Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-lnqnp Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-25T17:51:10.791Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Choices that matter: Coalition formation and parties’ ideological reputations

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 January 2019

Albert Falcó-Gimeno  and
Pablo Fernandez-Vazquez
Albert Falcó-Gimeno
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, University of Barcelona, 08034Barcelona, Spain
Pablo Fernandez-Vazquez*
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA15260, USA
*
*Corresponding author. Email: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This paper examines how a party’s decision to enter a coalition government affects voter perceptions of the party’s policy position. We argue that, for the decision to change voter beliefs, it must be at odds with voters’ prior opinions about the party. Specifically, the party must join a coalition that is not the one voters perceive as the ideologically closest option. Otherwise, the party’s action simply confirms voters’ pre-existing beliefs. Hence, whether or not joining a coalition alters voter attitudes depends on the type of alternative coalitions the party could enter. We test the hypothesis using three complementary empirical strategies: a cross-country analysis of party reputations in five coalition-prone European countries, individual panel data, and a quasi-experimental test. All three empirical tests provide support for our claim. This paper contributes to our understanding of voter information processing, coalition politics, and party competition.

Type
Original Articles
Information
Political Science Research and Methods , Volume 8 , Issue 2 , April 2020 , pp. 285 - 300
Copyright
Copyright © The European Political Science Association, 2019

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Adams, J (2012) Causes and Electoral Consequences of Party Policy Shifts in Multiparty Elections: Theoretical Results and Empirical Evidence. Annual Review of Political Science 15(1), 401–419.10.1146/annurev-polisci-031710-101450CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Adams, J, Ezrow, LLeiter, D (2012) Partisan Sorting and Niche Parties in Europe. West European Politics 35(6), 1272–1294.10.1080/01402382.2012.713746CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Adams, J, Ezrow, LSomer-Topcu, Z (2011) Is Anybody Listening? Evidence that Voters do not Respond to European Parties’ Policy Programmes. American Journal of Political Science 55(2), 370–382.10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00489.xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Adams, J, Ezrow, LWleizen, C (2016) The Company You Keep: How Voters Infer Party Positions on European Integration from Governing Coalition Arrangements. American Journal of Political Science 60(4), 811–823.10.1111/ajps.12231CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alesina, ARosenthal, H (1989) Partisan Cycles in Congressional Elections and the Macroeconomy. American Political Science Review 83(02), 373–398.10.2307/1962396CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alesina, ARosenthal, H (1995) Partisan Politics, Divided Government, and the Economy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9780511720512CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Allern, EHAylott, N (2009) Overcoming the Fear of Commitment: Pre-electoral Coalitions in Norway and Sweden. Acta Politica 44(3), 259–285.10.1057/ap.2009.1CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Armstrong, DADuch, R (2010) Why Can Voters Anticipate Post-election Coalition Formation Likelihoods? Electoral Studies 29(3), 308–315.10.1016/j.electstud.2010.03.007CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bargsted, MAKedar, O (2009) Coalition-Targeted Duvergerian Voting: How Expectations Affect Voter Choice under Proportional Representation. American Journal of Political Science 53(2), 307–323.10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00372.xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Benoit, KLaver, M (2012) The Dimensionality of Political Space: Epistemological and Methodological Considerations. European Union Politics 13(2), 194–218.10.1177/1465116511434618CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Benoit, K, Laver, MMikhaylov, S (2009) Treating Words as Data with Error: Uncertainty in Text Statements of Policy Positions. American Journal of Political Science 53(2), 495–513.10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00383.xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brambor, T, Willam, RCGolder, M (2006) Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses. Political Analysis 14(1), 63–82.10.1093/pan/mpi014CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bräuninger, T (2005) A Partisan Model of Government Expenditure. Public Choice 125(3-4), 409–429.10.1007/s11127-005-3055-xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clinton, JD (2012) Using Roll Call Estimates to Test Models of Politics. Annual Review of Political Science 15, 79–99.10.1146/annurev-polisci-043010-095836CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clinton, J, Jackman, SRivers, D (2004) The Statistical Analysis of Roll Call Data. American Political Science Review 98(2), 355–370.10.1017/S0003055404001194CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cusack, TR (1997) Partisan Politics and Public Finance: Changes in Public Spending in the Industrialized Democracies, 1955–1989. Public choice 91(3-4), 375–395.10.1023/A:1004995814758CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dalton, RJMcAllister, I (2015) Random Walk or Planned Excursion? Continuity and Change in the Left-Right Positions of Political Parties. Comparative Political Studies 48(6), 759–787.10.1177/0010414014558257CrossRefGoogle Scholar
D Carpini, MXKeeter, S (1996) What Americans Know About Politics and Why it Matters. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Duch, RM, May, JArmstrong, DA (2010) Coalition-Directed Voting in Multiparty Democracies. American Political Science Review 104(04), 698–719.10.1017/S0003055410000420CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Falcó-Gimeno, AJurado, I (2011) Minority Governments and Budget Deficits: The role of the Opposition. European Journal of Political Economy 27(3), 554–565.10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2011.03.002CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Falcó-Gimeno, AMuñoz, J (2017) Show Me Your Friends: A Survey Experiment on the Effect of Coalition Signals. The Journal of Politics 79(4), 1454–1459.10.1086/693369CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fernandez-Vazquez, P (2014) And Yet It Moves The Effect of Election Platforms on Party Policy Images. Comparative Political Studies 47(14), 1919–1944.10.1177/0010414013516067CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fortunato, D (2017) ‘The Electoral Implications of Coalition Policy-Making.’ British Journal of Political Science doi:10.1017/S0007123416000430.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fortunato, DAdams, J (2015) How Voters’ Perceptions of Junior Coalition Partners Depend on the Prime Minister’s Position. European Journal of Political Research 54(3), 601–621.10.1111/1475-6765.12094CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fortunato, D, Lin, NStevenson, RT (2014) Political Knowledge in Coalition Democracies. Unpublished Manuscript, Rice University, Houston, TX, USA. http://www.randystevenson.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/knowledge.pdfGoogle Scholar
Fortunato, DStevenson, RT (2013) Perceptions of Partisan Ideologies: The Effect of Coalition Participation. American Journal of Political Science 57(2), 459–477.10.1111/j.1540-5907.2012.00623.xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gamson, W (1961) A Theory of Coalition Formation. American Sociological Review 26(3), 373–382.10.2307/2090664CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Glasgow, G, Golder, MGolder, SN (2012) ‘New Empirical Strategies for the Study of Parliamentary Government Formation.’ Political Analysis 20(2), 248–270.10.1093/pan/mpr058CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Glasgow, GGolder, SN (2015) A New Approach to the Study of Parties Entering Government. British Journal of Political Science 45(4), 739–754.10.1017/S0007123414000015CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grimmer, J (2013) Representational Style in Congress: What Legislators Say and Why It Matters. New York: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9781139207782CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grynaviski, JD (2010) Partisan Bonds: Political Reputations and Legislative Accountability. New York: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9780511676055CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Harbridge, LMalhotra, N (2011) Electoral Incentives and Partisan Conflict in Congress: Evidence from Survey Experiments. American Journal of Political Science 55(3), 494–510.10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00517.xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hetherington, MJ (2001) Resurgent Mass Partisanship: The Role of Elite Polarization. American Political Science Review 95(3), 619–631.10.1017/S0003055401003045CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Indridason, IH (2011) Coalition Formation and Polarisation. European Journal of Political Research 50(5), 689–718.10.1111/j.1475-6765.2011.01990.xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Iversen, TSoskice, D (2006) Electoral Institutions and the Politics of Coalition: Why Some Democracies Redistribute More Than Others. American Political Science Review 100(2), 165–181.10.1017/S0003055406062083CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Klingemann, H-D, Richard, IHBudge, I (1994) Parties, Policies, and Democracy. Boulder, CO: Westview.Google Scholar
Lachat, R (2008) The Impact of Party Polarization on Ideological Voting. Electoral Studies 27(4), 687–698.10.1016/j.electstud.2008.06.002CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lederer, WKüchenhoff, H (2006) A Short Introduction to the SIMEX and MCSIMEX. The Newsletter of the R Project 6(4), 26.Google Scholar
Levendusky, M (2009) The Partisan Sort: How Liberals Became Democrats and Conservatives Became Republicans. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.10.7208/chicago/9780226473673.001.0001CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lupu, N (2014) Brand Dilution and the Breakdown of Political Parties in Latin America. World Politics 66(4), 561–602.10.1017/S0043887114000197CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Martin, LWRandolph, TS (2001) Government Formation in Parliamentary Democracies. American Journal of Political Science 45(1), 33–50.10.2307/2669358CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Müller, WCStrøm, KM (1999) Policy, Office, or Votes?: How Political Parties in Western Europe Make Hard Decisions. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9780511625695CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nannestad, PPaldam, M (2003) The Cost of Ruling. In Michael Taylor Hans (ed.), Economic Voting. Dorussen: Routledge.Google Scholar
Paldam, MSkott, P (1995) A Rational-Voter Explanation of the Cost of Ruling. Public Choice 83(1-2), 159–172.10.1007/BF01047690CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Poole, KTRosenthal, H (2007) Ideology and Congress. New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers.Google Scholar
Powell, GBWhitten, GD (1993) A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context. American Journal of Political Science 37(2), 391–414.10.2307/2111378CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Prior, M (2005) News vs. Entertainment: How Increasing Media Choice Widens Gaps in Political Knowledge and Turnout. American Journal of Political Science 49(3), 577–592.10.1111/j.1540-5907.2005.00143.xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Prior, M (2007) Post-broadcast Democracy: How Media Choice Increases Inequality in Political Involvement and Polarizes Elections. New York: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9781139878425CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sagarzazu, IKlüver, H (2017) Coalition Governments and Party Competition: Political Communication Strategies of Coalition Parties. Political Science Research and Methods 5(2), 333–349.10.1017/psrm.2015.56CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Singh, SPThornton, JR (2016) Strange Bedfellows: Coalition Makeup and Perceptions of Democratic Performance among Electoral Winners. Electoral Studies 42, 114–125.10.1016/j.electstud.2016.01.008CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Soroka, SNWlezien, C (2010) Degrees of Democracy: Politics, Public Opinion, and Policy. New York: Cambridge University Press.10.1093/oxfordhb/9780195335354.003.0015CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Spoon, J-JKlüver, H (2016) Does Anybody Notice? How Policy Positions of Coalition Parties Are Perceived by Voters. European Journal of Political Research 56(1), 115–132.10.1111/1475-6765.12169CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stevenson, RT (2002) The Cost of Ruling, Cabinet Duration, and the “Median-Gap” Model. Public Choice 113(1-2), 157–178.10.1023/A:1020351406757CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tavits, M (2007) Clarity of Responsibility and Corruption. American Journal of Political Science 51(1), 218–229.10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00246.xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Van der Eijk, C, Schmitt, HBinder, T (2005) Left-right Orientations and Party Choice. In Jacques Thomassen (ed), The European Voter. A Comparative Study of Modern Democracies, 167–91. New York: Oxford University Press.10.1093/0199273219.003.0007CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wlezien, C (1995) The Public as Thermostat: Dynamics of Preferences for Spending. American Journal of Political Science 39(4), 981–1000.10.2307/2111666CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zaller, JR (1992) The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. New York: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9780511818691CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Falcó-Gimeno and Fernandez-Vazquez Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/ECGSUB
Link