ‘Information and Self-Enforcing Democracy: the Role of International Election Observation’. International Organization 68:329–359.Google Scholar
Kelley, Judith. 2008. ‘Assessing the Complex Evolution of Norms: The Rise of International Election Monitoring’. International Organization 62:221–255.Google Scholar
Kelley, Judith. 2009. ‘D-Minus Elections: The Politics and Norms of International Election Observation’. International Organization 63:765–787.Google Scholar
Kelley, Judith. 2010. ‘Election Observers and their Biases’. Journal of Democracy 21(3):158–172.Google Scholar
Khodorkovsky, Mikahil. 2012. ‘What Is at Stake in the Russian Election?’ International Herald Tribune, 26 February. Available at http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/27/opinion/27iht-edkhodorkovsky27.htmlGoogle Scholar
Korolyov, Alexei. 2012. ‘Russian Monitors: Putin “Would Still Win” Despite Fraud’. RIA Novosti, 6 March. Available at http://en.rian.ru/russia/20120307/171833877.htmlGoogle Scholar
Kuhn, Patrick M. 2012. ‘To Protest or Not: The Election Losers’ Dilemma’. Unpublished manuscript, University of Rochester.Google Scholar
Lehoucq, Fabrice. 2003. ‘Electoral Fraud: Causes, Types, and Consequences’. Annual Review of Political Science 6:233–256.Google Scholar
Little, Andrew T. 2014. ‘An Informational Theory of Non-competitive Elections’. Unpublished manuscript, New York University.Google Scholar
Little, Andrew T.. 2012. ‘Elections, Fraud, and Election Monitoring in the Shadow of Revolution’. Quarterly Journal of Political Science 7(3):249–283.Google Scholar
Little, Andrew T., Tucker, Joshua, LaGatta, Tom. 2012. ‘Elections, Protest and Alternation of Power’. Paper presented at the 2012 European Political Science Association Meeting, Berlin, Germany, 21–23 June.Google Scholar
Lohmann, Susanne. 1998. ‘Rationalizing the Political Business Cycle: A Workhorse Model’. Economics and Politcs 10(1):1–17.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Magaloni, Beatriz. 2006. Voting for Autocracy: Hegemonic Party Survival and its Demise in Mexico.Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Magaloni, Beatriz. 2009. ‘The Game of Electoral Fraud and the Ousting of Authoritarian Rule’. American Journal of Political Science 54(3):751–765.Google Scholar
Myagkov, Mikhail, Ordeshook, Peter C.Shakin, Dimitri. 2009. The Forensics of Election Fraud: Russia and Ukraine.Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. 2012. Russian Federation, Presidential Election – 4 March 2012: Statement of Preliminary Findings and Conclusion.Google Scholar
Pano News. 2012. ‘Observers Detail Flaws in Russian Election’. 5 March. Available at http://newspano.com/news/observers-detail-flaws-in-russian-electionGoogle Scholar
Prendergast, Canice. 1999. ‘The Provision of Incentives in Firms’. Journal of Economic Literature 1:7–63.Google Scholar
Rozenas, Arturas. 2011. ‘Forcing Consent: Information and Power in Non-Democratic Elections’. Unpublished manuscript, Duke University.Google Scholar
Schedler, Andreas. 2002. ‘The Menu of Manipulation’. Journal of Democracy 13(2):36–50.Google Scholar
Simpser, Alberto. 2005. ‘Making Votes Not Count: Strategic Incentives for Electoral Corruption’. PhD Dissertation, Stanford University.Google Scholar
Simpser, Alberto. 2013. Why Governments and Parties Manipulate Elections: Theory, Practice, and Implications. Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Sjoberg, Fredrik M. 2012. ‘Autocratic Adaptation: The Strategic Use of Transparency and the Persistence of Election Fraud’. Electoral Studies 33:233–245.Google Scholar
Tucker, Joshua A. 2007. ‘Enough! Electoral Fraud, Collective Action Problems, and Post-Communist Colored Revolutions’. Perspectives on Politics 5(3):535–551.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Little Supplementary Material

Supplementary Material

Download Little Supplementary Material(PDF)
PDF 402.2 KB