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After defeat: how governing parties respond to electoral loss

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 November 2021

Yotam Margalit ,
Tara Slough Open the ORCID record for Tara Slough [Opens in a new window]  and
Michael M. Ting Open the ORCID record for Michael M. Ting [Opens in a new window]
Yotam Margalit*
Affiliation:
Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
Tara Slough
Affiliation:
New York University, New York, USA
Michael M. Ting
Affiliation:
Columbia University, New York, USA
*
*Corresponding author. Email: [email protected]
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Abstract

How do governing parties respond in terms of ideological positioning when voted out of office? We study both theoretically and empirically the factors that shape parties’ responses following a loss. Studying national elections in advanced industrialized democracies over the past 70 years, we show that parties tend to counter their pre-election shifts, and do so particularly strongly following defeat. The extent of these ideological shifts is more limited in parties with a larger selectorate voting on the party leadership. Moreover, we find that subsequent to loss, parties are less likely to run on a centrist platform. Notably, shifting away from the center is associated with a higher probability of returning to power. We then introduce a dynamic model of party leadership selection and platform positioning. The model produces patterns of ideological positions over time that are consistent with our empirical findings.

Keywords

Political partiesideological positioningintraparty governanceselectorateleadership selection
Type
Original Article
Information
Political Science Research and Methods , Volume 10 , Issue 4 , October 2022 , pp. 739 - 758
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the European Political Science Association

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