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On Causality in the Study of Valence and Voting Behavior: An Introduction to the Symposium*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 December 2015

Christopher Wlezien
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Abstract

Evans and Chzhen (2016a) challenge Clarke et al.’s (Clarke et al. 2004; Clarke et al. 2009) “valence” model of voting behavior in British elections. Specifically, they take issue with results based on individual-level analyses relating subjective performance assessments to the (self-reported) vote measured concurrently. The argument is a basic one: there is reason to think that evaluations of performance are caused by—and not causes of—the vote. That this may be true is supported by a large and growing body of research in political science, much of which focuses on economic voting (e.g., Campbell et al. 1960; Kramer 1983; Wlezien et al. 1997; Bartels 2002; Anderson, Mendes and Tverdova 2004; Evans and Andersen 2006; Ladner and Wlezien 2007; Evans and Pickup 2010). Estimates of valence effects in Clarke et al.’s individual-level analyses thus may be correspondingly biased. It is an important issue for the study of valence and also other electoral research relying on perceptual and attitudinal predictors.

Type
Original Articles
Information
Political Science Research and Methods , Volume 4 , Issue 1 , January 2016 , pp. 195 - 197
Copyright
© The European Political Science Association 2015 

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Footnotes

*

Christopher Wlezien, Hogg Professor of Government, University of Texas at Austin ([email protected]). The author thanks Vera Troeger for making him write this article and for her guidance and comments as well, and also Harold Clarke and Geoff Evans for various conversations on the subject over the years, all of which have left their marks.

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